NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, February 12th - Page 3

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-02-12 20:56:55

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Philadelphia at Utah

Vegas Line – Utah -7,5, 203 Over/Under
Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Anderson-Turner-Young-Hawes
Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Hayward-Jefferson-Williams-Favors

Philadelphia

We are down to the final few games of the night. The late games look like they could be great games to target tonight. As we all know, the Sixers are the fastest-pace team in the league and provide fantasy gold for whoever their opponent happens to be that night. The Jazz on the other hand are one of the slowest paced teams in the league as they only average 93 possessions per game.

Typically in these cases, the pace of play ends up being somewhere in between the two teams average pace of play. If that happens tonight, that means that the Jazz will see a few extra possessions than their average and the Sixers will see a few less possessions than their average. Looking at the teams as a whole, give a fantasy boost to the Jazz and a fantasy decline to the Sixers.

Michael Carter-Williams should be avoided tonight, he has really been struggling over his last two weeks and is dealing with the same rookie wall that his opponent Trey Burke has hit. Thaddeus Young and Spencer Hawes both make interesting plays, but neither stand out as must haves on a night with so many other options.

Utah

Whoever made the NBA schedule really wanted the Jazz to feel good about themselves heading into the All-Star break. They faced the Lakers last night and now get to face the Sixers tonight. These are the two worst defenses in the NBA. The Sixers play at the league’s fastest pace (averaging 102 possessions per game) and are ranked 29th or 30th in terms of fantasy points allowed to all five positions on the floor.

All five starters from the Jazz are in play here, however Richard Jefferson and Marvin Williams are my two least favorite starters. Trey Burke has been playing at a sub-par level, but he played well last night and his price is so cheap across the industry (especially on DS). Derrick Favors also looks like a great play tonight, he is only $6,400 on FD and $6,000 on DK.

Gordon Hayward – Hayward has been a boom or bust player this season, but he’s played well in good matchups and he’s at least been somewhat predictable. He put up over 30 FP’s last night against the Lakers and I fully expect him to do the same tonight against the Sixers. His upside in this matchup is enormous.

Miami at Golden State

Vegas Line – Golden State -1, 204 Over/Under
Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Battier-Bosh
Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Iguodala-Lee-Speights

Miami

Two of the best scorers in the league face off in what should be a very exciting game to watch. This game is expected to stay very close and it should be fairly high scoring as well. Dwyane Wade has not been playing back to back games for the majority of the season, but since he didn’t play last night, he has a good chance of suiting up tonight. However, with this being a later game, we probably won’t know his status before the first game tips off which puts him in play only on sites that offer the late swap.

There aren’t any options that really stand out to me tonight on the Heat. LeBron James had a sub-par game by his standards in their first meeting with the Warriors. He put up 26 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists. While those aren’t terrible numbers, they aren’t enough to cover value at that high price tag.

Golden State

The Warriors have had a few down games at home lately and their owner is making a much bigger deal out of it than he needs to. That said, I expect Mark Jackson to get his troops fired up for this one. The Heat have been very solid defensively this season. They are ranked 4th or better at defending PG’s, SG’s, and SF’s. I really like David Lee in this one though, Shane Battier is probably the most under-sized starting PF in the league and with Andrew Bogut ruled out, Lee should play major minutes in this one.

Stephen Curry – In addition to Lee, I also think Curry is in play. While I don’t like him quite as much as Love, Melo, or Davis, he certainly has an upside that rivals that of anyone. In his first meeting against the Heat, Curry put up 36 points and 12 assists and I wouldn’t put it past him to do it again tonight.

Portland at L.A.Clippers

Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -9, 218 Over/Under
Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
L.A.Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Crawford-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan

Portland

The final game of the night just so happens to have the highest total of the night. Both teams are expected to score well into the hundreds and this will likely be one of the top games to target as long as it doesn’t turn into a blowout. The Clippers have allowed the fewest FP’s of any team this season to opposing PG’s. I think that takes Damian Lillard out of play but the rest of the Blazers starter’s are in play.

LaMarcus Aldridge – Aldridge is dealing with a groin injury, but he is expected to play tonight and I love his matchup against the Clippers who have been surprising inefficient at defending the paint this season. With Griffin and Jordan down low, you would think the Clippers would be better than their DvP ranks of 23 and 27 against opposing PF’s and Centers.

L.A.Clippers

The Clippers now have Chris Paul back into the lineup, but they will likely continue to ease him back into action, especially considering the fact that he will have another week to recover with the All-Star break. I expect him to see somewhere between 25-30 minutes tonight which just isn’t enough to pay the high price tag for him, even considering the great matchup against Lillard. DeAndre Jordan has a solid matchup against Lopez, I think Jordan should be considered a top 3 Center tonight.

Blake Griffin – The Blazers have really been solid defensively against PF’s this season, but Griffin has been matchup proof all season long and Aldridge’s injury could slow him down a bit on the defensive end. The Clippers are projected to score 112 points tonight and Griffin will get his share.