NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, March 12th - Page 2

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-03-12 19:16:20

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New York at Boston

Vegas Line – New York -4.5, 199.5 Over/Under
New York Proj. Starters – Felton-Smith-Anthony-Stoudemire-Chandler
Boston Proj. Starters – Pressey-Bayless-Green-Humphries-Bass

New York

The Knicks are going to be without Tyson Chandler and Amar’e Stoudemire tonight so they will likely roll out some interesting lineups against the Celtics. The Knicks announced that they will start with Felton, Smith, Shumpert, Anthony, and Aldrich. The Knicks matchup against the Celtics is average at best. The Celtics play at an average pace and are holding their opponents to 99.1 points per game which is ranked in the top 10 this season.

The total for this game is fairly high though and with the Knicks being extremely short-handed, there are a few interesting plays here. Cole Aldrich is minimum salary across the board and offers a decent punt play at Center as he will draw the start for Chandler. Raymond Felton is also an interesting play as he won’t have to deal with the pesky Rondo. J.R. Swish is a nice mid-range option as well.

Carmelo Anthony – With Chandler and Stoudemire out of the lineup, Melo is going to have to be more aggressive offensively and on the glass. There was a point in the season where Melo was averaging close to 10 rebounds per game and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him reach double-digit rebounds tonight. Even though Melo has better splits at home, I really like his upside tonight.

Boston

The Celtics are facing a Knicks team that has been up and down defensively this season. While the Knicks are holding their opponents to 100 points per game, they are going to have trouble protecting their rim without Chandler and Stoudemire. It will be interesting to see if the Celtics decide to play small ball to match up with the Knicks or if they will continue to play two bigs and try to take advantage of the depleted front-court of the Knicks.

Rajon Rondo will not play tonight as he is still sitting out the second half of back to backs. This likely means Phil Pressey will draw the start at PG. With Rondo, Wallace, and Bradley all out, expect big minutes for Pressey, Bayless, Johnson, and Babb. Kris Humphries makes a decent punt at PF/Center, he has really played well when given big minutes this season.

Jerryd Bayless – Bayless will start at SG tonight, but will likely spend a lot of time at the point as well. His value goes up tremendously when he is the main ball handler. Expect him to play 35+ minutes tonight against a defense that is missing it’s best defender. Bayless is one of my favorite values in the industry.

Memphis at New Orleans

Vegas Line – Memphis -3, 190.5 Over/Under
Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Prince-Randolph-Gasol
New Orleans Proj. Starters – Roberts-Gordon-Evans-Davis-Ajinca

Memphis

The Grizzlies picked up a nice win against the Blazers last night and take on a struggling Pelicans team tonight. This game doesn’t scream fantasy potential, but that doesn’t mean that we have to avoid it completely. The Pelicans are ranked 20th or worse against PG’s, PF’s, and Centers this season and those just so happen to be the positions of the Grizzlies’ 3 best players. Mike Conley price is still cheap across the industry and makes a nice cash game play tonight. Marc Gasol has been the model of consistency and also makes a solid play.

Zach Randolph – If you look at Z-Bo’s season splits against the Pelicans, you likely won’t be too impressed, but in his last game against them, he posted 23 points, 20 rebounds, and 3 assists. He took over the second half of that game and really used his body to keep Davis far enough away that he couldn’t block his shot. Z-Bo makes a great play at PF tonight.

New Orleans

When I see the Grizzlies or Bulls on the schedule, I know that my analysis for their opponent that night is going to be a short one. The Grizzlies are one of the slowest paced teams in the league (averaging only 92 possessions per game) and are a top 3 defense in the NBA. While they have recently given up some big fantasy games to opponents, those are few and far between over the course of the entire season. If you take a look at the DvP rankings above, you will see a lot of rankings that are red. Red means stop. Anthony Davis is the one possible play here, but if I’m spending that much on a player, I want him to have a better matchup.

Dallas at Utah

Vegas Line – Dallas -4.5, 202 Over/Under
Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert
Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Hayward-Jefferson-Williams-Favors

Dallas

The Mavericks forgot to show up last night against the Warriors. That game not only hurt those of you that took any Mavs’ players, but it also killed the fantasy value of the Warriors’ starters as well. Hopefully we will see a better effort out of the Mavs tonight. They are facing a Jazz team that plays at a slow pace (94 possessions per game) and are ranked in the top half of the league in terms of points allowed per game (100). Shawn Marion makes a nice punt option, but there is only one Mavs’ player that stands out tonight.

Dirk Nowitzki – Dirk’s price is down across the industry. He is well under $8k on both FD and DK and is only $14k on DS tonight. He’s one of the safest cash game plays that you can find tonight. Dirk only played 30 minutes last night against the Warriors and should have fresh legs for tonight’s contest. In his last 14 games against the Jazz, Dirk is averaging close to 40 FP’s per game.

Utah

The Jazz have a nice matchup tonight against the Mavs who play at a much quicker pace than they do. The Mavs are giving up 102.3 points per game and are the 6th worst rebounding team in the league (48.2% of total rebounds). Trey Burke and Derrick Favors both have solid home splits this season, but both have tough matchups as the Mavs are ranked 3rd and 2nd against PG’s and Centers over the last 15 days.

Gordon Hayward – Gordon is always a tough player to predict. He is very inconsistent, but his price is always low because of that inconsistency. He is well under $7k on FD which is a steal for the upside that he offers. Hayward has topped 3 FP’s in 3 straight games and has a mis-match against the smaller Ellis.

Portland at San Antonio

Vegas Line – San Antonio -7.5, 212 Over/Under
Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter

Portland

The Blazers are 7.5 point underdogs in what is expected to be a very high scoring game. While the Spurs have been solid defensively over the course of the entire season, they have not defended well over the last two weeks. During that stretch, the Spurs are ranked 20th or worse against SG’s, SF’s, PF’s, and Centers and the Blazers are expected to score well over 100 points tonight.

Damian Lillard – Lillard finally broke out with a big game last night against the Grizzlies and I think he can keep it going tonight against the Spurs who have surrendered the 10th most FP’s to opposing PG’s this season. Lillard has a very high usage rate of 24.9% which should translate well in a game that features a lot of possessions for both teams.

LaMarcus Aldridge – In two games against the Spurs this season, Aldridge is averaging 25 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists, and a block. Aldridge also has a very high usage rate of 27.9% and finally looks to be completely over his injury.

San Antonio

The Spurs have a very favorable matchup tongiht against the Blazers who are giving up 102.9 points per game which is the 7th most in the NBA. The Spurs are projected to score 110 points tonight which really bodes well for their fantasy production. Despite giving up a lot of points, the Blazers have been very stout against SG’s, SF’s, and PF’s this season. Matthews, Batum, and Aldridge are all very good defenders.

Tony Parker – Parker is in a terrific spot tonight. His price is affordable across the industry and the Blazers have given up the 3rd most FP’s to opposing PG’s this season. Parker has scored over 35 FP’s in back to back games and should make it 3 in a row tonight. Parker has the highest usage rate on the Spurs at over 26%.

Cleveland at Phoenix

Vegas Line – Phoenix -8, 208.5 Over/Under
Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Waiters-Deng-Thompson-Hawes
Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Bledsoe-Green-Frye-Plumlee

Cleveland

The Cavs are 8 point underdogs tonight against the Suns, but this game has the feeling of a potential blowout. The Cavs are only 9-23 on the road this season and the Suns have been a very good team at home. I see the Cavs players better suited as tournament plays rather than cash game plays. Kyrie Irving is tough to trust on the road, Spencer Hawes production goes down with Varejao back, and Dion Waiters sees inconsistent playing time.

Phoenix

The Suns will be without P.J. Tucker tonight as he was suspended for 1 game after elbowing Blake Griffin. Marcus Morris will get the start in his place. This would typically give a small boost to Gerald Green as well, but Eric Bledsoe is expected to make his return to the lineup. It will be interesting to see how Bledsoe’s appearance will impact the fantasy value of the other guards, but it sounds like he is only going to play limited minutes tonight.

The Cavs have defended the PF and Center positions well this season, but are ranked 24th or worse against the other 3 positions over the last 15 days. Marcus Morris makes a nice plug-in value play and Gerald Green makes a nice upside play in a GPP.

Goran Dragic – I am a huge fan of the Dragicinator tonight. The Cavs have surrendered the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing PG’s this season and Dragic has a high usage rate of 24.1% which means the ball is in his hands often. Bledsoe will likely hinder his fantasy value moving forward, but he still has a couple of games as the primary ball-handler.

Golden State at L.A.Clippers

Vegas Line – L.A.. Clippers -6.5, 211 Over/Under
Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Iguodala-Lee-Bogut
L.A.Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Collison-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan

Golden State

The Warriors demolished the Mavs last night and picked up an easy win in which the starter’s didn’t have to play a lot of minutes. That should help their chances tonight against the red hot Clippers. The Clippers are giving up 101 points per game and both of these teams like to push the pace. It is worth noting that the total opened at 214 and has moved down to 211. Both of these teams have better defenses than given credit for.

Stephen Curry continues to see less than 30 minutes per game. A big game against the Clippers could change that, but it’s a tough matchup and I never like to use players that aren’t at full strength. Andrew Bogut makes a nice punt option at Center tonight. While his minutes have been down, he has been making the most of them and the Clippers have not been great defensively against Centers.

David Lee – Lee’s minutes have been down over the past two weeks, but it’s not a trend that is going to continue moving forward. His minutes were limited in his first couple of games back from injury and the Warriors have been involved in a few blowouts recently. I love the matchup for him tonight against the Clippers who have given up the 7th most FP’s to PF’s this season.

L.A.Clippers

The Clippers have been red hot recently and a matchup against the Warriors may seem like a fantasy gold mine. I’m not so sure about that though. Both of these teams average less than 99 possessions per game and the Warriors actually own a top 10 defense. If you look at the DvP rankings, the Warriors are above average defensively against all five positions on the floor.

Both Jamal Crawford and J.J. Redick are expected to miss tonight’s game which means Darren Collison will draw another start at SG. He has played great recently, but does draw a tough matchup against Klay tonight. I don’t mind Blake Griffin here, but the Warriors are 9th in the league in total rebounding and I think there are better values out there.

Chris Paul – I love Paul’s price on both FD and DK. While Paul’s production has taken a slight dip with Collison in the starting lineup next to him, Paul has owned the Warriors this season. In two games against them, he is averaging 34 points, 13 assists, and 4 steals. And that’s per game! It’s a great time to take a superstar that will likely be under-owned tonight.