NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, April 2nd - Page 2
All stat chart buttons below open in an in-screen popup window and include stat tables for all games on the given page of the Grind Down Article
Boston at Washington
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Boston Proj. Starters – Rondo-Bayless-Green-Humphries-Bass
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Ariza-Booker-Gortat
Boston
- Injury Notes: Avery Bradley is doubtful to play.
The Celtics didn’t have Rajon Rondo on Monday and Jerryd Bayless stepped in and did a really nice job against the Bulls at the Point. On Wednesday, they will likely be missing Avery Bradley and that means Bayless should slide over to the 2. I like that he’ll be seeing added minutes, but without the ball in his hands as often his upside is a bit limited. Beyond Bayless, the best matchups for Boston are probably in the paint. The downside with that is the rotation of Celtics bigs, with Sullinger, Bass, Humphries and Olynyk all vying for minutes. The O/U in this game is pretty low with a 7.5 point edge given to WAS, so I wouldn’t try to target too many guys in this game.
- Jared Sullinger – Sully will probably see more minutes against a quicker team like Washington than the starter, Kris Humphries, and he is coming off a real dud on Monday that dropped his price a bit on most sites. Before that, he had 3 solid efforts and he makes for a nice GPP play today but is too risky to trust in cash games.
- Jerryd Bayless – Bayless is a price-based play, and at $4.3K on FD, $4.1K on DK and just over $8K on DS he’s cheap enough to warrant consideration filling-in for the injured Bradley.
Washington
- Injury Notes: No significant injury news at this time.
The Wizards backcourt gets a big boost on Wednesday with the Bradley news, as he’s one of the best on ball defenders and likely would have shadowed John Wall all night. The injury will move Rondo to Wall most likely and Bayless onto Beal, which is great news for both players. As it stands, the Celtics are middle of the pack against the PG, SG and SF positions over the last 15 days so the matchup was pretty good to begin with. With Bradley down, that matchup improves drastically.
- John Wall – Wall has been a little up and down lately, but the upside is still clearly there on any given night. I love the matchup but before going all-in I’d definitely consider a few other slightly cheaper PGs tonight before him in terms of value. I’d classify him as a GPP option.
- Bradley Beal – Beal has 30 FP in back to back games and the most intriguing stat are the 5 assists he’s now posted in 3 of his last 4 contests. When he’s stuffing the stat sheet, he’s a tremendous fantasy option albeit with somewhat limited upside of late. I think he makes for a pretty safe, price-dependent option.
- Drew Gooden – Gooden is back baby! Look for Drew to bang down low a lot tonight with the Celtics rotating in and out their own bigs and Gooden has now posted 29 and 31 FP in his last two games after a quick downswing. He’s min priced on FanDuel and just $4.1K on DK, making him one of my favorite value options tonight who may be flying under the radar a bit.
Chicago at Atlanta
- Vegas Line – Chicago -2, 186 Over/Under
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Antic
Chicago
- Injury Notes: No significant injury news at this time
The Bulls head to Atlanta to take on a Hawks team that has a lot of blue and green on the matchup charts today. Atlanta’s defense is pretty soft overall, most significantly rating out 2nd worst against PGs over the last 15 days and in the bottom 10 against Centers on both the season and last 15 days splits. The O/U is really low here, but that tends to be the case with all Bulls games and the 2 point spread definitely intrigues me when considering some of the Chicago options tonight.
- Joakim Noah – Noah has averaged 50 FPPG in three games against Atlanta this season and you can’t convince me that Pero Antic, Paul Millsap and Elton Brand stand a reasonable chance against Noah. He’s topped 40 fantasy points in 9 of his last 10 games and I see no reason not to bank on him for another solid effort tonight.
- D.J. Augustin – I mentioned it above, but the Hawks have been terrible against PGs on the year and over the last 15 days, leaving Augustin in a tremendous spot off the bench. His price has gone up quite a bit on most sites, but at $5.5K on DK and just over $10K on DS, you can easily justify this play. He’s been a fantasy point per minute machine and is averaging 30ish minutes per game over the last 10.
Atlanta
- Injury Notes: No significant injury news at this time
Atlanta will try and steal a win that they desperately need against Chicago at home on Wednesday. As is always the case against Chicago, it’s tough to get overly excited about anyone on the opposing offense. Atlanta has been a bit of a fantasy nightmare lately to begin with, with Millsap, Teague, Carroll and Antic producing consistent landmines. They could definitely win this game, but I don’t think there are any players worth paying for that will post huge stat lines tonight.
Milwaukee at Miami
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Sessions-Middleton-Adrien-Pachulia
- Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Douglas-James-Battier-Bosh
Milwaukee
- Injury Notes: O.J. Mayo is doubtful to play tonight.
The Bucks are a baffling bunch with Larry Drew leading the lineup decision-making process, and that definitely makes almost any Milwaukee play a GPP only option. With that said, these two teams did meet on Saturday so we can draw a small amount of knowledge from that contest between the 2nd seed and the worst team in the Eastern Conference. The Heat were without a lot of guys in that one, and could be missing some again tonight but it still turned into a blowout quick. John Henson was probably the most productive Buck, posting 33 fantasy points in a lot of garbage time. This game is in Miami, so a blowout is probably a safe bet again today.
- John Henson – I just like Henson’s upside most nights and the fact that Miami struggles to defend the paint makes me like Henson even more. As noted above, the Bucks are all GPP-only but he’s my favorite target tonight from Milwaukee. Others to consider would be Ramon Sessions, Jeff Adrien and Zaza Pachulia.
Miami
- Injury Notes: Dwyane Wade and Greg Oden are doubtful. Ray Allen has been upgraded to probable.
All the scratches for Miami are creating an interesting dynamic in South Beach. Toney Douglas and Udonis Haslem have been thrust into bigger roles for the Heat and Douglas had 31 fantasy points vs. MIL on Saturday. For min-price, I would definitely consider him as well as Haslem who has a 25 FP game in his last 3 game log. The return of Ray Allen should cut slightly into both of their minutes though, although how much the Heat use the elder veteran in a game that could turn ugly fast is definitely up for discussion.
- Toney Douglas – He’s the only Heat player I’ll be targeting and it’ll be in GPPs only. He’s min priced on DraftKings, so if I make a few teams over there you can all but guarantee I try and find a way to slide him onto one roster. The blowout risk scares me off of the big names like James or Bosh.
Memphis at Minnesota
- Vegas Line – Memphis -4.5, 199 Over/Under
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Prince-Randolph-Gasol
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Dieng
Memphis
- Injury Notes: No significant injury news at this time.
Another game tonight where vastly contrasting styles of play will clash, as the Wolves and Grizzlies do battle in Minnesota. Memphis wants to play slow, grind-it-out basketball built around solid defense and the Wolves, well they don’t really know what defense is. The biggest holes in Minnesota’s defense are in the backcourt, with Rubio, Martin and Brewer often giving up huge games to opposing guards/small forwards. They rank in the bottom 10 in the league against the PG, SG and SF position for both the season and last 15 days splits.
- Mike Conley – Conley is averaging 38 FPPG in 3 games against Minnesota this season and as mentioned above, the Twolves aren’t world beaters at defending the PG position. I like him to have a nice game tonight, although his $7.4K tag on DK is slightly inflated so I might avoid him there.
Minnesota
- Injury Notes: Nikola Pekovic is doubtful to play on Wednesday night.
In the least shocking news of the season, Pekovic is hurt again. I can’t imagine why a team that has essentially no chance of making the playoffs would repeatedly force Pek into the lineup but what the hell do I know? I’m just the guy who has to write about how he plays 15 minutes and gets reinjured. Adelman has definitely screwed the pooch in that situation, but the good news for DFSers is that it’s Gorgeous Dong time once again. Gorgui will move back into the starting lineup assuming Pek sits and that’s terrific news. It’s just too bad Pek couldn’t sweat it out for 2-3 more games so Dieng’s price could have dropped back to bargain bin levels.
- Gorgui Dieng – Targeting Dieng against a stout MEM defense is definitely risky, especially with his $6K range price point on both FD and DK. But Dieng had 36 fantasy points against Memphis a few games back as a starter and posted a whopping 31 fantasy points in just 19 minutes last time out vs. LAC.
Golden State at San Antonio
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Iguodala-Green-O’Neal
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Belinelli-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
Golden State
- Injury Notes: Andrew Bogut will remain out tonight. David Lee is doubtful to play.
The Warriors frontcourt should be sufficiently ravaged again with Lee and Bogut both likely to stay on the sidelines against the Spurs. That should leave a heavy dose of Jermaine O’Neal once again, who has played 30 minutes with around 30 FP in each of his last two games. It also helps the value of Draymond Green who played an incredible 42 minutes last night with 9 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists. Matchup-wise, there’s a 9.5 point spread favoring SA tonight which definitely worries me from the big name players in this game.
- Jermaine O’Neal – I mentioned it above, but O’Neal has been awesome in the starting role all season long for Golden State. Whenever he’s needed to fill in, he has almost always provided good fantasy production. At $4.3K on FD, $6.7K on DD and $3.4K on DK, he’s a near extreme value tonight.
- Draymond Green – Green has been another reliable value play all year when given enough minutes, and the 42 on Tuesday night were a great sign for those looking to target him tonight. San Antonio is 18th against PFs over the last 15 days and have definitely had some struggles defending the paint at various times this season.
San Antonio
- Injury Notes: No significant injury news at this time
It almost feels weird to say that there’s no significant injury news for San Antonio beyond Aron Baynes being questionable and Matt Bonner being out. It’s a little too quiet in SA right now, and with the Spurs playing on Thursday we could be in for a Pop. I never really know what to think about San Antonio in the first place, but I do know that they’re 10 point favorites tonight against a beaten up Warriors team then have to head to OKC tomorrow to fight for the #1 seed in the Western Conference. That seems like the perfect storm for at least a couple of starters to be healthy scratches. The worst part is, Pop isn’t even announcing his scratches anymore. The other day he scratched Splitter and Green as DNPs after tip off.