NBA Player Props for Friday, 3/6: Best Bets & Predictions Today
What kind of performances can we expect from Jayson Tatum, Austin Reaves, and Amen Thompson? Follow along as our NBA betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NBA prop bets for Friday, March 6th. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more NBA plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Jayson Tatum is back! Boston’s best player from the last half decade will return to the floor this evening after nearly a year away from live action since suffering a torn Achilles in last summer’s playoffs. The Celtics will host the Mavericks as part of a 7-game Friday slate.
Per usual, the NBA injury report is filled with big names tonight. LeBron James and Norman Powell have already been ruled out. Josh Hart, Amen Thompson, and Jabari Smith are listed as questionable as of this writing.
As always, be sure to use tools like CourtIQ and our NBA starting lineups page to evaluate how injuries impact usage and to search for inefficiencies in the player prop and DFS markets.
Below, you can find 3 of my favorite picks for Friday, March 6th!
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Best NBA Player Props for Friday, March 6th
Here are my top player prop bets for today, with tip-off scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on Friday, March 6th:
- Jayson Tatum Over/Under 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
- Austin Reaves Over/Under 10.5 Rebounds + Assists
- Amen Thompson Over/Under 17.5 Points
Jayson Tatum UNDER 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-105, Hard Rock)
HARDROCKIt was less than 30 days ago that Tatum was assigned to practice with Boston’s G League affiliate. It’s only been a couple of weeks since Tatum has advanced to playing 5-on-5 scrimmages.
Consequently, it’s difficult to see him playing more than 15-20 minutes on Friday in his first live game action since tearing his Achilles during last year’s playoffs.
Tatum is joining a Boston team that has plenty of capable shooters, which means he shouldn’t be asked to shoulder a heavy offensive burden right away. It’s also unlikely that we see him put up big numbers on the boards or as a facilitator as he works to regain his timing and conditioning.
Austin Reaves OVER 10.5 Rebounds + Assists (+104, DraftKings)
DRAFTKINGSAccording to CourtIQ, Reaves is averaging 5.4 rebounds and 7.5 assists per 36 minutes this season with LeBron James off of the floor. In 9 games with Luka Doncic active and James unavailable, Reaves has cleared this number 7 times.
Tonight, he gets to face an Indiana defense that ranks near the league average in rebounds per game allowed to guards since the All-Star break. The Pacers have allowed the 9th-most assists to guards in that span. At plus money, there is value on the over as long as we get a competitive game script.
Amen Thompson UNDER 17.5 Points (-110, BetMGM)
BETMGMWe don’t have clarity related to Houston’s injury report as of this writing, but unless we see one of the starters ruled out, this number is simply too high for Thompson in this matchup. Thompson attempts the majority of his shots around the rim, an area that Portland has defended well since the All-Star break.
Bettors who prefer more certainty should wait for confirmation of whether Houston’s other stars will play, but this isn’t a great matchup for Thompson regardless.
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