NBA Player Props for Monday, 12/29: Best Bets & Predictions Today
What kind of performances can we expect from Immanuel Quickley, Stephen Curry, and Jalen Smith? Follow along as our NBA betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NBA prop bets for Monday, December 29th. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more NBA plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Monday’s NBA slate features 11 games, highlighted by an NBC doubleheader – beginning with the Cavaliers against the Spurs at 8:00 PM ET and followed by the Mavericks against the Trail Blazers at 10:30 PM ET.
A busy night around the Association also means a busy night on the NBA injury report to start the new week. Jalen Johnson, RJ Barrett, and Kon Knueppel are among the bigger names who have already been ruled out. De’Aaron Fox and Alperen Sengun are each questionable as of this writing.
As always, be sure to use tools like CourtIQ and our NBA starting lineups page to evaluate how injuries impact usage and to search for inefficiencies in the player prop and DFS markets.
Below, you can find 3 of my favorite picks for Monday, December 29th!
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Best NBA Player Props for Monday, December 29th
Here are my top player prop bets for today, with tip-off scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on Monday, December 29th:
- Immanuel Quickley Over/Under 3.5 Rebounds
- Stephen Curry Over/Under 4.5 3-Pointers Made
- Jalen Smith Over/Under 5.5 Rebounds
Immanuel Quickley OVER 3.5 Rebounds (-120, DraftKings)
In each of Toronto’s last 4 games with RJ Barrett and Jakob Poeltl unavailable, Quickley has posted 4+ rebounds and 7+ rebound chances. Quickley has played 29+ minutes in all 4 of those games, including 32+ minutes in 3 of those games. According to CourtIQ, Quickley is averaging 3.7 rebounds per 32 minutes in December with both Barrett and Poeltl off of the floor.
Since Franz Wagner last played, Orlando has allowed the 8th-most rebounds per game to guards. In a plus matchup, Quickley should have a good chance to grab 4+ boards with Toronto once again shorthanded.
Stephen Curry UNDER 4.5 3-Pointers Made (-135, BetMGM)
The Nets quietly have the best defensive rating of any team in the NBA during the month of December. During that time, they have allowed a league-low 29.9 3-point attempts per game and held opponents to the 4th-lowest success rate on such attempts.
Curry has cleared this number in only 10 of 23 games this season, including only 4 of 12 road games. The 37-year-old Curry also played 41 minutes yesterday in an overtime loss to the Raptors, so it’s more than plausible that he could have his minutes reduced tonight.
On the back end of the team’s first two back-to-back sets of the season, he played only 27 minutes on October 24th and 26 minutes on October 28th. He played only 34 minutes in a hyper-competitive game against the Spurs on November 12th, which was also the back end of a back-to-back. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him closer to 30 minutes tonight.
Jalen Smith OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-150, BetMGM)
According to CourtIQ, Smith is averaging 5.9 rebounds per 17 minutes this season with Zach Collins off of the floor. In Smith’s last 10 games with Collins inactive, he’s played fewer than 17 minutes in only 2 games, but he’s played 20+ minutes in 3 games.
Minnesota has allowed the 2nd-most rebounds per game to the center position across their last 8 games. During that span, they have allowed 17+ rebound chances to Nikola Jokic, Ivica Zubac, Jaren Jackson Jr., Jock Landale, Mark Williams, Myles Turner, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Karl-Anthony Towns.
Smith should have a good chance to cash this wager if he plays 17+ minutes. And if he sees 20+ minutes, the math clearly favors the over.
Image Credit: Imagn