NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, April 8th - Page Two
Indiana at New York – 7:30: PM
- Vegas Line – Indiana -12.5, 191.5 Over/Under
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Miles-Hill-West-Hibbert
- New York Proj. Starters – Larkin-Galloway-Thomas-Bargnani-Amundson
| Indiana | New York | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 191 |  | Vegas Total | 191 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -12.5 | Vegas Sprd | 12.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.0 | Team Proj. | 89.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.67 | Team Pace | 93.48 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | George Hill | C.J. Miles | Solomon Hill | David West | Roy Hibbert | Proj Starter | Shane Larkin | Langston Galloway | Lance Thomas | Andrea Bargnani | Louis Amundson | |
| Opp. Season | 21 | 23 | 2 | 7 | 25 | Opp. Season | 8 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 8 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 18 | Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 20 | 20 | 10 | 23 | |
Indiana
The Pacers are looking for their third win in a row tonight, as they head to New York to take on the Knicks. They are currently a game behind the Celtics for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The Pacers should pick up an easy win tonight, as they are 12.5-point favorites against a hapless Knicks’ team. This game lacks fantasy appeal though, as it has a low total and there is the potential for it to turn into a blowout.
Opponent Breakdown (New York)
Record: 15-62
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.3 (Rank: 20)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
George Hill (FD: $7500, DK: $7400) and David West (FD: $5500, DK: $5700) are both secondary options for cash games tonight against the Knicks. Both players lack the upside appeal needed in tournaments.
New York
The Knicks have lost nine of their last ten games. They are counting down the days until the end of the season and who can blame them after the season that they’ve had? The Knicks are huge underdogs tonight against the Pacers. In addition to the potential blowout, this is a tough matchup for fantasy production. The Pacers are ranked fifth in points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Indiana)
Record: 34-43
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.1 (Rank: 5)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 7
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Langston Galloway (FD: $6000, DK: $5500) and Shane Larkin (FD: $4900, DK: $4600) should both log heavy minutes tonight against the Pacers. Neither player stands out as a must-start at point guard though. It won’t hurt to avoid the Knicks altogether tonight.
Cleveland at Milwaukee – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -7.5, 197 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Mozgov
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Ilyasova-Pachulia
| Cleveland | Milwaukee | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 197 |  | Vegas Total | 197 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.3 | Team Proj. | 94.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.77 | Team Pace | 96.26 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Timofey Mozgov | Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Ersan Ilyasova | Zaza Pachulia | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 15 | 25 | 14 | 16 | Opp. Season | 12 | 22 | 19 | 11 | 10 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 23 | 21 | 16 | 4 | Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 16 | 24 | 3 | 16 | |
Cleveland
The Cavaliers are not planning to rest any of their starters tonight against the Bucks, but that doesn’t mean that the starters will all see their usual allotment of minutes. With nothing to play for at this point of the season, the Cavaliers are risky fantasy options, especially in cash games. On a night with a full slate, it’s best to avoid the Cavaliers tonight against a defensive-minded Bucks’ team.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 38-39
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.6 (Rank: 9)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Milwaukee
The Bucks have really stumbled down the stretch of the regular season, but it looks like they are going to hang on to the sixth-seed in the Eastern Conference. They need to stay in that spot in order to avoid the Cavaliers in the first round of the playoffs. The Bucks have a deep and inconsistent rotation, which really makes predicting individual fantasy production difficult. I will be avoiding the Bucks tonight in lieu of more reliable fantasy options.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Record: 50-27
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.3 (Rank: 12)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
New Orleans at Memphis – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Memphis -5, 183.5 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Evans-Gordon-Pondexter-Davis-Asik
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Green-Randolph-Gasol
| New Orleans | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 183 |  | Vegas Total | 183 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 89.3 | Team Proj. | 94.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 93.68 | Team Pace | 94.34 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tyreke Evans | Eric Gordon | Quincy Pondexter | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Jeff Green | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 7 | 8 | 13 | 4 | 2 | Opp. Season | 14 | 16 | 7 | 5 | 18 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 4 | 16 | 6 | 2 | Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 29 | |
New Orleans
The Pelicans picked up a huge win over the Warriors last night. They now hold a half-game lead over the Thunder for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They need to win out to guarantee a spot in the playoffs. They will have their hands full tonight, as the face the Grizzlies in Memphis. This should be a very competitive game, but it lacks fantasy appeal, as both teams are above average defensively.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Record: 52-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.4 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Anthony Davis (FD: $12000, DK: $11200) and Tyreke Evans (FD: $8000, DK: $7900) are both viable secondary options tonight. I’ll likely be avoiding both in cash though, as the Grizzlies are ranked second in points allowed per game this season.
Memphis
Zach Randolph and Jeff Green are both questionable to play tonight against the Pelicans. If Randolph is out, give a boost to Marc Gasol and Kosta Koufos. If Allen is out, give a boost to Courtney Lee. The Grizzlies draw a mediocre matchup against the Pelicans, who are ranked 13th in points allowed per game and fifth in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 41-35
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.5 (Rank: 13)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Marc Gasol (FD: $7600, DK: $7000) and Mike Conley (FD: $6000, DK: $6100) are both viable secondary options tonight against the Pelicans, but neither player stands out as a must-start.
Houston at San Antonio – 8:30 PM
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -6.5, 207 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Terry-Harden-Ariza-Jones-Howard
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Baynes
| Houston | San Antonio | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207 |  | Vegas Total | 207 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.3 | Team Proj. | 106.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.21 | Team Pace | 95.86 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jason Terry | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Terrence Jones | Dwight Howard | Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Aron Baynes | |
| Opp. Season | 10 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 13 | Opp. Season | 3 | 19 | 18 | 27 | 22 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 15 | Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 28 | 27 | |
Houston
The Rockets draw one of the toughest matchups on the board. They have to face a red-hot Spurs team on their home floor. The Rockets are 6.5-point underdogs tonight with their team total set at only 100 points. That’s markedly lower than their average on the season. The Spurs are ranked third in points allowed per game this season and they know how to shut down their opponent’s best player.
Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Record: 51-26
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.9 (Rank: 3)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
San Antonio
The Spurs are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, but I expect their starters to see their usual allotment of minutes. Not only are they fighting for playoff positioning, but the starters weren’t required to play a ton of minutes last night, as the Spurs blew the Thunder out in Oklahoma City. The Spurs draw a mediocre matchup against the uptempo Rockets, who are ranked 17th in points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 53-24
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.4 (Rank: 17)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14
Elite Plays
Kawhi Leonard (FD: $8100, DK: $8000 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 23)
Secondary Plays
The Spurs are trying to secure home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, so I expect Tim Duncan (FD: $6800, DK: $6400) and Tony Parker (FD: $5800, DK: $5400) to see their usual allotment of minutes tonight. That said, you can never fully trust a veteran on the Spurs. They are better suited as tournament plays tonight against the Rockets.
L.A. Lakers at Denver – 9:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Denver -11.5, 207 Over/Under
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Clarkson-Lin-Johnson-Kelly-Black
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Gallinari-Faried
| L.A. Lakers | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207 |  | Vegas Total | 207 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.5 | Vegas Sprd | -11.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.8 | Team Proj. | 109.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.20 | Team Pace | 98.42 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jordan Clarkson | Jeremy Lin | Wesley Johnson | Ryan Kelly | Tarik Black | Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Randy Foye | Wilson Chandler | Danilo Gallinari | Kenneth Faried | |
| Opp. Season | 9 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 27 | Opp. Season | 30 | 26 | 23 | 13 | 24 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 26 | 12 | 26 | 28 | Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 24 | 28 | 23 | 6 | |
L.A. Lakers
The Lakers played surprisingly well last night against the Clippers, but in the end they fell short and lost their fourth game in a row. They now have to head to Denver to take on the Nuggets in the tail end of a back-to-back. The Lakers are 11.5-point underdogs tonight, but this is a very favorable matchup for fantasy production. The Nuggets are ranked 27th in points allowed per game and 20th in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 28-49
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.1 (Rank: 27)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20
Elite Plays
Ryan Kelly (FD: $4200, DK: $4000 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 13.9)
I’m going to have a heavy exposure to Kelly tonight. Not only are his minutes up, but he draws one of the best matchups on the board, as the Nuggets are ranked dead last against power forwards this season. In his last six games, Kelly has averaged 23 fantasy points in 37 minutes per contest. I see that type of production as his floor tonight, with a ceiling that is much higher.
Secondary Plays
Jordan Clarkson (FD: $7700, DK: $6700) and Wesley Johnson (FD: $4500, DK: $5000) are both in play tonight against the Nuggets in what should be a fast-paced, high-scoring game. Clarkson is a better play on DraftKings ($6,700), while Johnson is a better play on FanDuel ($4,500).
Denver
The Nuggets draw arguably the best matchup on the board. The Lakers are ranked 28th in points allowed per game this season. The Nuggets are 11.5-point favorites with their team total set at 109 points. The only concern here is that the Nuggets have had a deep and inconsistent rotation recently. All five starters have seen a huge fluctuation in minutes over the last few weeks.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Lakers)
Record: 20-56
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.8 (Rank: 28)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 29
Rebounding Differential Rank: 17
Elite Plays
Wilson Chandler (FD: $5400, DK: $5800 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 19.9)
Chandler’s minutes have been up and down recently, but he draws a fantastic matchup against the Lakers, who are ranked 23rd against small forwards this season. Chandler’s price has come down on both FanDuel and DraftKings, providing us with a terrific opportunity to buy low on the Nuggets’ small forward. He should be able to reach and exceed value with ease tonight tonight against the Lakers.
Randy Foye (FD: $4300, DK: $4500 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 19.4)
Like the rest of the starters, Foye’s minutes have been difficult to predict recently, but he has played well in games where he has played 30+ minutes. He has 30-fantasy point type of upside against a Lakers’ defense that is ranked 25th against shooting guards this season. There will be very little defense played tonight and I love the upside that Foye offers at his price point.
Secondary Plays
Ty Lawson (FD: $6800, DK: $6600), Danilo Gallinari (FD: $6400, DK: $6000), and Kenneth Faried (FD: $6200, DK: $6900) are all viable secondary options in this favorable matchup against the Lakers.