NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, May 13th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy point averages listed use FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.
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Washington at Atlanta – 8:00 PM ET
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -8, 199.5 Over/Under
- Washington Proj. Starters – Sessions-Beal-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
| Washington | Atlanta | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199 |  | Vegas Total | 199 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.0 | Vegas Sprd | -8.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.8 | Team Proj. | 103.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.98 | Team Pace | 96.44 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ramon Sessions | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | |
| Opp. Season | 15 | 16 | 12 | 12 | 5 | Opp. Season | 17 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 1 | Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 4 | |
Washington
The Wizards fell short in Game 4 and now head back to Atlanta with the series tied at two games apiece. They are hoping to have John Wall back for tonight’s game, but he’s listed as a game-time decision. Based on the Vegas line, it doesn’t look like oddsmakers are expecting Wall to play. The Wizards are 8-point underdogs tonight in Game 5. If John Wall is unable to play tonight, Ramon Sessions and Bradley Beal will continue to see an uptick in minutes and/or usage.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.2 (Rank: 5)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
Bradley Beal (FanDuel: $7700, DraftKings: $8200 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 22.2)
Beal obviously sees a huge boost in usage with John Wall out. Even if Wall plays tonight, Beal would still be a borderline elite play. He has been tremendous in this series, averaging 41 fantasy points in 41 minutes per game. He is the elite play at shooting guard tonight, as the Hawks have had no answer for him in this series. His price has come up on both FanDuel and DraftKings, but there is no reason to fade him until he gives us a reason to do so.
Ramon Sessions (FD: $5900, DK: $5300 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 19.3)
This pick hinges on the health of John Wall. The swelling in his wrist has continued to subside, but no one would be surprised if he sat out tonight’s game. Sessions has been very good in his three starts in this series, averaging 25 fantasy points per game. If Wall is forced to miss tonight’s Game 5, Sessions would immediately become one of the top value plays on the board.
Paul Pierce (FD: $4900, DK: $5500 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 20.1)
Pierce has scored at least 21 fantasy points in each of his last six playoff games. He is coming off of his best fantasy outing of the postseason, scoring 35 fantasy points in 33 minutes in Game 4. Even though he has been outproduced by Otto Porter recently, I’ll give the edge to Pierce tonight in a pivotal Game 5 on the road.
Nene Hilario (FD: $3800, DK: $4500 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 22)
There were plenty of skeptics with Hilario heading into Game 4 and for good reason. He was just too cheap to pass up on though, and hopefully everyone who read the Grind Down rostered him. He scored 26 fantasy points in 31 minutes of action. As long as he continues to see 30+ minutes per game, he should have no problem reaching value at his depressed price point.
Secondary Plays
Marcin Gortat (FD: $7300, DK: $6800 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 17.3)
Otto Porter (FD: $5100, DK: $5800 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 15.5)
Atlanta
The Hawks picked up a huge win in Game 4 to take back home-court advantage in this series. The Hawks have underwhelmed so far in the postseason, but they are only two wins away from heading to the Eastern Conference Finals. The Hawks are large favorites at home tonight against the Wizards. Their team total is set at 104 points, which is actually the highest total on the board.
Opponent Breakdown (Washington)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.6 (Rank: 9)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
Paul Millsap (FD: $8800, DK: $8500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.6)
Millsap got into foul trouble (AGAIN) in Game 4, but he still finished with 36 fantasy points in 27 minutes of action. Assuming he can stay out of foul trouble tonight, he could push for 40 minutes in a pivotal Game 5 at home. A lot of people tend to overreact in DFS and they will likely fade Millsap tonight after failing to reach value in his last two games. In my eyes, this is the perfect time to target him in both cash games and tournaments.
Jeff Teague (FD: $6900, DK: $7300 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 24.9)
Charles Barkley says that the Hawks can only go as far as Jeff Teague takes them. While I don’t completely agree with him, they are certainly a more formidable opponent when Teague is attacking the rim and creating shots for his teammates. He had a terrific outing in Game 4, scoring 47 fantasy points in 32 minutes of action. Dollar for dollar, he is the top play at point guard tonight.
Secondary Plays
Al Horford (FD: $7900, DK: $8000 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.3)
Kyle Korver (FD: $6100, DK: $6000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 14.2)
Dennis Schroder (FD: $4000, DK: $4300 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 27)
Memphis at Golden State – 10:30 PM ET
- Vegas Line – Golden State -9.5, 195.5 Over/Under
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Allen-Randolph-Gasol
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
| Memphis | Golden State | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 195 |  | Vegas Total | 195 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.5 | Vegas Sprd | -9.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 93.0 | Team Proj. | 102.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.96 | Team Pace | 94.93 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Tony Allen | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | |
| Opp. Season | 6 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 16 | Opp. Season | 7 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 3 | |
Memphis
The Grizzlies lost a tough Game 4 on Monday night against the Warriors. They had a great chance to take a commanding 3-1 lead in this series, but they now have to head to Oakland with the series all tied at two games apiece. The Grizzlies are 9.5-point underdogs tonight in Game 5 with their team total set at only 93 points. The Grizzlies shouldn’t be avoided altogether, but we may want to limit our exposure to them, as they have the lowest team total on the board.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.5 (Rank: 14)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
Marc Gasol (FD: $8700, DK: $8300 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.7)
Al Horford, Marcin Gortat, and Andrew Bogut are all decent fantasy options, but all three are too inconsistent for my liking. Once again, I’m going to do everything I can to get Gasol in all of my cash game lineups. He has been the model of consistency this postseason, scoring at least 38 fantasy points in eight of the Grizzlies’ nine playoff games. I’m willing to pay a premium for a player that has such a high floor.
Zach Randolph (FD: $7200, DK: $7600 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 24.2)
The Warriors shut Randolph down in Game 4, holding him to 12 points and 11 rebounds. We can let one bad game slide though, as Randolph was terrific in the first three games of the series. He is still averaging 32 fantasy points per game and he still has a size advantage in the post over Draymond Green. Look for Randolph to bounce back tonight in Game 5.
Secondary Plays
Mike Conley (FD: $5800, DK: $6000 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 23.8)
Courtney Lee (FD: $3800, DK: $4800 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 15.2)
Golden State
The Warriors took back homecourt advantage with a critical Game 4 win in Memphis. We finally saw Stephen Curry do Stephen Curry-like things. If he can keep that up the rest of the series, the Grizzlies are going to have a very tough time getting another win, let alone two. The Warriors are large favorites tonight at home and they have the second-highest team total on the board at 103 points.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.2 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
Stephen Curry (FD: $10100, DK: $10400 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 28.4)
Curry finally broke out in Game 4, scoring 50 fantasy points in 39 minutes of action. His price is still expensive on both FanDuel and DraftKings, but he’s easily the top overall fantasy option on the board tonight. He has played well at home all season long and if the Grizzlies are able to keep this game within striking distance, Curry should see around 40 minutes of playing time.
Harrison Barnes (FD: $4300, DK: $4700 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 14.8)
Dollar for dollar, Barnes is my favorite play at small forward tonight. He has played at least 33 minutes and he has scored at least 22 fantasy points in each of the last two games. He is also playing at home, where he has had much better splits throughout his career. Barnes is cheap and has a great chance to reach value tonight on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Secondary Plays
Draymond Green (FD: $8000, DK: $8000 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 17.2)
Klay Thompson (FD: $7100, DK: $7400 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 27.3)
Andrew Bogut (FD: $5300, DK: $5300 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 13.3)