NBA Situational Player Projections | DFS & Betting Props Analysis (3/21/22)
This article will take a look at some of the most impactful injuries of the day and how a player’s availability, or lack thereof, influences things from both a DFS NBA and online sports betting perspective. You can take a look at today’s injuries on RotoGrinders in the Situation Room.
NBA DFS Player Projections & Props Impact
Joel Embiid
Joel Embiid has played both legs in most of Philadelphia’s back-to-back sets this season but Monday still sets up as a prime spot to rest the big man as the regular season winds to a close. Philadelphia has yet to release an official injury report for Monday but it seems likely Embiid will be listed as Questionable (GTD) so let’s take a closer look at how his absence would affect the DFS landscape and props market.
James Harden has already stated he intends to play on Monday and would jump into a massive role offensively if Embiid sits. Using RotoGrinders’ CourtIQ tool we can see that Harden has posted a 25.5% usage rate in just over 400 minutes with the 76ers this season. That number jumps dramatically to 37.8% in 122.4 minutes with Embiid off the court. While he hasn’t seen a huge increase in rebounds or assists with Embiid off the court, Harden is averaging +13.61 more points per 36 minutes, good for 34.71 points per 36 minutes. If Embiid is inactive, Harden instantly becomes Monday’s top high-priced DFS option and it’s also worth monitoring his points props to see if books open with too low of a line.
Also important for fantasy purposes is figuring out how the 76ers would fill in Embiid’s vacated ~34 minutes if he doesn’t play. Immediate instinct is to plug the newly acquired DeAndre Jordan into Philadelphia’s starting lineup – and I do agree he’s the likeliest candidate to start – but I would be cautious about expecting to get too much out of him. Jordan would still rate as a solid DFS value play with a high-teens, low-20’s minutes projection but would be a strong tournament fade with limited upside at high expected ownership.
Kyle Kuzma
Surprisingly there aren’t a ton of impactful Questionable tags on Monday’s 9-game slate. LeBron James, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Karl-Anthony Towns are listed as Q but seem more likely to play than not. That leaves us with Kyle Kuzma who missed Saturday’s game with a knee injury and is listed as Q for Monday’s game against the Rockets.
Kuzma’s absence on Saturday gives us a good idea of how Washington’s minutes will likely be distributed if he misses again on Monday. Rui Hachimura took Kuzma’s place in the starting lineup and played 16.5 first-half minutes. Hachimura finished the game with just 25 minutes of court time as the Wizards rode a hot bench to finish the game but I would expect him to end closer to the 30-minute mark on Monday, catapulting him into one of the better value plays on the slate.
Kristaps Porzingis figures to see the biggest rates boosts with Kuzma out. Porzinigs has only played 73.9 minutes for the Wiz without Kuzma on the court, resulting in moderate increases in his usage (1.8%) and assist rates (6.3%). While those numbers aren’t eye-popping, I think we’re likely dealing with a small sample size issue combined with an already extremely high 31% usage rate for Porzingis. If Kuzma is unable to suit up on Monday, I would expect Porzingis to pop as the best mid-tier play in DFS against a terrible Houston Rockets team.
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