NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, May 6th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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Chicago at Cleveland – 7:00 PM ET
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -6, 194.5 Over/Under
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Butler-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Shumpert-Miller-James-Mozgov
| Chicago | Cleveland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194 |  | Vegas Total | 194 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.0 | Vegas Sprd | -6.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.3 | Team Proj. | 100.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.48 | Team Pace | 94.07 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Jimmy Butler | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | Iman Shumpert | Mike Miller | LeBron James | Timofey Mozgov | |
| Opp. Season | 9 | 20 | 24 | 9 | 12 | Opp. Season | 26 | 3 | 17 | 8 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 1 | Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 2 | |
Chicago
The Bulls picked up a win in Game 1 against the Cavaliers and they made it look easy. They played outstanding defense on both LeBron James and Kyrie Irving. The Bulls got the split that they were looking for, but they won’t be satisfied with just that, as they have a chance to take a commanding 2-0 lead in this series. The Bulls are listed as 6-point underdogs in Game 2, but I’m expecting another solid performance from Derrick Rose and company.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.5 (Rank: 12)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
Pau Gasol (FanDuel: $8500, DraftKings: $8400 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.4)
The Cavaliers have no answer for Gasol, especially when they play small. Gasol had 21 points, 14 rebounds, 4 assists, and 4 blocks in Game 1. He should be able to replicate that type of performance tonight in Game 2. Blake Griffin is the obvious play at power forward tonight, but targeting both may not be a bad idea.
Derrick Rose (FD: $8100, DK: $7500 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 30.9)
Rose has shown me two things so far in the postseason: 1. That he has the ability to take over a game and 2. That he is still very inconsistent game to game. While I love the upside that he provides, I’m a little hesitant to have 100% exposure to him in cash games, especially on a site like DraftKings where you only have to roster one point guard. He’s still an elite play, but in theory he is a better tournament play than cash game play.
Mike Dunleavy (FD: $4200, DK: $4900 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 14.3)
Dunleavy picked up right where he left off against the Bucks, scoring 25 fantasy points in 39 minutes of action in Game 1. As crazy as it sounds, small forward is actually one of the deepest positions on the board. There is little risk with Dunleavy, making him a strong cash game play in all league formats.
Secondary Plays
Jimmy Butler (FD: $8900, DK: $8700 / MPG: 39 / Usage Rate: 21.7)
Joakim Noah (FD: $5500, DK: $6300 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 13.7)
Cleveland
The Cavaliers looked a lot like they did earlier in the season. They had some bad turnovers, they weren’t sharing the ball, and they had lapses on the defensive end of the floor. I expect a much better performance from them tonight, but this is still a very tough matchup. The Bulls are one of the best defensive teams left in the playoffs, as they ranked 11th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential in the regular season.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Points Allowed Per Game: 98 (Rank: 10)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
LeBron James (FD: $11500, DK: $11200 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 32.5)
After Game 1, James said that he needed to come out and be more aggressive in Game 2. That’s music to my ears, as James can rack up fantasy points in a hurry when he is aggressive on the offensive end of the floor. James had 19 points, 15 rebounds, and 9 assists in Game 1. If he can pick up his production offensively, he could end up with a 60-fantasy point outing tonight in Game 2.
Kyrie Irving (FD: $10000, DK: $8800 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 26.1)
Irving is an elite play on DraftKings and a borderline play at best on FanDuel. At a price of $10,000, he needs 50 fantasy points to reach value. That’s not out of the question, but it’s hard to expect that type of outing from him against a very good defensive team in the Bulls. Given their price differential on the different sites, I’ll likely use Rose on FanDuel and Irving on DraftKings.
Iman Shumpert (FD: $5100, DK: $4700 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 17.2)
With J.R. Smith still suspended for Game 2, Shumpert will draw another start at shooting guard. He played well in Game 1, finishing with 27 fantasy points in 41 minutes of action. The Cavaliers need his solid defense in this series, so don’t be surprised to see him play close to 40 minutes again tonight.
Secondary Plays
Tristan Thompson (FD: $5300, DK: $5200 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 13.9)
Timofey Mozgov (FD: $4500, DK: $5500 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 16.1)
L.A. Clippers at Houston – 9:30 PM ET
- Vegas Line – Houston -7, 213.5 Over/Under
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Rivers-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
- Houston Proj. Starters – Terry-Harden-Ariza-Jones-Howard
| L.A. Clippers | Houston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213 |  | Vegas Total | 213 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.3 | Team Proj. | 110.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.25 | Team Pace | 105.68 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | Proj Starter | Jason Terry | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Terrence Jones | Dwight Howard | |
| Opp. Season | 3 | 23 | 21 | 29 | 21 | Opp. Season | 2 | 17 | 28 | 18 | 9 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 5 | Opp. Last 7 | ||||||
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers picked up a huge win in Game 1 without Chris Paul. Having already picked up the split in Houston, Doc Rivers said that he doubts Paul will be able to play tonight. Since the Clippers don’t play again until Saturday, missing this game would give him an extra three days of rest. If Paul is forced from tonight’s game, Austin Rivers and Jamal Crawford would split the point guard duties. The Clippers are 7-point underdogs tonight in a game that features a total of 213 points.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.6 (Rank: 17)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15
Elite Plays
Blake Griffin (FD: $11400, DK: $10300 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 28.1)
Griffin messed around and got a triple-double in Game 1, finishing with 26 points, 14 rebounds, and 13 assists. If Chris Paul is out of the lineup again tonight, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him post his third consecutive trip-dub. He is the top play at any position tonight and he’s an extremely tough fade in cash games. His floor has basically been 50 fantasy points in the playoffs.
Jamal Crawford (FD: $5100, DK: $4500 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 28.2)
Crawford was my favorite play heading into Game 1 of the series and hopefully everyone took him on Monday night. He finished the game with 21 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists, which was more than enough to reach and exceed value. Crawford is an elite play again tonight, especially if Chris Paul is unable to play.
Matt Barnes (FD: $4300, DK: $4400 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 14.6)
Barnes hit some huge shots in Game 1 against the Rockets. He finished with 40 fantasy points in 42 minutes of action. Dollar for dollar, he is the top play at shooting guard tonight. He should see close to 40 minutes of playing time once again and he draws a favorable matchup against Houston, who was ranked 21st against small forwards during the regular season.
Secondary Plays
DeAndre Jordan (FD: $8700, DK: $7700 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 13.4)
J.J. Redick (FD: $5000, DK: $5000 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 20.5)
Austin Rivers (FD: $3600, DK: $2200 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 17.9) – Move him up to an elite play if Chris Paul can’t suit up.
Houston
The Rockets are looking to bounce back after an embarrassing loss in Game 1. I’m expecting a much better effort from Houston on both sides of the ball. They are 7-point favorites tonight with their team total set at 110 points. Both of these teams love to push the pace and there should be plenty of points scored tonight in Game 2.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Clippers)
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.1 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
James Harden (FD: $10000, DK: $10200 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 31.3)
The Clippers did a terrific job on Harden after the first quarter. He finished the game with 20 points and 12 assists, but the Clippers forced him into 9 turnovers. Harden should have a much better outing in Game 2. Look for him to take over offensively. The masses will likely be off of him tonight, which doesn’t make a ton of sense given his discounted price point.
Dwight Howard (FD: $8800, DK: $8200 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 23.3)
Use Howard at center tonight and move on. Howard is easily the top play at the position and it’s not even close. He had 45 fantasy points in Game 1 and I’m expecting an ever bigger performance out of him in Game 2. He should play close to 40 minutes again tonight and he’ll get plenty of easy buckets with all of the attention that the Clippers are paying to James Harden defensively.
Secondary Plays
Trevor Ariza (FD: $6200, DK: $5600 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 16.8)
Josh Smith (FD: $6200, DK: $6500 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 24.2)
Corey Brewer (FD: $4300, DK: $4300 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 20.9)