NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, April 22nd
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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Brooklyn at Atlanta – 7:00 PM ET
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -9.5, 202 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Brown-Johnson-Young-Lopez
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
| Brooklyn | Atlanta | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 202 |  | Vegas Total | 202 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.5 | Vegas Sprd | -9.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.3 | Team Proj. | 105.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.18 | Team Pace | 95.18 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Markel Brown | Joe Johnson | Thaddeus Young | Brook Lopez | Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | |
| Opp. Season | 16 | 17 | 11 | 13 | 10 | Opp. Season | 15 | 25 | 7 | 27 | 18 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 21 | Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 11 | |
Brooklyn
The Nets fell short in Game 1 against the Hawks, losing 92-99 in Atlanta. Vegas is expecting a similar fate for Brooklyn tonight, as the Nets are listed as 9.5-point underdogs. The matchup may not appear great on paper (Atlanta is ranked 5th in points allowed per game), but the uptick in minutes for the Nets’ starters more than makes up for the difficult matchup. In Game 1, Brook Lopez, Joe Johnson, and Thaddeus Young all played at least 36 minutes.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.2 (Rank: 5)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
Thaddeus Young (FanDuel: $6100, DraftKings: $6100 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 21.4)
Young played a whopping 40 minutes in the first game of the series, finishing with 15 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists, and a steal. While it’s tough to expect another double-double in Game 2 (Young is not a great rebounder), he may be able to improve on the rest of his statistics. I project him to see around 40 minutes again in Game 2, which is a 25% boost over his regular season average. He is priced to move on both FanDuel and DraftKings, which puts him in play at the stacked power forward position.
Joe Johnson (FD: $6000, DK: $5900 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 20.9)
Johnson played a game-high 42 minutes in the series opener, finishing with 17 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists, and 2 steals. He easily met value expectations for his price point and it doesn’t appear that the fantasy sites factored in his Game 1 outing when they set his salary. He only needs 30 fantasy points to reach value in Game 2, which he should reach with ease if he plays 40+ minutes like he did in Game 1.
Secondary Plays
Brook Lopez (FD: $8500, DK: $7800 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 26.5)
Deron Williams (FD: $6500, DK: $6700 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.4)
Atlanta
The Hawks didn’t exactly wow us with their Game 1 performance, but they won by seven to take a 1-0 lead in the series. While the Hawks did play nine players at least 11 minutes, we saw a boost in minutes for the starters. All five Hawks starters are in play in Game 2, as the Nets are one of the better matchups for fantasy production. Al Horford is dealing with an injured finger, after dislocating it in Game 1. He is expected to be in the lineup though, and it shouldn’t impact his fantasy production.
Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.1 (Rank: 19)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23
Elite Plays
Paul Millsap (FD: $7600, DK: $7000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.6)
It’s tough to rely on the production of a single game when predicting future performance. Millsap had a subpar outing by his standards in Game 1, but he was able to log 33 minutes and he didn’t appear to be hampered by his shoulder injury. I’m buying my shares of Millsap before the start of Game 2, as he both has a terrific matchup and an attractive price point. Millsap averaged 33.8 fantasy points during the regular season and he’ll likely see around 35 minutes in Game 2.
DeMarre Carroll (FD: $5900, DK: $6200 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 16.6)
Love is a strong word, but it’s safe to say that I LOVE both wing players on the Hawks heading into Game 2. Carroll finished the season strong and he kept the momentum going with 17 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 assists in the series opener. He is not priced up to the type of production that he has been putting up recently and he’s going to see an uptick in minutes now that the playoffs have started. Carroll provides a high floor and a high ceiling, making him an attractive target in all league formats.
Kyle Korver (FD: $5100, DK: $5400 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 14.2)
When Korver played in Utah, every married woman around had a huge crush in him. He said he had never experienced anything like that in his days as a professional basketball player. If he has another outing like he did in Game 1, I’ll join the club with a man-crush of my own. Korver finished the first game of the series with 38 fantasy points in 37 minutes of playing time. He is an easy plug tonight at shooting guard.
Secondary Plays
Al Horford (FD: $7000, DK: $7100 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.3)
Jeff Teague (FD: $6300, DK: $6800 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 24.9)
Portland at Memphis – 8:00 PM ET
- Vegas Line – Memphis -6, 189 Over/Under
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-McCollum-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Green-Randolph-Gasol
| Portland | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 189 |  | Vegas Total | 189 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.0 | Vegas Sprd | -6.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 91.5 | Team Proj. | 97.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.90 | Team Pace | 99.90 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Nicolas Batum | LaMarcus Aldridge | Robin Lopez | Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Jeff Green | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 6 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 2 | Opp. Season | 28 | 21 | 12 | 1 | 5 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 14 | 7 | Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 2 | 14 | 19 | 28 | |
Portland
The Blazers just don’t have enough firepower to keep up with the Grizzlies. Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge are the only Blazers’ starters that can create their own shots (the two combined for 55 shot attempts in Game 1), which makes it easy for the Grizzlies defensively. The Blazers only managed to score 86 points in the opener and they are only projected to score 91.5 points in Game 2. Arron Afflalo has been upgraded to questionable for this game, even though he says that his shoulder is only 70-80% healed.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.2 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
LaMarcus Aldridge (FD: $9200, DK: $9100 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 29.9)
Aldridge may have only shot 38% from the floor in Game 1, but when you put up 34 shot attempts, you are going to be productive even if you aren’t lighting it up from the floor. Aldridge played 42 minutes in the game and finished with 32 points, 14 rebounds, and 4 blocks. Despite the huge outing, he will likely be under-owned again in Game 2. Most people will gravitate to Blake Griffin as their expensive power forward option, which is understandable given their difference in matchups. Aldridge is a fine tournament play tonight.
Secondary Plays
Damian Lillard (FD: $7600, DK: $7600 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 26.6)
Memphis
The Grizzlies only shot 44% from the floor, but they still managed to put up 100 points against a very good Blazers’ defense in Game 1. The Grizzlies are listed as 6-point favorites in Game 2, with their team total set at 97.5 points. Mike Conley and Tony Allen are both expected to be in the lineup tonight, but both are nursing injuries. They are both risky fantasy options, as both saw less than 30 minutes of action in Game 1.
Opponent Breakdown (Portland)
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.4 (Rank: 11)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10
Elite Plays
Marc Gasol (FD: $8100, DK: $7900 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.7)
Gasol was projected to see one of the biggest boosts in minutes once the playoffs started. He averaged 34 minutes during the regular season and he’ll likely see 38-40 minutes per contest moving forward. He had a terrific fantasy outing in Game 1, finishing with 15 points, 11 rebounds, 7 assists, and 3 blocks. He’s one of those players that you can always count on for fantasy production, making him the top cash game option at center.
Zach Randolph (FD: $7100, DK: $7500 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 24.2)
Randolph got off to a slow start in Game 1, but he finished with a respectable 16 points and 11 rebounds in 36 minutes of playing time. He also sees a nice fantasy boost with his uptick in minutes and while the matchup against LaMarcus Aldridge may be difficult, the Grizzlies tend to lean on him during the playoffs. Randolph’s price is depressed heading into Game 2, making him an intriguing fantasy option, especially on sites that allow you to roster three power forwards.
Secondary Plays
Jeff Green (FD: $5000, DK: $5000 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.2)
San Antonio at L.A. Clippers – 10:30 PM ET
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -1.5, 207.5 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
| San Antonio | L.A. Clippers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207.5 |  | Vegas Total | 207.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.0 | Team Proj. | 104.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.88 | Team Pace | 100.88 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Tiago Splitter | Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | |
| Opp. Season | 2 | 18 | 27 | 15 | 12 | Opp. Season | 11 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 13 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 19 | 19 | 16 | 9 | Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 1 | 23 | 23 | 4 | |
San Antonio
The Spurs were out-worked and out-hustled in Game 1 against the Clippers. While it was only a single game, the Spurs are going to have a lot of work ahead of them if they are going to get out of the first round of the playoffs. Vegas has San Antonio listed as 1.5 point underdogs with the total for the game set at 207 points. The Spurs are projected to score 103 points in this game, which is the third-highest team total on the board. The Spurs should have a much better outing than they did in the series opener.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Clippers)
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.1 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
Kawhi Leonard (FD: $8300, DK: $8600 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 23)
Leonard’s price continues to climb across the industry, but his increase in minutes should make up for the elevated price point. He played 33 minutes in Game 1, but that number will likely be closer to 40 in what is expected to be a much closer Game 2. Leonard has gotten to a point where 35 fantasy points is a realistic expectation for his floor. He is far and away the best small forward option in this three-game slate.
Tim Duncan (FD: $7600, DK: $7700 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 22.4)
Duncan didn’t quite meet the minute expectation that we set for him in Game 1, but that was mainly due to the fact that the Spurs were down big at the end of the game. Duncan should see somewhere in the range of 32-35 minutes in Game 2, which is a sizable boost from his average on the season. Duncan has had great success against the Clippers all season and he is yet another strong play at the power forward position.
Secondary Plays
Tony Parker (FD: $5100, DK: $5500 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 24.8)
Manu Ginobili (FD: $4100, DK: $5100 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 23.6)
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers put on a clinic in Game 1, beating the defending-champion Spurs by 15 points. They will likely be in for a much tougher test in Game 2. This is expected to be the closest game of the night. It also has the highest total. Both are attributes of a game that we like to look for in DFS. The Clippers’ starters all saw a boost in minutes in Game 1 and we can project Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan, and Blake Griffin to all see around 40 minutes of action in Game 2.
Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.9 (Rank: 3)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
Chris Paul (FD: $10900, DK: $9900 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 23.6)
While Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan are certainly in play, I am leaning toward the cheaper options at their respective positions. For power forward, there is better value in Randolph, Duncan, Millsap, and Young. And at center, I basically have Marc Gasol locked and loaded in my cash games. That leaves us with Paul as the top fantasy option on the Clippers. He took over in Game 1, finishing with 50 fantasy points in 38 minutes of playing time. He loves to prove that he is still one of the best point guards in the NBA and we shouldn’t be surprised if he repeats his Game 1 performance tonight.
Secondary Plays
Blake Griffin (FD: $9900, DK: $9700 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 28.1)
DeAndre Jordan (FD: $9200, DK: $8400 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 13.4)