NBA Starting 5: Thursday, January 19th
Hey kids, first of all I would like to give my condolences to everyone out there who decided to play 100% of Kyle O’Quinn yesterday. Playing him yesterday was the DFS equivalent of getting a swift kick in the D. He will be playing again tonight, and there’s a decent chance I’m probably going to play him again, but just know that there’s a decent chance we all will be fooled once more. In any case, it’s time to move on and forget the past, so let’s break down this five-game slate.
Today, I’m going to go through my top plays at each position regardless of price. We are going to use some of RG’s wonderful tools to look and find some great spots at just a glance. Mostly what we are going to be looking at is Defense v. Position and Advanced Player Stats. Fade these plays at your own risk.
Point Guard: Eric Bledsoe, Phoenix Suns, $7,700
Holy fudge, I’m excited about playing Eric Bledsoe tonight. He has been on an absolute tear as of late and DK still seems to refuse to up his price to $8,000. In his last nine games, Bledsoe has failed to reach 37 DK points just once and is averaging over 44 FPPG during that span. Right now, Bledsoe should be priced like Flemmings Steak House more than Outback Steakhouse (if any of you insult Bloomin Onions, you will be banned). He is going up against Kyrie Irving tonight, who owns an atrocious DRPM of -1.76, which ranks 67 out of all PGs. Eric Bledsoe also owns the second highest usage of all PGs on tonight’s slate, and the game owns the second highest over/under on the entire slate.
Everything at first glance looks to point to this being a perfect scenario. There is one big glaring problem that is staring us straight in the face, and that’s the spread. As of right now the spread is pegged at 12 in Cleveland’s favor. This game could easily turn into a blowout, but the Suns play at such a high pace and Bledsoe is playing at such a high level as of late that he shouldn’t have a problem hitting value at his price, even if this game turns into a blowout. If Knight sits tonight, or if any of the Cavs’ big three sit, it just adds to Bledsoe’s value and essentially makes him a complete and total lock. Play this dude tonight, even at his high ownership, and end it with a few extra bucks in your pocket so you can take your wife out to a nice dinner at the local Olive Garden and really splurge on that unlimited soup, salad, and breadsticks.
Shooting Guard: Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards, $7,000
This is the Knicks’ fourth game in five days right now and pretty much every single person on their team has got to be more exhausted than me having a climb up two flights of stairs (for those of you who don’t know, I am not in good shape). Consider they may go this game without Porzingis and Noah, and you have a beautiful situation for the entire Wizards team.
One of the places you can really attack the Knicks is at the SG position where they rank an abysmal 29th in DvP. Beal put up a little bit of a dud last night, but tonight is not the strongest slate at the SG position and Beal has one of the largest upsides of all SGs on the slate. He owns a 26% usage rate and can drop a 50 burger in nearly any game. If you are playing Bledsoe in your lineup, then Booker is also in a great spot, but if you have the extra $800 and you’re not going to game stack the Suns game, then I suggest Beal over Booker.
Small Forward: Harrison Barnes, Dallas Mavericks, $6,000
Let’s go through the list of SFs at the top on tonight’s slate. LeBron James gets a good matchup against a high-paced Suns team, but he’s more expensive than dental work without insurance and there’s a good chance of a blowout. Kawhi is going against a hobbled Denver team at home, so chances are that game will be over quicker than Trump’s’ presidency. Finally, we have Anthony who has a high usage without Zingis, but he’s old enough to be my grandpa and I just can’t trust him in his fourth game in five days.
This leaves us with the always-safe and reasonably-priced Barnes. Barnes owns only the sixth highest usage on the slate among SFs and doesn’t have the safest matchup in terms of DvP, but he is currently 10th in the league in minutes per game and has had over 30 DK points in seven of his last nine games, which at this price would be good enough for 5x. Again, I am saying this is the safe play on tonight’s slate and would probably go a little riskier in GPPs, but for cash tonight, Barnes is going to be my lock at the SF position.
Power Forward: Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves, $9,900
Tonight’s PF position is similar to a salad bar to me. NOTHING LOOKS GOOD, but just like vegetables, I am forced to have at least one tonight, so I am rostering Towns in there.
Towns is averaging over 50 points in his last five games and has failed to reach over 49 DK points just once in that span. He has the upside that only a few other guys on this slate can offer and no one else at the PF position really even has that close to. He draws DeAndre Jordan defense that, although he may end up with 100 to 200 rebounds, is nothing spectacular. Even if Jordan was a premier defender, it probably wouldn’t matter for Towns as he has shredded the great Spurs D and Steven Adams as of late. If you need the money, or if you just like to live dangerously, then you can start any one of the Knicks’ replacement PFs, but for me, I’m riding the hot streak and avoiding another night filled with tears because of the Knicks.
Center: Hassan Whiteside, Miami Heat, $8,700
Look, the answer here is fairly simple. Jokic is bar-none the best player at the center position tonight. He’s still a little underpriced, but he’s going to be very heavily owned and there is a chance he doesn’t play tonight, but we may not get that information in time.
Because of this, I’m throwing Whiteside in my lineup until further notice. Whiteside is going up against Dallas, who owns by far the worst rebounding differential in the NBA. It’s not even close; they’re at a -6.1 rebounding differential and the next closest team is -4.9. Add to this that Bogut is out for tonight’s game and you can expect Whiteside to just go absolutely ham on the boards tonight. Yes, Dallas does play at the second slowest pace in the NBA, but they also allow the highest FG% to opposing teams in the NBA, meaning that Whiteside can also add a large number of points tonight. I’m still higher on Jokic tonight, but unless we get news that he is playing tonight and that his ankle is not bothering him, I am probably going to go with Whiteside.