NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, November 5th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Orlando at Philadelphia
- Vegas Line – Orlando -2.5, 195.5 Over/Under
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Fournier-Harris-Frye-Vucevic
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Wroten-Thompson-Richard Mbah a Moute-Noel-Sims
| Orlando | Philadelphia | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 195 |  | Vegas Total | 195 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -2.5 | Vegas Sprd | 2.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.0 | Team Proj. | 96.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.09 | Team Pace | 99.50 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Evan Fournier | Tobias Harris | Channing Frye | Nikola Vucevic | Proj Starter | Tony Wroten | Hollis Thompson | Luc Richard Mbah a Moute | Nerlens Noel | Henry Sims | |
| Opp. Season | 5 | 29 | 26 | 1 | 29 | Opp. Season | 19 | 23 | 6 | 28 | 27 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 29 | 30 | 29 | Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 24 | 10 | 27 | |||
Orlando
There is nothing better than a full slate of NBA action. There are 12 games on the slate tonight so I will try to keep the team analysis to a minimum and focus on which players I will be targeting in tonight’s leagues.
The Magic played very well against the short-handed Bulls last night, but they eventually fell short and are now 0-4 on the season. It’s certainly not the start that Magic fans were looking for, but they have a good chance of picking up their first win tonight as they face another win-less team in the Sixers. This is a terrific matchup for fantasy goodness. The Sixers push the pace (99.5 possessions per 48 minutes) and are allowing opponents to score 103.5 points per game this season. Expect an uptempo game with very little defense played in this one.
Prime Plays
Nikola Vucevic – This is a rare case where not one, not two, but three Magic players are featured in the ‘prime plays’ section. The combination of pace and lack of defense from the Sixers is too good to pass up. Vucevic has been dominating his competition with terrific low post moves and a good outside jumper. He’s averaging 18 points, 15 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. In this matchup, he may be the top center on the board tonight regardless of price.
Tobias Harris – Harris played well in last night’s loss to the Bulls. He scored 21 points and added 9 rebounds in 37 minutes of playing time. Tonight he gets a more favorable matchup against the Sixers who have allowed the sixth most fantasy points to opposing SFs this season. Harris is at his best when he is in the open floor and he should get plenty of open looks in transition tonight against the Sixers.
Elfrid Payton – Payton may not be the best scorer, but he can really fill up the stat sheet which is what we look for in daily fantasy basketball. In 28 minutes per game this season, he is averaging 8 points, 4 rebounds, 8 assists and a steal per game. His price is extremely cheap on DraftKings and it’s affordable on FanDuel. He should be able to create some havoc on both ends of the floor tonight against the Sixers.
Secondary Plays
Evan Fournier – If you are looking for salary cap relief at SG, you can do much worse than Fournier. He’s played well in Victor Oladipo’s absence and he should get plenty of open looks against a bad Sixers defense.
Philadelphia
The Sixers have fallen to 0-4 on the season. They have lost by an average of 13 points per game. The defensive side of the ball is obviously an issue, but according to ESPN, the Sixers are the league’s most inefficient offense in the NBA. Basically, the Sixers are bad on both sides of the ball. That said, they are only 2.5-point underdogs tonight against the Magic in a game that features a total of 195 points. As long as this game stays close, there will be good fantasy options from both teams.
Prime Plays
Tony Wroten – With Michael Carter-Williams out, Wroten has made the most of his opportunities. Through the first four games, he is averaging 19 points, 5 rebounds, 7 assists, and 3 steals per game. Wroten’s usage rate is off the charts at 29.5 which is the 12th highest of any player in the NBA. He’s going to have plenty of chances to score tonight in what should be a fast-paced game against the Magic. Wroten also among the league-leaders in steals per game which is a great bonus in daily fantasy.
Secondary Plays
Nerlens Noel – Noel’s ability to rack up blocks and steals really boosts his fantasy appeal. Through the first four games, he is averaging two blocks and two steals per game. He is also averaging 10 points and 5 rebounds per game.
Hollis Thompson – Thompson is averaging 31 minutes and 9 shot attempts per game this season. As long as those numbers stay where they are, he will continue to make a strong value play at SG/SF.
Miami at Charlotte
- Vegas Line – Charlotte -2, 192 Over/Under
- Miami Proj. Starters – Cole-Wade-Deng-Williams-Bosh
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Stephenson-Williams-Jefferson
| Miami | Charlotte | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 192 |  | Vegas Total | 192 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.0 | Team Proj. | 97.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.29 | Team Pace | 94.10 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Norris Cole | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Shawne Williams | Chris Bosh | Proj Starter | Kemba Walker | Gerald Henderson | Lance Stephenson | Marvin Williams | Al Jefferson | |
| Opp. Season | 7 | 25 | 8 | 16 | 10 | Opp. Season | 9 | 27 | 24 | 3 | 9 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 25 | 14 | 8 | Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 27 | 28 | 7 | |||
Miami
The Heat lost their first game of the season last night against the Rockets. They will get right back at it tonight as they travel to Charlotte to take on the Hornets for the second half of a back-to-back. Dwyane Wade played in the Heat’s first back-to-back this season, but make sure that he is in the starting lineup if you are considering him tonight. This is one of the tougher matchups on the board. The Hornets only average 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes and are a top ten defensive team.
Prime Plays
Shawne Williams – It’s a little strange that Williams makes the ‘prime plays’ list, while Chris Bosh is listed on the ‘secondary plays’ list, but we have to factor in price as well as matchup. Williams is still close to minimum salary despite averaging 23.3 fantasy points (FD scoring) per game this season. He’s a nice value play if you are looking for some salary cap relief at SF.
Secondary Plays
Chris Bosh – Bosh had his worst game of the season last night and wasn’t able to take advantage of his mis-match against Dwight Howard on the perimeter. We will see if he can take advantage of his same mis-match tonight against Al Jefferson who has never been known for his defense.
Charlotte
The Hornets fell to 1-3 after losing last night’s game to the Pelicans in New Orleans. Tonight they face the Heat in the second half of a back-to-back. The Hornets are currently 2-point favorites and the game has a total of 192 points. Through the first four games, the Hornets offense has looked out of sorts. They are currently ranked 28th in offensive efficiency. A large part of that has to do with Al Jefferson’s decreased usage. It’s going to take some time for this offense to adjust to the Lance Stephenson acquisition and until they do, I’ll be using the Hornets sparingly in my lineups.
Prime Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Al Jefferson – As mentioned above, Jefferson’s usage rate is down this season. He currently has the 39th highest usage rate in the NBA compared to having the 13th highest usage rate last season. The Bobcats would be smart to give their big man the ball, especially in a prime matchup against Chris Bosh.
Gary Neal – If Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is forced to miss tonight’s game, Neal would become a solid value play. Over his last two games, he is averaging 19 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assists in 29 minutes of action.
Toronto at Boston
- Vegas Line – Boston -1, 205 Over/Under
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Ross-Patterson-Valanciunas
- Boston Proj. Starters – Rondo-Bradley-Green-Sullinger-Olynyk
| Toronto | Boston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205 |  | Vegas Total | 205 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.0 | Vegas Sprd | -1.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.0 | Team Proj. | 103.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.59 | Team Pace | 102.82 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | Terrence Ross | Patrick Patterson | Jonas Valanciunas | Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Avery Bradley | Jeff Green | Jared Sullinger | Kelly Olynyk | |
| Opp. Season | 13 | 24 | 16 | 29 | 2 | Opp. Season | 24 | 14 | 19 | 8 | 24 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 23 | 2 | 2 | Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 12 | 23 | 24 | |||
Toronto
The Raptors will be without Amir Johnson again tonight as he is expected to miss the next couple of games with an ankle injury. They were also worried that they could be without Jonas Valanciunas as he was hit in the face last night by Steven Adams. The good news is that the X-rays were negative and he is currently listed as probable for tonight’s game. The Raptors come into tonight’s game as 1-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 205 points. Both of these teams play at an above average pace which should lead to a high-scoring game.
Prime Plays
Kyle Lowry – Lowry was somewhat of a bust last night against the Thunder as he could only muster up 9 points, 3 rebounds, and 5 assists. He only played 31 minutes in that game though so he should have fresh legs for tonight’s contest against the Celtics. While Rajon Rondo does get a lot of steals, he’s not a great on-ball defender. Lowry should be able to get to wherever he wants on the floor and is in a good spot for a bounce back game.
Patrick Patterson – Patterson will get another start at PF tonight with Amir Johnson out. His two starts this season have been a mixed bag as he did next to nothing in his first start and then bounced back with 14 points and 8 rebounds last night against the Thunder. Patterson is a very capable scorer that should be able to take advantage of his extended playing time tonight. Fire him up as a top value play tonight.
Secondary Plays
DeMar DeRozan – Avery Bradley is considered one of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA, but so far this season that hasn’t been the case. The Celtics have allowed the ninth most fantasy points to opposing PGs. DeRozan has a high floor and is a safe play in cash games.
Boston
The Celtics have been one of the fastest-paced teams in the league this season. They are averaging 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes which is great news for Rajon Rondo’s fantasy outlook. The Celtics are only 1-2 through their first three games, but they have played well and almost pulled off the upset in Dallas. Tonight’s game against the Raptors should be one of the higher-scoring games of the night and the fact that it’s expected to stay close only helps it’s fantasy appeal.
Prime Plays
Rajon Rondo – Rondo’s shot has been off to start the season (38% from the floor), but he’s otherwise been dominant on the floor. He is one of the few players in the NBA that can take over a game without scoring. Through the first three games, Rondo is averaging 8 points, 9 rebounds, and 12 assists which roughly equates to 36 fantasy points per game (FD scoring). Rondo has the potential to post a triple-double every time he takes the floor. Rondo’s matchup against Kyle Lowry and the Raptors may look tough on paper, but the high total and his ability to fill up the stat sheet makes him solid target in all league formats.
Secondary Plays
Jared Sullinger – I will continue to list Sullinger as a recommended play. He’s been good through the first three games, but hasn’t lived up to the lofty expectations that were put on him in the preseason. He has yet to post a double-double, but has a good chance of making that happen tonight against the Raptors who will be without Amir Johnson.
New York at Detroit
- Vegas Line – Detroit -4, 188 Over/Under
- New York Proj. Starters – * Larkin-Shumpert-Anthony-Stoudemire-Dalembert*
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Caldwell-Pope-Singler-Smith-Drummond
| New York | Detroit | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | 188 | ||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | ||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | 96.0 | ||||||||||
| Team Pace | 88.61 | Team Pace | 93.69 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Shane Larkin | Iman Shumpert | Carmelo Anthony | Amar’e Stoudemire | Samuel Dalembert | Proj Starter | Brandon Jennings | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Kyle Singler | Josh Smith | Andre Drummond | |
| Opp. Season | 6 | 15 | 3 | 24 | 8 | Opp. Season | 18 | 8 | 15 | 14 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 14 | 7 | 6 | Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 9 | 16 | 5 | |||
New York
The Knicks are a tough team to predict right now. They are trying to implement Derek Fisher’s Phil Jackson’s triangle offense, but have had little success with it thus far. They are ranked 20th in offensive efficiency and are the slowest-paced team in the league. So basically, the Knicks are a slow-paced team with a bad offense. That’s not the recipe for success in daily fantasy basketball. The matchup against the Pistons doesn’t help as the Pistons are only averaging 93.7 possessions per 48 minutes themselves. With 11 other games on the schedule, you don’t need to waste any of your roster spots on the Knicks tonight.
Prime Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
NONE
Detroit
Despite bringing in Stan Van Gundy, the Pistons have looked eerily similar to last season. They have started 0-3 on the season while only averaging 86.7 points per game which is the lowest in the NBA. The Pistons offense has been so bad that Van Gundy is already considering starting Josh Smith, Greg Monroe, and Andre Drummond together after he said that he wasn’t going to do that when the season started. Much like the Knicks, this could be a situation to avoid completely. The total for this game is set at 188 points and the fantasy options here are few and far between.
Prime Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
NONE
Minnesota at Brooklyn
- Vegas Line – Brooklyn -5, 207 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Wiggins-Brewer-Young-Pekovic
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Bogdanovic-Johnson-Garnett-Lopez
| Minnesota | Brooklyn | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207 |  | Vegas Total | 207 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.0 | Team Proj. | 106.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.37 | Team Pace | 94.71 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ricky Rubio | Andrew Wiggins | Corey Brewer | Thaddeus Young | Nikola Pekovic | Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Bojan Bogdanovic | Joe Johnson | Kevin Garnett | Brook Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 29 | 1 | 21 | 13 | 19 | Opp. Season | 3 | 22 | 2 | 18 | 22 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 1 | 17 | 18 | Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 22 | 11 | 22 | |||
Minnesota
The Timberwolves are looking for their second win of the season tonight as they take on the Nets in Brooklyn. The Wolves are only 5-point underdogs in this game that features a total of 208 points. The high total is a bit surprising considering the pace that both of these teams play at, but neither team has been very efficient on the defensive end of the floor. Even though the game is expected to be high scoring, there aren’t any must plays on the Wolves tonight.
Prime Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Ricky Rubio – Rubio has quietly gotten off to a strong start this season. He is averaging 9 points, 6 rebounds, and 10 assists per game. He should do more of the same tonight against Deron Williams and the Nets who have allowed more fantasy points to opposing PGs than any team in the NBA this season.
Thaddeus Young – Young missed part of the Wolves game against the Bulls the other night with a neck injury, but he has been cleared to start tonight’s game. In his previous two games, Young had averaged 23 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assists per game.
Brooklyn
The Nets are 2-1 and have actually looked very good here in the early going. They are second only to the Dallas Mavericks in offensive efficiency and they should only get better now that Brook Lopez is back in the mix. The Nets are in a great matchup tonight against the Timberwolves who play at a fast pace and have a below average defense. The one major concern with the Nets is that they are well-balanced offensively and their production can come from a number of different sources on any given night.
Prime Plays
Joe Johnson – Johnson continues to fly under the radar despite a terrific start to the season. Johnson has posted 31, 53, and 28 fantasy points (FD scoring) in his first three games this season. His price has yet to reflect his recent level of production and he finds himself in a prime matchup tonight against the Timberwolves who have allowed the 10th most fantasy points to opposing SGs this season. Johnson has a high floor and a high ceiling which makes him a solid target in all league formats.
Secondary Plays
Deron Williams – Williams is still only shooting 39% from the field and 17% from the three-point line. His shooting woes will end soon enough and when they do, he should start putting up some huge fantasy outings.