NBA Grind Down Wednesday, January 7th - Page Two
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Boston at Brooklyn
- Vegas Line – Brooklyn -4, 199 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Turner-Bradley-Green-Sullinger-Zeller
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Jack-Karasev-Johnson-Garnett-Plumlee
| Boston | Brooklyn | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199 |  | Vegas Total | 199 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.50 | Team Proj. | 101.50 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.09 | Team Pace | 94.43 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Evan Turner | Avery Bradley | Jeff Green | Jared Sullinger | Tyler Zeller | Proj Starter | Jarrett Jack | Sergey Karasev | Joe Johnson | Kevin Garnett | Mason Plumlee | |
| Opp. Season | 25 | 14 | 22 | 20 | 10 | Opp. Season | 23 | 7 | 10 | 30 | 27 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 17 | 18 | 10 | 18 | Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 10 | 12 | 28 | 15 | |
Boston
The Celtics head to Brooklyn to take on the Nets tonight. Vegas has the Celtics listed as 4-point underdogs with the total for the game set at 199 points. The Nets have been very average defensively, but have struggled on the glass (22nd in rebounding differential). While the matchup is a decent one, the Celtics are a very tough team to predict on a nightly basis. Coach Brad Stevens has a very deep rotation that seems to change every single night.
Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Record: 16-18
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.2
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Jared Sullinger (FD: $6700, DK: $6600 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 21.8)
In daily fantasy basketball, we often see certain trends. One trend is targeting players after they have had a hot stretch of games. This could be a great time to target Sullinger before the masses realize how well he has been playing. Sullinger has scored at least 40 fantasy points in three of his last four games. There are safer options at power forward in his price range (Monroe, Faried, Morris), but Sullinger could be a difference-maker in tournaments tonight.
Brooklyn
The Nets are going to be without Deron Williams again tonight, meaning Jarrett Jack will see all of the minutes that he can handle at point guard. They will have Kevin Garnett back in the lineup, though. It will be interesting to see if they bring Brook Lopez off the bench or whether he has earned his starting gig back. In terms of their matchup tonight, it is a favorable one. The Celtics are one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA and have given up an average of 104.3 points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 11-21
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.3
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 13
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18
Elite Plays
Jarrett Jack (FD: $6000, DK: $6500 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 20.6)
With Deron Williams out, Jack is going to play all of the minutes that he can handle. He is coming off of a terrific 37 fantasy points against the Mavericks. Tonight, he squares off against the Celtics, who have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to point guards this season (and yes, they have struggled against point guards since Rondo’s departure). There are a ton of point guard options tonight, but few with better value than Jack.
Secondary Plays
None
Utah at Chicago
- Vegas Line – Chicago -11, 196 Over/Under
- Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Ingles-Hayward-Favors-Gobert
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Hinrich-Butler-Gasol-Noah
| Utah | Chicago | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196 |  | Vegas Total | 196 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.00 | Vegas Sprd | -11.00 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.5 | Team Proj. | 103.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.46 | Team Pace | 96.29 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Trey Burke | Joe Ingles | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Rudy Gobert | Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Kirk Hinrich | Jimmy Butler | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | |
| Opp. Season | 24 | 2 | 27 | 15 | 25 | Opp. Season | 6 | 11 | 13 | 26 | 4 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 16 | 27 | 14 | 24 | Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 22 | 24 | 13 | 4 | |
Utah
The Jazz will be without Enes Kanter again tonight, which means Rudy Gobert will draw another start at center. The Jazz are listed as 11-point underdogs against a red-hot Bulls team. This game does have the potential to turn into a blowout, but there are a couple of interesting plays on the Jazz tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Record: 25-10
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.8
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
Rudy Gobert (FD: $5200, DK: $5900 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 13.5)
Rudy Gobert will draw another start at center tonight. His ownership level was through the roof the other night, but hopefully his poor fantasy outing will scare some people off of him tonight. Gobert has been very productive when given big minutes this season and is in a good spot to bounce back tonight. The Bulls have allowed the sixth most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.
Trey Burke (FD: $5900, DK: $5000 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 21.4)
Burke missed the last game with an illness but is expected to be back in the lineup tonight. He has really played well recently, averaging 18 points, 3 rebounds, and 5 assists per game over his last five. The most promising statistic is that he has averaged 37 minutes per game during that stretch. The Jazz are large underdogs tonight, but Burke still has a favorable matchup. The Bulls have allowed the seventh most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.
Secondary Plays
None
Chicago
Here we go again. Derrick Rose did not practice yesterday and is being listed as a game-time decision against the Jazz. If he is forced to sit out, Kirk Hinrich, Aaron Brooks, and Jimmy Butler would all see a fantasy boost. This is a fantasy-friendly matchup for the Bulls. While the Jazz do play at a very slow pace, they are ranked 27th in defensive efficiency this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Utah)
Record: 12-23
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 4
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Jimmy Butler (FD: $9500, DK: $8500 / MPG: 40 / Usage Rate: 21.9)
Jimmy minutes is an excellent play on DraftKings tonight, although he may be a little to expensive to use on FanDuel. If you’ve read the Grind Down before, you know that Butler is one of my favorite players in the NBA. He is a beast on both ends of the floor and is averaging 40 minutes per game. Give him a small fantasy boost tonight if Derrick Rose is forced to sit out.
Pau Gasol (FD: $9200, DK: $9400 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 24.1)
Gasol will have a low percentage of ownership again tonight, but once again, he makes a good cash game play. He’s been extremely consistent this season, averaging 18 points, 12 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 blocks per game. He has scored at least 50 fantasy points in three straight games and is worth a look tonight against the Jazz.
Detroit at Dallas
- Vegas Line – Dallas -9, 211 Over/Under
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Caldwell-Pope-Singler-Monroe-Drummond
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Rondo-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
| Detroit | Dallas | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 211 |  | Vegas Total | 211 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.0 | Vegas Sprd | -9.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101 | Team Proj. | 110 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.38 | Team Pace | 96.94 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Brandon Jennings | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Kyle Singler | Greg Monroe | Andre Drummond | Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | |
| Opp. Season | 29 | 9 | 18 | 7 | 11 | Opp. Season | 10 | 16 | 6 | 27 | 16 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 11 | 17 | 7 | 30 | Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 2 | 22 | |
Detroit
Brandon Jennings hit a game-winning shot to beat the Spurs in San Antonio last night. The Pistons have now won six games in a row and are only three and a half games outside of the eighth seed in the East. While I’d love for them to keep their winning streak alive tonight, they are in a tough spot. They are playing the second half of back-to-back road games against a very talented Mavericks team. Vegas has the Pistons listed as 9-point underdogs in this one.
Opponent Breakdown (Dallas)
Record: 26-10
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.9
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22
Elite Plays
Greg Monroe (FD: $6300, DK: $7000 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 24)
Monroe still isn’t seeing starter’s minutes, but he has been extremely productive ever since the Pistons waived Josh Smith. Over his last eight games, Monroe has averaged 30 fantasy points per game in an average of only 26 minutes of action. That means that he is averaging 1.16 fantasy points per minute during that stretch. Hopefully, Stan Van Gundy and the Pistons will decide to give him a little more run moving forward. Monroe has great upside for a player at his price point and is my top power forward play on FanDuel ($6,300) tonight.
Secondary Plays
Andre Drummond (FD: $9200, DK: $9600 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 21.3)
Drummond has switched gears since the Josh Smith departure. He has been terrific for the Pistons and is a big reason why they have been able to win five in a row. During the winning streak, he has averaged 15 points, 18 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game. Tyson Chandler is a tough matchup, but the Mavericks are not a great rebounding team (22nd in rebounding differential). Drummond should be in line for another monster double-double tonight.
Dallas
The Mavericks have a nice little winning streak of their own. They have won six in a row and are currently only three games behind the Warriors for the top seed in the West. Vegas is expecting the Mavericks to roll over the Pistons, as they are listed as 9-point favorites. This is a decent matchup, but the Pistons have been playing much better defense recently. There really aren’t any options that stand out as elite plays on the Mavericks tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Detroit)
Record: 11-23
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Chandler Parsons (FD: $6400, DK: $6500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 20.5)
One of the more underrated tournament strategies is to target good players that are in a slump. Not only is their price going to be depressed, but their ownership level will also be down. Parsons fits the bill tonight against the Pistons. He has shown that he has 40 fantasy point type of upside, yet his recent slump has brought his price down to a very playable level on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Orlando at Denver
- Vegas Line – Denver -8, 200.5 Over/Under
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Oladipo-Harris-O’Quinn-Vucevic
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Afflalo-Chandler-Faried-Nurkic
| Orlando | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 200.5 |  | Vegas Total | 200.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.00 | Vegas Sprd | -8.00 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.25 | Team Proj. | 104.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.59 | Team Pace | 98.59 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Victor Oladipo | Tobias Harris | Kyle O’Quinn | Nikola Vucevic | Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Arron Afflalo | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Jusuf Nurkic | |
| Opp. Season | 7 | 23 | 5 | 28 | 19 | Opp. Season | 28 | 8 | 19 | 13 | 30 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 30 | 1 | 27 | 10 | Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 13 | 4 | 20 | 23 | |
Orlando
The Magic have lost seven of their last ten games and are losing ground in the Eastern Conference playoff race. It’s a bit strange, but they have actually played much better on the road (9-12) than they have at home (4-12). Tonight they head to Denver to take on the Nuggets. Vegas has the Magic listed as 8-point underdogs in this one. The good news is that the Nuggets have given up an average of 103.9 points per game to their opponents this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 15-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6
Elite Plays
Victor Oladipo (FD: $6500, DK: $5800 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.7)
After a slow start to the season, Oladipo is finally playing up to his potential. Over his last eight games, he has averaged 17 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals per game. His price on DraftKings is awfully enticing and his price on FanDuel is still at a playable level. He draws a favorable matchup against the Nuggets, who have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Nikola Vucevic (FD: $8800, DK: $8400 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.7)
Vucevic is flying under the radar tonight, despite drawing a terrific matchup against the Nuggets. The Nuggets have not defended the paint well this season and have allowed the 12th most fantasy points to opposing centers. Vucevic is averaging 18 points and 11 rebounds per game this season and could potentially top those numbers tonight.
Denver
The Nuggets are 8-point favorites tonight against the Magic. While this will be a pace-down game for the Nuggets, that doesn’t mean that it isn’t a fantasy-friendly matchup. The Magic are ranked 20th in defensive efficiency and 22nd in rebounding differential. The Nuggets’ team total is set at 104 points, which is slightly higher than their season average.
UPDATE: Timofey Mozgov has been traded to the Cavaliers. Kenneth Faried and Jusuf Nurkic should both see a major fantasy boost tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Orlando)
Record: 13-24
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.3
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22
Elite Plays
Ty Lawson (FD: $9100, DK: $9200 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 21.1)
Lawson is often the odd man out when it comes to the elite point guards in the NBA. He’s typically not even found in the top ten of most experts’ rankings of point guards. He’s doing his best to change their minds this season, averaging 16 points, 3 rebounds, and 10 assists per game. He has terrific upside and draws a favorable matchup against the Magic, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing point guards.
Kenneth Faried (FD: $6700, DK: $7400 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 20.4)
Faried’s minutes are still an issue, but he has played great over his last over his last seven games. During that stretch, he has averaged 16 points, 14 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. His price is still affordable on FanDuel ($6,700) and he draws a fantasy-friendly matchup against Magic, who are ranked 22nd in rebounding differential this season. Faried is somewhat of a risky play in cash games but tops my list of suggested tournament plays for the evening.
Jusuf Nurkic (FD: $5000, DK: $4900 / MPG: 13 / Usage Rate: 23.6)
How about the numbers that Nurkic has been putting up lately? In an average of only 23 minutes over his last four games, Nurkic is averaging 13 points, 8 rebounds, 4 blocks, and 2 steals per game. Add in the fact that the Magic have allowed more fantasy points to centers than any other team in the NBA and we have ourselves a great value play. Update: Give Nurkic a boost tonight with Mozgov traded to Cleveland.
Secondary Plays
None
Phoenix at Minnesota
- Vegas Line – Phoenix -8.5, 214.5 Over/Under
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Bledsoe-Dragic-Tucker-Morris-Len
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Williams-Wiggins-Muhammad-Young-Dieng
| Phoenix | Minnesota | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.5 |  | Vegas Total | 214.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 111.5 | Team Proj. | 103.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.91 | Team Pace | 98.31 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Eric Bledsoe | Goran Dragic | P.J. Tucker | Markieff Morris | Alex Len | Proj Starter | Mo Williams | Andrew Wiggins | Shabazz Muhammad | Thaddeus Young | Gorgui Dieng | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 22 | 29 | 22 | 26 | Opp. Season | 15 | 12 | 15 | 8 | 29 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 27 | Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 1 | 30 | 19 | 14 | |
Phoenix
The Suns picked up a win over the Bucks last night and will now head to Minnesota to take on the Timberwolves. This is one of the best matchups on the board tonight. The T-Wolves are a fast-paced team that is ranked dead last in defensive efficiency. That’s a lethal combination for fantasy production. The Suns’ team total is set at a whopping 111.5 points tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 5-28
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26
Elite Plays
Eric Bledsoe (FD: $8900, DK: $9100 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 24)
Bledsoe has been on a tear recently, averaging 16 points, 6 rebounds, 8 assists, and 2 blocks per game over his last eight. He has also played 35 minutes per game during that stretch. Tonight he matches up against the Wolves, who have the worst defense in the entire NBA. He should have no problem getting to, and finishing at, the rim tonight.
Markieff Morris (FD: $6100, DK: $6500 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 22.7)
After only scoring more than 30 fantasy points one time in his previous ten games, Morris broke out with a 41 fantasy point effort last night against the Bucks. Hopefully that game can jump-start him and he can start to produce how he was earlier in the season. His price is extremely affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Target him tonight against the Wolves, who are ranked 22nd in fantasy points allowed to power forwards this season.
Secondary Plays
Alex Len (FD: $4300, DK: $3800 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 13.2)
Len is a super cheap option at center tonight. He rarely plays more than 25 minutes, but he can rack up fantasy points very quickly. He has scored at least 22 fantasy points in six of his last ten games and he draws a favorable matchup against the T-Wolves, who don’t rebound or defend opposing centers well.
Minnesota
The Wolves have lost 12 straight games and are large underdogs again tonight. They draw an appealing fantasy matchup though as the Suns are one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA and they have given up an average of 104.5 points per game to their opponents this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Phoenix)
Record: 21-16
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 25
Elite Plays
Mo Williams (FD: $5500, DK: $5000 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 21.9)
Williams got the start over Zach LaVine the other night against the Nuggets. He played very well and finished with 28.5 fantasy points. He has played well all season, but has had a problem staying healthy. As long as he draws the start tonight, he is one of the top value plays on the board. The Suns have been average against point guards this season and he should see close to 30 minutes of action. That’s more than enough time for Williams to reach value, as he is averaging nearly one fantasy point per minute this season.
Secondary Plays
Shabazz Muhammad (FD: $6500, DK: $6400 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 24.5)
Muhammad has played well as a starter this season, averaging 16 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. He is coming off of a terrific outing in which he had 19 points, while adding 6 rebounds and 4 assists. Tonight he squares off against the up-tempo Suns, who have allowed their opponents to score an average of 104.5 points per game this season. Muhammad has a high usage rate in this offense and should have the green light in a fast game against Phoenix.
Andrew Wiggins (FD: $6400, DK: $6400 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 21.8)
Deciding between Wiggins and Muhammad is tough. Both have played well recently and both are listed as the same price at the same position. Muhammad has a higher usage rate, but Wiggins has been playing more minutes recently. Basically, they are both quality fantasy options tonight. Wiggins has scored at least 31 fantasy points in six of his last seven games and should continue to see all of the minutes that he can handle.