NBA Player Props Today: Best Bets & Predictions for Saturday (5/18)


What kind of performances can we expect on Saturday from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic? Follow along as our NBA betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NBA prop bets for today — Saturday, May 18, 2024. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more NBA player props, at ScoresandOdds.

On Saturday night, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks will play Game 6 of their Western Conference Semifinals series at 8:00 p.m. ET on ABC. Entering play, Luka Doncic and the Mavericks hold a 3-2 series lead with an opportunity to clinch a spot in the NBA’s version of the Final Four with a win at home this evening.

If looking to target the player prop market today, we have three player prop leans worth considering for Saturday, May 18!

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NBA Player Props Today – Saturday, May 18, 2024

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over/Under 30.5 Points
Luka Doncic Over/Under 9.5 Assists
Luka Doncic Over/Under 2.5 Three-Pointers Made

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over/Under 30.5 Points

In 5 games against Dallas in the Western Conference Semifinals, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has yet to score fewer than 29 points. Tonight, with his team’s season on the line, it’s likely we see Gilgeous-Alexander play at least 40 minutes.

Gilgeous-Alexander has played 40+ minutes 8 times this season, scoring at least 30 points in 6 of those games and at least 31 points in 5 of those games. Since the beginning of last season, he’s played more than 40 minutes in 11 games, scoring at least 30 points all but once and at least 31 points all but twice.

The math strongly favors the over here.

Luka Doncic Over/Under 9.5 Assists

Luka Doncic has managed 10 assists and 11 assists across his last 2 games, but he’s averaged only 15.5 potential assists in that span. During the regular season, Doncic averaged 9.8 assists on 16.9 potential assists.

Overall, the Thunder have done a good job slowing down their opponent to begin this postseason, ranking 2nd in defensive rating among 16 playoff teams, allowing only 102.5 points per 100 possessions. They have the best defensive rating of any team remaining in the postseason.

Doncic could have a difficult time reaching double-digit assists in Game 6.

Luka Doncic Over/Under 2.5 Three-Pointers Made

If we know one thing for certain going into tonight’s pivotal Game 6 between the Thunder and Mavericks, it’s that Luka Doncic is going to shoot a fair number of 3-pointers. In 5 games to begin this series, he’s attempted at least 8 shots from beyond the arc 4 times.

During the first round of the playoffs, Doncic was even more aggressive from the perimeter, averaging 11.2 such attempts in 6 games against the Clippers. Tonight, with an opportunity to punch his ticket to the Western Conference Finals, expect Doncic to be aggressive looking for his shot. If he’s reasonably efficient, bettors will have a great chance to cash this wager.

Check out more DFS sites with Fantasy basketball pick’em like Betr Picks.

NBA Playoffs 2024 Results – Wager Type

Points: 21-23-2
Rebounds: 7-6
Assists: 14-5-1
Points + Rebounds: 0-1
Three-Pointers Made: 0-1

Combined Playoff Record: 42-36-1 (53.8%)

Image Credit: Getty Images

About the Author

Nick Galaida (nickgalaida)

A failed high school pitcher, Nick Galaida discovered that he has a higher aptitude for analyzing and writing about sports than he does playing them. To his friends, he is better known as “The Commish.” When he’s not organizing a fantasy league, placing a bet, or writing an article, he’s probably nose-deep in a book—further illustrating the point that his niche in this world is as a nerd rather than an athlete. Follow Nick on Twitter – @CommishFilmRoom