NBA PrizePicks Today: Predictions for Butler, Tillman, and Poole
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NBA PrizePicks Predictions Today
Below are a few of our favorite PrizePicks plays for the November 3rd slate.
Xavier Tillman More Than 26.5 Fantasy Points
The Grizzlies are down bad at the moment. They’ve been crushed by injuries over the past couple of weeks, while Ja Morant won’t be back from his suspension until just before Christmas. Heading into Friday night’s game in Portland, the 0-5 Grizz are the last winless team left in the league.
With Steven Adams done for the year and Santi Aldama out injured, Xavier Tillman has been thrust into a massive role as the lone true center left on the roster. The former Michigan State standout is averaging nearly 27 minutes per game in his first year as a full-time starter, though his playing time has declined over the past few games. In related news, Memphis has suffered back-to-back blowout defeats in Dallas and Utah.
Tillman has been solid while he’s been out there, contributing a steady 1.05 FP/min to this point. That’s despite a true shooting percentage of just over 44%, which is down considerably from the 62% clip he posted in 2022-23. Shot selection has been an issue – he’s taking more threes than ever – though his small-sample percentages were harmed considerably by his woeful 3-for-14 effort against the Mavs a couple of games ago.
Memphis is actually favored tonight in Portland (-3), so here’s hoping they can actually keep the game close enough for the starters to see regular minutes. Our projections have Tillman at 29 expected minutes in a favorable on-paper matchup against a Blazers squad that figures to be among the worst in the league defensively all year.
If his minutes get back to normal, I’m confident in Tillman’s ability to total more than 26.5 FPTs in this one.
Jimmy Butler More Than 20 Points
Jimmy Butler absolutely carried a ragtag version of the Heat to a surprising Finals appearance over the summer, but the team is off to a slow start to the new campaign. Miami has slumped to 1-4 heading into their home clash with the Wizards on Friday night. This matchup could be just what the doctor ordered, as the 1-3 Wizards rank 26th in the league in D-rating.
Butler is off to a slow start of his own, particularly offensively. His current average of 16.5 points per game would be his lowest mark since 2013-14 if it keeps up, though that seems highly doubtful. Jimmy’s usage (23%) is down a tick from where it was last season (26%), while his true shooting percentage (46%) is down significantly from the 64% mark he had a season ago.
Really, Jimmy just needs to make more shots. If that sounds simple, that’s because it is. I like his chances of converting more of those field goal attempts in an exploitable matchup against a Washington team that has less than zero interest in playing defense. You’re not going to believe this, but I don’t think adding Jordan Poole and playing him heavy minutes is going to do wonders for the Wiz on that end of the floor.
Butler is 34 now, but he’s averaged at least 19.9 points in each of his first four full seasons with the Heat. Even with all of the mileage on those legs, it’s a little unreasonable to expect him to suddenly crater offensively. This is a solid bounce-back spot.
Jordan Poole More Than 18.5 Points
Speaking of Jordan Poole, he’ll try to lead his new squad to an upset win over the reigning Eastern Conference champs tonight. The Wizards have developed a nasty habit for getting blown out of late, and they’re healthy 8.5-point underdogs at Miami in this one. Given the way the Heat have been playing, though, I feel reasonably confident that Washington can keep the score respectable enough.
We can rag on Poole’s defense all we want, but that’s not what he’s out there for. The Wizards brought him in because he’s a certified bucket-getter. Efficiency hasn’t been a strong suit for him through his first few games, but not for lack of trying.
Poole is leading the team in usage (32.5%), and he’s another guy whose production is down as a result of errant shooting. Poole’s shooting 38.5% from the field and 24.1% from 3-point country with a true shooting percentage of just 43.2%. Poole has been respectable enough from long range over the course of his career (33.7%), and we’ve seen him post big numbers in the past even while sharing the floor with several future Hall-of-Famers.
Kyle Kuzma is a nice player and all, but let’s just say Poole’s new supporting cast isn’t quite as star-studded as the one he left in San Francisco. I wouldn’t be too concerned about the fact that Poole only logged 20 minutes in the last game, as the Wizards’ starters all saw limited playing time in a lopsided loss to the Hawks.
Per our PrizePicks tool, Poole has a better than 70% shot at finishing with more than 18.5 points tonight in Miami.