NBA Predictions & Picks For Today — Wednesday, March 10, 2021
RotoGrinders expert Dan Gaspar, also known as MrTuttle05 in the DFS lobby, makes predictions and picks, from both a sports betting and NBA DFS perspective, for today’s two-game NBA slate featuring the Washington Wizards vs. Memphis Grizzlies and the San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks.
The NBA returns to action on Wednesday night with a small two-game slate featuring Washington at Memphis and San Antonio at Dallas. Thanks to the long break, we don’t currently have any notable injuries to monitor – Tyrell Terry is the only player listed Questionable on the injury report and he’s played just a total of 56 minutes this season.
Prior to the break, San Antonio had a bunch of players dealing with the health and safety protocols but Devin Vassell is the only player listed OUT for Wednesday’s game. That means we should expect to see Derrick White and Rudy Gay back in some capacity.
NBA Predictions For Today
NBA DFS Tips
Two-game slates are almost entirely about game theory in large-field tournaments. Ownership is bound to be heavily concentrated with limited options, which opens up potential leverage opportunities. This is especially true on a site like FanDuel that limits what you can do by forcing a more rigid roster construction – you HAVE to roster two players at the PG, SG, SF, and PF positions and one player at the C position. Furthermore, unlike DraftKings, players are limited to a single position. For example, while you can only roster DeMar DeRozan at the SG position on FanDuel, you can play him at the SF, PF, or F position on DraftKings.
With that in mind, playing the leverage angle is easier to do on FanDuel on small slates because ownership is more concentrated than on DraftKings. Due to limited options, Center is the position on FanDuel we typically see the highest concentration of ownership at and is the position you can get the most leverage at if you fade the chalk. On tonight’s slate, I expect Jonas Valanciunas to be the highest owned Center option by a wide margin. While JoVal is easily the top play at the position, I think there is plenty of merit in either completely fading him or at least going underweight on him in large-field tournaments, as only ~30% of the field will have lineups on FanDuel without him in it.
Center options do get ugly after JoVal with Jakob Poeltl and Robin Lopez being the only other two players projected to see 20+ minutes of court time. Of the two, I actually prefer taking shots with Lopez in hopes that his discounted price tag opens up a lineup construction that Valanciunas owners can’t access (i.e. use the savings at C to pay up for 3+ studs at other positions). With this strategy, Valanciunas can still outscore Lopez but may not find himself in the optimal lineup because the studs at the other positions score significantly higher or the value at the other positions flop.
While you can’t take the exact same approach on DraftKings, there are still a couple leverage opportunities I like. First, take some shots on San Antonio players working their way back into shape, specifically Keldon Johnson. Johnson is unlikely to garner much ownership but could pay off his price tag in a big way if he sees his minutes jump into the high-20’s, low-30’s like he was getting earlier in the season. Second, take a more balanced approach when constructing your lineups. Most lineups will jam in 2-3 players priced $9,000+, which means lineups centered around one stud could go under-owned.
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NBA Betting Pick
Morant Under 8.5 assists (-105 at BetMGM Sportsbook) – Betting any unders against one of the worst defenses in the league is an uncomfortable feeling but this line looks a tad inflated, possibly due to the 10 assists Morant dropped on the Wizards just before the All-Star Break. Potentially overlooked is the fact that Kyle Anderson didn’t play in that game, and Anderson has surprisingly had a big impact on Morant’s offensive production this season. In 298.2 minutes with Anderson off the court this season, Morant has seen a massive jump in usage (+5.6%) and is averaging 1.54 more assists per 36 minutes. Anderson played in the Grizzlies final game before the ASB and is expected to suit up on Wednesday night. It’s worth noting that our current projections at RotoGrinders also think there’s some value in this line, as they currently have Morant projected for 7.96 assists.
[Bet Under 8.5 Morant Assists at BetMGM]
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