NBA Situational Player Projections | DFS & Betting Props Analysis (3/9/22)
This article will take a look at some of the most impactful injuries of the day and how a player’s availability, or lack thereof, influences things from both an NBA DFS and sports betting perspective. You can take a look at today’s injuries on RotoGrinders in the Situation Room.
Notable NBA Injuries – DFS Player Projections & Props Impact
Jimmy Butler
Unsurprisingly there are a ton of players listed as Questionable on Wednesday’s massive 12-game injury report but Jimmy Butler easily has the weakest reason listed for his Q tag – ‘Injury/Illness – sinus; Congestion’. Regardless of how weak the reasoning is, sportsbooks seem to be taking it seriously as lines on props for Kyle Lowry and Bam Adebayo have slowly risen throughout the morning. According to ScoresAndOdds, most books opened Adebayo’s Points, Rebounds, & Assists prop at 32.5 and FanDuel Sportsbook is the only book with it currently live at 33.5. Similarly, Lowry’s Points, Rebounds, and Assists prop opened at 21.5 and now is only available on FanDuel Sportsbook at 24.5. So are we already too late for the party? I don’t think so.
A vast majority of the time in this article I find myself eyeing up overs in the hope that a player sits but this is a little bit of a different situation as the line is already on the move. Here I find myself hoping props for Bam and Lowry continue to rise so that I can hit the unders, even if Butler ends up getting ruled out. Obviously, an active Butler would go a long way in aiding early under bettors but I also think sportsbooks could be underrating the return of Victor Oladipo.
Oladipo played in his first game of the season on Monday night and logged 15 minutes of action, a 26% usage rate, and a 20.1% assist rate. While I don’t expect Oladipo’s minutes to rise significantly, him soaking up 15 minutes of court time is significantly different than the alternatives (Caleb Martin, Max Strus, etc) we have seen fill that role when Butler has been out this season.
There are basically two ways you can play this – lock-in unders on Lowry and Bam props that have already risen and hope that Jimmy is active, or wait for Jimmy to get ruled out and hit the unders when the lines top out.
Jalen Suggs
I didn’t think I would be writing about the Orlando Magic on back-to-back days but a lot of teams with the higher-profile Questionable tags (Lakers – LeBron, Phoenix – Booker, Pelicans – Ingram, Timberwolves – Edwards/Russell) unsurprisingly don’t have props available. Jalen Suggs has now missed consecutive games with an ankle injury and is officially listed as Questionable for Wednesday’s game against the Pelicans.
Yesterday I talked about how Suggs’ absence would mean a likely starting role for R.J. Hampton – and how he would enter the DFS conversation as a value option – and how Cole Anthony has seen modest usage and assist rates boost this season when not sharing the court with Suggs. Both of those things remain true today with the added benefit that Markelle Fultz won’t play in the second game of a back-to-back which should solidify playing time for both Hampton and Anthony as long as the game stays close.
Yesterday’s bet of Cole Anthony Over 20.5 Points and Rebounds flopped as he scored just 11 points on 4-of-14 from the field in 28 minutes of action. However, in addition to shooting horribly, Anthony missed about four minutes of court time due to injury as he got hit in the head from a Mo Bamba flying elbow just 1.5 minutes into the second half. It’s possible that I am just being stubborn and making up excuses but I am going back to the Cole Anthony well today and taking Over 22.5 Points & Assists. At worst, Suggs suits up and this ends up being a neutral line. At best, Suggs sits, and I am sipping on a cocktail bought with Sklansky Bucks whether the bet is a winner or not.
Player Image Credit: Imagn