NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, April 29th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy point averages listed use FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.
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Brooklyn at Atlanta – 7:00 PM ET
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -9, 200 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Johnson-Bogdanovic-Young-Lopez
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
| Brooklyn | Atlanta | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 200 |  | Vegas Total | 200 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.0 | Vegas Sprd | -9.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.5 | Team Proj. | 104.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.75 | Team Pace | 95.75 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Joe Johnson | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Brook Lopez | Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 16 | 10 | 13 | 13 | Opp. Season | 14 | 24 | 7 | 28 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 15 | Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 9 | |
Brooklyn
The Nets picked up two tough wins at home to even the series at two games apiece, as we now head back to Atlanta for Game 5. Vegas has the Nets installed as 9-point underdogs with their team total set at only 95.5 points. If we’ve learned anything about this Nets’ team this series, it’s that they are one gritty bunch. They should be able to keep this game within striking distance, which would mean the usual allotment of minutes for the starters from both sides.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.2 (Rank: 5)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
Joe Johnson (FanDuel: $6700, DraftKings: $7500 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 20.9)
Johnson has been terrific in this series, scoring at least 31 fantasy points and playing at least 39 minutes in each of the first four games. His price has come up across the industry, but his increased playing time more than makes up for the elevated price point. The Nets can’t rely on Deron Williams to replicate his Game 4 performance and they will look to lean on Johnson offensively.
Thaddeus Young (FD: $6000, DK: $6500 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 21.4)
Young struggled in Game 2 of this series, but has averaged 30 fantasy points per contest in the other three. He should see around 40 minutes of playing time again tonight and his price is still at an affordable level on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He has a decent usage rate and he has been busy on the glass in this series, averaging over eight rebounds per game.
Bojan Bogdanovic (FD: $4400, DK: $4900 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 16.8)
There is little value to be had in tonight’s two-game slate, but Bogdanovic offers a nice salary cap relief option. Since entering the starting lineup, he has scored 30 and 25 fantasy points in the last two games in this series. He played a whopping 44 minutes in Game 4 and he’ll likely push for 40 minutes of action again tonight.
Secondary Plays
Brook Lopez (FD: $8800, DK: $8300 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 26.5)
Deron Williams (FD: $7100, DK: $6300 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.4)
Atlanta
The Hawks are getting more than they bargained for in their first round matchup against the Nets. They always say that the series never really starts until the home team loses a game and so far, the Hawks haven’t done that. They still have homecourt advantage and have a great chance to go up 3-2 with a win tonight at home. As these games get more and more important, I expect coach Mike Budenholzer to tighten his rotation up a bit.
Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.1 (Rank: 19)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23
Elite Plays
DeMarre Carroll (FD: $6100, DK: $6500 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 16.6)
Carroll has been steady in this series. He is averaging 15 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assists per game, while drawing a tough defensive assignment against Joe Johnson. Carroll is much better offensively than he’s given credit for and he has the ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet. He needs between 30-33 fantasy points to reach value expectations tonight, which is right around what he has averaged through the first four games.
Kyle Korver (FD: $5400, DK: $6100 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 14.2)
Korver struggled in Game 3 of the series, but he has scored at least 32 fantasy points in each of the other three games. Sites have yet to really adjust his price and he remains one of the top shooting guards options heading into Game 5. Korver can get hot at anytime, but he can also contribute in other areas. He is averaging 6 rebounds and 3 assists per game in this series.
Secondary Plays
Paul Millsap (FD: $8300, DK: $8100 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.6)
Al Horford (FD: $7100, DK: $7400 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.3)
Jeff Teague (FD: $6500, DK: $7000 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 24.9)
Portland at Memphis – 9:30 PM ET
- Vegas Line – Memphis -5.5, 190 Over/Under
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Afflalo-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Calathes-Lee-Allen-Randolph-Gasol
| Portland | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 190 |  | Vegas Total | 190 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.3 | Team Proj. | 97.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 93.86 | Team Pace | 93.86 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Arron Afflalo | Nicolas Batum | LaMarcus Aldridge | Robin Lopez | Proj Starter | Nick Calathes | Courtney Lee | Tony Allen | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 7 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 2 | Opp. Season | 28 | 21 | 12 | 1 | 5 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 4 | Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 10 | |
Portland
The Blazers made a strong fourth-quarter push in Game 4 to avoid the sweep and force a Game 5 back in Memphis. While it was nice to see Portland pick up a win, they have had trouble with the Grizzlies all season. The Blazers are listed as 5.5-point underdogs tonight with their team total set at only 92 points. The Grizzlies present a very difficult matchup for fantasy production, but the big three from the Blazers are all in play tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.2 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
Damian Lillard (FD: $7700, DK: $8000 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 26.6)
After a bad start to the series, Lillard bounced back nicely in Games 3 and 4 with 37 and 45 fantasy points. He’s a big-time player that typically plays his best under the spotlight. He should push for 40+ minutes of playing time tonight against the Grizzlies, who will be without Mike Conley. Lillard should be able to get wherever he wants on the floor, as he has a quickness advantage over Nick Calathes, Beno Udrih, and Tony Allen.
Nicolas Batum (FD: $6700, DK: $7000 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 14.6)
Dollar for dollar, I have DeMarre Carroll ahead of Batum as the best play at small forward tonight, but Batum isn’t far behind. He has scored 32 and 40 fantasy points in his last two games and he has played 42 minutes in each of his last three. Batum may not have many games where he breaks out offensively, but he fills up all areas of the stat sheet and the small forward position is extremely limited tonight.
Secondary Plays
LaMarcus Aldridge (FD: $9500, DK: $9600 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 29.9)
Memphis
The Grizzlies will be without Mike Conley again tonight, as they look to close out the series in Game 5. Nick Calathes will likely draw another start at point guard, but the point guard minutes will likely be split evenly between he and Beno Udrih. The Grizzlies are listed as 5.5-point favorites tonight with their team total set at 98 points, which is second only to the Hawks.
Opponent Breakdown (Portland)
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.4 (Rank: 11)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10
Elite Plays
Marc Gasol (FD: $8400, DK: $8600 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.7)
Gasol is Mr. Consistent and Mr. Cash Game here in the postseason. While Brook Lopez and Al Horford are solid option in their own right, Gasol is the safest play at center tonight. He has scored at least 38 fantasy points in every game so far in this series and he should push for 40 minutes of action again tonight. He has had no problems reaching value in this series and he actually sees a small boost with Mike Conley out.
Beno Udrih (FD: $3800, DK: $3800) & Nick Calathes (FD: $3800, DK: $3100)
If you are looking for value tonight, both of the Grizzlies’ point guards are in play. They should both see around 24 minutes of action tonight and both are priced under $4,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. You can take both for a combined price of $7,600 on FanDuel and $6,900 on DraftKings. That’s not a bad price point when you consider the fact that they should combine for 48 minutes. I don’t have a strong preference between the two, which is why taking both makes a lot of sense tonight.
Secondary Plays
Zach Randolph (FD: $6700, DK: $6500 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 24.2)
Tony Allen (FD: $4800, DK: $4300 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 16.6)
Courtney Lee (FD: $4200, DK: $4500 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 15.2)