NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, April 1st
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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San Antonio at Orlando – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -9, 198 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Oladipo-Harris-Dedmon-Vucevic
| San Antonio | Orlando | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198 |  | Vegas Total | 198 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -9.0 | Vegas Sprd | 9.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.5 | Team Proj. | 94.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.88 | Team Pace | 95.96 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Tiago Splitter | Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Victor Oladipo | Tobias Harris | Dewayne Dedmon | Nikola Vucevic | |
| Opp. Season | 23 | 12 | 30 | 21 | 22 | Opp. Season | 10 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 12 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 18 | 24 | 29 | 3 | Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 23 | 1 | 28 | 5 | |
San Antonio
The Spurs picked up a win over the Heat in Miami last night and now have to turn around and play the Magic tonight. We all know the risks associated with rostering Spurs’ players in back-to-back situations, but the Spurs still have a lot to play for, so I’m expecting the starters to see their usual complement of minutes. The bigger concern is a potential blowout, as these two teams are trending in opposite directions. On a night with 12 games on the schedule, Kawhi Leonard is the only Spurs’ player on my radar tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Orlando)
Record: 22-52
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.1 (Rank: 25)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 26
Rebounding Differential Rank: 25
Elite Plays
Kawhi Leonard (FD: $8200, DK: $8100 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 22.8)
As mentioned above, the Spurs are playing in the second half of back-to-back road games, which really hurts the appeal of the veteran players (Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili). Leonard should still be in line for his 33-35 minutes tonight against the Magic. Leonard has been terrific in his last ten games, averaging 36 fantasy points per contest. He is the premier small forward option tonight, as the Magic are ranked dead last against small forwards this season.
Secondary Plays
None
Orlando
The Magic have lost three games in a row and nine of their last ten. They are counting down the days until the end of the regular season. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if they forgot to show up tonight against the Spurs, who are ranked tenth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. The Magic are only projected to score 94 points tonight, which is one of the lowest team totals on the board tonight. I’ll be avoiding Orlando in lieu of more favorable matchups.
Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Record: 47-26
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.4 (Rank: 6)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Philadelphia at Washington – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Washington -10.5, 193 Over/Under
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Smith-Sampson-Grant-Noel-Aldemir
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
| Philadelphia | Washington | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193 |  | Vegas Total | 193 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 10.5 | Vegas Sprd | -10.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 91.3 | Team Proj. | 101.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.31 | Team Pace | 96.03 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ish Smith | Jakarr Sampson | Jerami Grant | Nerlens Noel | Furkan Aldemir | Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 3 | Opp. Season | 24 | 28 | 15 | 25 | 30 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 16 | 23 | 10 | 12 | Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 2 | 22 | 19 | 28 | |
Philadelphia
The Sixers have stayed competitive in recent weeks, but they are a tough team to target for fantasy production. They have a deep and inconsistent rotation, as they are giving their young players all a chance to show their talent. The Sixers are double-digit underdogs tonight against the Wizards, who own a top ten defense this season. Nerlens Noel, Ish Smith, and Furkan Aldemir are all decent tournament targets, but all Sixers can safely be avoided in cash games.
Opponent Breakdown (Washington)
Record: 41-33
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.8 (Rank: 9)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 4
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Nerlens Noel (FD: $8400, DK: $8000) and Ish Smith (FD: $6000, DK: $6100) both offer nice upside at their price points. Both players are decent targets in tournaments.
Washington
The Wizards continue to drop in the standings and are now on the outside looking to host a first-round playoff series. While they haven’t been playing their best basketball, they should have no problem getting past the Sixers tonight. The Wizards are 10.5-point favorites in a game that features a low total of 193 points. A low total and a potential blowout is not exactly what we are looking to target in daily fantasy basketball. This may be a game to avoid altogether.
Opponent Breakdown (Philadelphia)
Record: 18-57
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.5 (Rank: 18)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Rebounding Differential Rank: 28
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
John Wall (FD: $9800, DK: $8800 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 25.4)
Wall is going to fly under the radar tonight, despite a favorable matchup against the Sixers. He may be a little to risky to use in cash games with the potential blowout, but he offers great upside at his price point. In his last ten games, he has averaged 43 fantasy points per contest. He has had good splits at home all season and the Sixers are ranked 24th against point guards this season.
Detroit at Charlotte – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Charlotte -4.5, 195.5 Over/Under
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jackson-Caldwell-Pope-Butler-Tolliver-Drummond
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Taylor-Williams-Jefferson
| Detroit | Charlotte | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 195.5 |  | Vegas Total | 195.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.5 | Team Proj. | 100.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.41 | Team Pace | 95.56 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Reggie Jackson | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Caron Butler | Anthony Tolliver | Andre Drummond | Proj Starter | Kemba Walker | Gerald Henderson | Jeffery Taylor | Marvin Williams | Al Jefferson | |
| Opp. Season | 15 | 9 | 3 | 19 | 6 | Opp. Season | 4 | 15 | 17 | 29 | 29 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 8 | 25 | 15 | 20 | Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 15 | 18 | 17 | 23 | |
Detroit
The Pistons picked up a win last night and now have to turn around and face the Hornets tonight. Reggie Jackson was dealing with nausea in last night’s game, but should be able to suit up tonight. This is a difficult matchup for fantasy production, as the Hornets play at a relatively slow pace. Charlotte is also ranked 12th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The two usual suspects are in play here, but both are secondary options at their respective positions.
Opponent Breakdown (Charlotte)
Record: 31-42
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.4 (Rank: 6)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Andre Drummond (FD: $9400, DK: $8900 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 21.6)
Drummond has an elevated price tag and he is playing in the tail end of a back-to-back. His ownership level should be very low in tonight’s large slate of games. I’m not too concerned about the back-to-back, as he only played 31 minutes last night against the Hawks. His splits in back-to-back situations are also very close to his season averages. He has as much upside as any center in the player pool tonight and I don’t mind paying a premium for him in tournaments.
Reggie Jackson (FD: $8600, DK: $8700 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 24.3)
Jackson was only able to log 22 minutes last night against the Hawks, as he battled his way through nausea. He was still productive in those minutes, scoring 12 points and dishing out 11 assists. He has been a lock for 40+ fantasy points basically every night in the last couple of weeks. As long as he is in the starting lineup tonight, he deserves consideration against the Hornets.
Charlotte
The Hornets have lost seven of their last ten games and are now two full games behind the Nets for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. They desperately need a win tonight to stay in contention. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Cody Zeller have both been ruled out of tonight’s game against the Pistons. This is a mediocre matchup, as the Pistons are ranked right at the league average in points allowed per game.
Opponent Breakdown (Detroit)
Record: 28-45
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.7 (Rank: 15)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11
Elite Plays
Kemba Walker (FD: $8400, DK: $7500 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.9)
The Hornets continue to lose games, but it hasn’t been due to the play of Walker. In his last six games, he has averaged 38 fantasy points in 36 minutes per contest. With the Hornets in must-win mode, Walker should log heavy minutes again tonight. He draws a decent matchup against the Pistons, who have struggled defensively over the last few weeks. Walker has an elevated price on FanDuel, but he’s sitting at a very playable $7,500 on DraftKings.
Gerald Henderson (FD: $5600, DK: $5700 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 20.4)
Henderson should continue to benefit with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist out of the lineup. In his last six games, Henderson has averaged 26 fantasy points in 35 minutes per contest. He is listed as a shooting guard on DraftKings and a small forward on FanDuel. He deserves consideration on both sites, especially in cash games.
Secondary Plays
Marvin Williams (FD: $4600, DK: $4700 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 13.1)
With Cody Zeller and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist out, Wiliams will continue to see extended playing time. His price has come up across the industry, but the still only needs roughly 22 fantasy points to reach value. He’s certainly capable of that tonight, as he has scored at least 24 fantasy points in each of his last three games.
Indiana at Boston – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Boston -3, 201.5 Over/Under
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Miles-Hill-West-Hibbert
- Boston Proj. Starters – Smart-Bradley-Turner-Bass-Zeller
| Indiana | Boston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201.5 |  | Vegas Total | 201.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.3 | Team Proj. | 102.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.67 | Team Pace | 98.35 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | George Hill | C.J. Miles | Solomon Hill | David West | Roy Hibbert | Proj Starter | Marcus Smart | Avery Bradley | Evan Turner | Brandon Bass | Tyler Zeller | |
| Opp. Season | 21 | 3 | 16 | 22 | 25 | Opp. Season | 14 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 21 | 4 | 25 | 16 | Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 7 | |
Indiana
Much like the Hornets, the Pacers have fallen apart over the last couple of weeks. They have lost eight of their last ten games and are now a game and a half behind the Nets. Tonight they head to Boston to take on the Celtics, who are also fighting for one of those final two playoff spots in the Eastern Conference. The Pacers are 3-point underdogs in a game that has a total of 201 points. This is a favorable matchup by most metrics, as the Celtics are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game and rebounding differential.
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 33-41
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.6 (Rank: 24)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19
Elite Plays
George Hill (FD: $7400, DK: $7500 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 25.5)
Hopefully someone took my advice last night and targeted Hill. He had a 40-fantasy point outing against the Nets. He continues to be under-owned on all sites, despite averaging 38 fantasy points per game in his last six outings. Hill remains an elite play in my eyes, as he takes on a Celtics’ defense that is ranked 21st against point guards this season.
Secondary Plays
David West (FD: $5600, DK: $5600 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 21.3)
West has been a big disappointment this season, but he seems to be turning a corner in terms of fantasy production. In his last three games, he has averaged 29 fantasy points in 28 minutes per contest. He should see close to 30 minutes again tonight against a very beatable frontcourt of the Celtics. He’s a fine cash game option tonight at power forward.
Boston
If I had a list of my least targeted teams throughout the course of the NBA season, the Celtics would be right there at the top. While they do play at a fast pace, they are a team with a very deep rotation. They are also a team that is full of inconsistent fantasy options. The Celtics draw a tough matchup against the defensive-minded Pacers tonight. Once again, I will be avoiding the Celtics in lieu of more predictable fantasy options.
Opponent Breakdown (Indiana)
Record: 32-41
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.3 (Rank: 5)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 7
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Brooklyn at New York – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Brooklyn -10, 194 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Brown-Johnson-Young-Lopez
- New York Proj. Starters – Larkin-Galloway-Thomas-Bargnani-Amundson
| Brooklyn | New York | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194 |  | Vegas Total | 194 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -10.0 | Vegas Sprd | 10.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.0 | Team Proj. | 92.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.98 | Team Pace | 93.51 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Markel Brown | Joe Johnson | Thaddeus Young | Brook Lopez | Proj Starter | Shane Larkin | Langston Galloway | Lance Thomas | Andrea Bargnani | Louis Amundson | |
| Opp. Season | 19 | 24 | 2 | 7 | 23 | Opp. Season | 12 | 26 | 10 | 28 | 19 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 30 | 13 | 12 | 15 | Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 12 | 30 | 16 | 6 | |
Brooklyn
The Nets have won eight of their last ten games and have climbed all the way up to the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference standings. They are looking for their fifth win in a row tonight, as they head to New York to take on the hapless Knicks. The Nets are 10-point favorites in a game that features a low total of 194 points. There is the potential for this game to turn into a blowout, but the matchup is certainly enticing. The Knicks are ranked 23rd in points allowed per game and 28th in rebounding differential.
Opponent Breakdown (New York)
Record: 14-60
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.4 (Rank: 23)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 29
Rebounding Differential Rank: 28
Elite Plays
Brook Lopez (FD: $8200, DK: $8000 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 26.7)
Lopez has an elevated price point, but until he stops producing at an elite level, he should continue to be targeted in all league formats. In his last seven games, he has averaged 47 fantasy points per contest. During that stretch, he has topped the 40-fantasy point mark four times. He should continue his high level of play tonight against the Knicks.
Secondary Plays
Deron Williams (FD: $6200, DK: $5800 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.4)
My hope is that Williams will fly under the radar again tonight. He has quietly scored at least 30 fantasy points in six of his last eight games. He also draws a terrific matchup against the Knicks, who are ranked 19th against point guards. If this game stays relatively close, Williams could easily reach the 30-fantasy point mark again tonight.
Joe Johnson (FD: $5600, DK: $5800 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 21)
Johnson has been on fire over his last three games, scoring 39, 41, and 33 fantasy points. His price is still reflective of his recent slump, which allows us to buy low on the red-hot shooting guard. Johnson is very tough to stop when he is aggressive on the offensive end of the floor. His hot streak should continue tonight against the Knicks.
New York
The Knicks have lost seven games in a row, most by double-digits. They have the worst point differential in the NBA this season at -9.7. The intriguing part is that the number includes their wins. They have nothing to play for at this point of the season and no one would be surprised to see them on the wrong end of another blowout. With such a large slate of games, there is no reason to target any Knicks’ players in cash games tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Record: 32-40
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.6 (Rank: 19)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Andrea Bargnani (FD: $5700, DK: $5900), Langston Galloway (FD: $5900, DK: $5300), and Shane Larkin (FD: $4700, DK: $4100) are all decent targets in tournaments. If the Knicks are able to keep this game close, it will likely be thanks to the play of these three individuals.