NBA Odds & Betting Picks for Today: Denver Nuggets at Charlotte Hornets

The Denver Nuggets are 9.5-point road favorites and the Over/Under is 207.5 at online sports betting sites. Here’s a look at NBA odds and betting picks for today, Thursday, March 5th, 2020.

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NBA Betting Picks for Today: Nuggets at Hornets

Charlotte Hornets

Let’s not sugarcoat things, the Charlotte Hornets are hot garbage right now. Despite their struggles, the Hornets still have an outside shot at making the NBA playoffs.

Charlotte enters the game sitting10th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 21-40. The Hornets are 5-5 in their last 10 games, but their wins have come against the Bulls, Pistons, Knicks (2x) and a random win against the Raptors. In nearly every single one of those games, the other team was handicapped with injuries. All of that aside, I’m not here to talk about how bad the Hornets are. I’m here to tell you how low scoring tonight’s matchup will be.

Since the All-Star break, the Hornets have failed to score 100 points in four out of the seven games. The Hornets offense is averaging merely 94 points during that span. Conversely, opponents have failed to score over 104 in all but two of those games. Moreover, the Hornets are ranked dead last in the league in both pace and offensive efficiency (and by a fairly large margin) since returning from the break. In terms of defensive efficiency they are actually ranked 7th. There is a decent chance that their best scorer, Devonte Graham, may not play Thursday night. If that is in fact the case, it will be just another night where the Hornets look like one of the most inept offenses in the league.

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets have been completely destroyed by injuries for a large part of the season, but they come into this game at full health. They currently sit 3rd in the Western Conference with a record of 41-20 and are 6-4 in their last 10 games. On the season, the Nuggets rank 29th in pace, 9th in offensive efficiency and 12th in defensive efficiency. But don’t pay much attention to these numbers; they are mostly misleading because of all the injuries they’ve endured throughout the season.

With this team at full health, they are probably a top three defensive team in the league. Looking at their starting lineup, Murray ranks 12th in defensive plus-minus at his position, Harris ranks 1st, Barton 20th, Millsap 4th and Jokic 4th. Don’t be fooled; this team is a solid defensive team when healthy. It just so happens they get a superb matchup against a stagnant Hornets offense. That offense is in even deeper trouble if they are forced to lay without their best scorer.

NBA Betting Picks: Under 207.5 Total Points

If you can’t tell already, I love the under tonight. Even though 207.5 is a pretty low total, I don’t see many ways that the Hornets manage to score over 90 points in this game. Like I stated earlier, the Nuggets are a fantastic defensive team and the Hornets may possibly be without Graham. Aside from Graham, the Hornets don’t have a go-to scorer to rely on. Additionally, these are the two slowest paced teams in the NBA. At face value, this game is going to be painful for the average basketball fan to watch. As for me? less scoring the better, at least in this game. I won’t be surprised if the two teams combine for less than 190 points even in a blowout, which is one reason to stay away from it, specifically the Hornets, for DFS purposes.

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NBA 2019-2020 Betting Record: 14-11-2 (+3 units)

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Nuggets at Hornets NBA Player Props

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Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images

About the Author

Grant Neiffer (gneiffer07)

One of the most vibrant and interesting personalities in all of DFS and sports betting, Grant Neiffer (aka gneiffer07) has Economics and Accounting degrees from Azusa Pacific University. He’s been playing DFS since 2013 and fantasy sports from the ripe old age of 10. In recent years, Grant has turned his attention primarily to sports betting, and in 2021, he finished 3rd in the DraftKings Sports Betting National Championship, taking home $230,000. You can find all of Grant’s sports betting analysis on ScoresAndOdds and the Action Network. Follow Grant on Twitter – @gneiffer07