NBA Starting 5 (GPP): Friday, January 5th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, as analyzed by one of our daily fantasy sports experts.
Friday, January 5th
Happy Friday, Grinders! Welcome to the Friday edition of the NBA Starting 5 series! Fridays offer us solid slate sizes and large DFS tournaments, so it is a great day to analyze the NBA from a GPP perspective.
Let’s take a look at five of my favorite tournament plays of the day. For reference, I will be using DraftKings pricing throughout the article.
Point Guard: Goran Dragic, Miami Heat – $6,600
Dragic has been playing through some minor injuries for much of the season, but he seems as healthy now as he has all year. Dion Waiters has already been ruled out again tonight for the Heat, and CourtIQ tells us that Dragic sees about a 3% boost in usage with both Waiters and Justise Winslow off the floor. His usage rate of just over 30% leads the team in those circumstances. With Waiters out, the minutes have also been more secure, as Tyler Johnson sees more time at shooting guard as opposed to snagging Dragic’s point guard minutes.
The Miami point guard is also coming off a pair of fantastic games in a row. He has taken 41 shots over the last two contests, has played at least 37 minutes in both of them, and has piled up 49 points, nine rebounds, and 21 assists in those games. Now is the time to buy before that buy-low window closes, and the price tag is still very much affordable for his current role. He also draws a favorable matchup against a Knicks team that does not have much in the way of point guard defense.
Shooting Guard: Tyreke Evans, Memphis Grizzlies – $8,000
Memphis is also going to be a little short-handed tonight, as Chandler Parsons will again be sidelined, while Andrew Harrison has already been ruled out. Evans has quietly been thriving with a new coach in place, posting a 31.4% usage rate and logging 44.3 DraftKings points per 36 minutes over the last four weeks. His minutes have been on the rise, and the team is allowing him to run the show. While I don’t often make a habit out of targeting shooting guards against the Wizards, I will make an exception for Evans. His shooting guard eligibility on DraftKings is a nice bonus, too, as that position isn’t the easiest to fill on this slate. There’s 50+ fantasy point potential here, and Evans often gets overlooked a bit at his current prices. That’s music to my ears in GPP formats.
Small Forward: Kyle Anderson, San Antonio Spurs – $4,900
Kawhi Leonard announced that he was officially back the other night with a monster game against the Knicks, and he played a season-high 31 minutes in that contest. That would naturally make us gravitate toward steering away from Kyle Anderson, as his minutes and usage will definitely be hampered a bit by Leonard’s return. However, starting shooting guard Danny Green and primary reserve Rudy Gay are both out right now, so there should be minutes to go around for Anderson at the shooting guard, small forward, and potentially even power forward position if the Spurs elect to go small — which is very much a possibility against the Suns.
This is a great matchup for the Spurs against an up-tempo, defensively challenged Phoenix squad. In addition, Anderson played 28 minutes against the Knicks on Tuesday even when Leonard played 30+. As I mentioned, he will get minutes at multiple positions. The Spurs could also win this game comfortably, where they might look to limit Leonard and/or LaMarcus Aldridge a little bit. Anderson will get his minutes, his price is very cheap, and the matchup is fantastic. I’m a willing buyer.
Power Forward: Kyle Kuzma, Los Angeles Lakers – $7,200
Kuzma has clearly solidified his spot as the primary option in the Los Angeles frontcourt, so I would not get dissuaded from him as a result of Brook Lopez returning to the lineup. The decreased minutes in the last game were almost entirely a function of the Lakers getting blown out in that game, though we can never be 100% certain with Luke Walton calling the shots. Assuming he is a sensible man, Kuzma has earned his 30+ minutes on a nightly basis. The return of Lopez plus the elevated price point plus the poor showing in the last game will combine to make Kuzma lower owned than he should be tonight, especially on DraftKings at that $7,200 price. He will be much more popular on FanDuel, where he can be considered as a cash game option. I love the upside, and the high price isn’t enough to scare me away from him in GPP formats on DraftKings.
Center: Al Horford, Boston Celtics – $7,400
Horford is generally not the sexiest tournament option, but I really like him in DFS tonight. Karl-Anthony Towns is not a strong defensive center, and Horford put up lines of 20/9/8 and 20/6/5 with four total blocks in the two head-to-head meetings between these teams last year. While Horford tends to not play huge minutes these days, often capping in the low 30’s, that should be enough to post a solid fantasy line. He also played 36 minutes in one of last year’s meetings. There are a lot of centers on the board tonight, and Horford will most likely come in at around 5% ownership. People give Towns far too much overall credit. His offensive game is fantastic, but the defense is not. Horford is one of my favorite GPP plays on the board this evening.
Good luck tonight, everyone!