NBA Situational Player Projections | DFS & Betting Props Analysis (3/23/22)
This article will take a look at some of the most impactful injuries of the day and how a player’s availability, or lack thereof, influences things from both a daily fantasy NBA and legal online sports betting perspective. You can take a look at today’s injuries on RotoGrinders in the Situation Room.
NBA DFS Player Projections & Props Impact
Tyrese Haliburton
Wednesday’s 11-game slate is littered with what I like to call “fake Questionable tags”. Essentially players that are listed as Q but are likely to play. This is also known as the “LeBron” as he’s played through a constant Q tag the entire season. Other players with “fake Q tags” on Wednesday are Jimmy Butler (this one is borderline but played through the Q tag – same injury – in Miami’s last game), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (has only rested his ankle on a back-to-back), and Karl-Anthony Towns (played 37 minutes on Monday with the same forearm injury). After we sift through the four most impactful Q tags according to RotoGrinders’ Situation Room, we are left with Tyrese Haliburton who is listed as Questionable with a lower back injury. Let’s take a closer look at what Haliburton’s absence would mean for the Pacers.
Malcolm Brogdon is the first player that comes to mind as someone who would benefit from Haliburton’s absence. Brogdon missed Indiana’s last game due to rest but isn’t listed on Wednesday’s injury report and is fully expected to suit up. Brogdon has only logged 231 minutes of court time this season without Tyrese Haliburton, Domantas Sabonis, or Caris LeVert and he has absolutely dominated in those minutes, averaging 50.07 DK points and 48.52 FD points per 36 minutes. Brogdon remains cheap on FanDuel ($7,200) and DraftKings ($7,800) and could go overlooked on a large 11-game slate, even if Haliburton is ruled out early.
Books have yet to release props for the Pacers but it’s worth keeping an eye out on ScoresAndOdds throughout the day for Brogdon’s props. RotoGrinders currently projects Brogdon for 34 minutes, 21.92 points, 4.51 rebounds, and 5.02 assists. If Haliburton is declared out, I would be interested in betting Brogdon’s points over up to 24.5 points as well as alternate lines up to 30 points.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors are one of the more interesting teams to project on Wednesday’s slate. We will eventually get an official injury report from them but we know for certain Steph Curry remains OUT and it seems likely that at the very least Klay Thompson will sit after playing on Tuesday. Otter Porter Jr. and Draymond Green could also sit the second leg of a back-to-back which would leave the Warriors without a handful of key players.
What makes the situation even more interesting is that even if all the aforementioned players do sit, Golden State isn’t exactly “thin” – they still have a lot of players to soak up minutes. Projecting how those minutes will be distributed is a difficult task but one that could provide DFS players with an advantage if done so accurately. Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins would be the two players we could confidently project for heavy minutes but everything after is a bit of a toss up. Moses Moody has been dealing with a shoulder injury but has stepped into big minutes in similar situations this season and would make for a viable DFS value option. Same could be said for Damion Lee. Jonathan Kuminga is another player that has picked up more minutes when main rotation pieces have missed this season and has flashed a solid ceiling with his ability to fill up a stat sheet.
If all of Klay, Otto P, and Dray join Steph on the sidelines, my “super deep probably shouldn’t play on an 11-game slate sleeper” is Chris Chiozza. While the Warriors have been liberal with sitting players this season, Curry has only missed eight games and we don’t have much of a sample on how Steve Kerr will handle his rotations without a true PG available. To reiterate, Chiozza is likely an unnecessary risk on an 11-game slate with plenty of viable options, while guys like Moody, Lee, and Kuminga come with higher floors and more solidified roles.
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