NBA Starting 5: Thursday, March 16th
You kids know what starts today? That’s right, it’s March Madness time. It’s that time of year where everyone acts like they care about college basketball for about five to six hours until they punch a hole through the wall because the team they had winning it all just got upset in the first round. In the DFS world we really don’t care too much about that, so let’s just drown our inevitable sorrows in NBA.
We have an interesting little six-game slate today and there are going to be some really obvious chalky options thatI don’t really think you should fade. So, I’m going to try to go a little off the board today in most my picks. I’ll let you know what the obvious ones are, and if you’re angry with me not giving analysis on them, then you probably shouldn’t be playing the slate tonight because they need no analysis.
Today, I’m going to go through my top plays at each position regardless of price. We are going to use some of RG’s wonderful tools to look and find some great spots at just a glance. Mostly what we are going to be looking at is Defense v. Position and Advanced Player Stats Fade these plays at your own risk.
Point Guard: Dennis Schroder, Atlanta Hawks, $6,400
Schroder is a good play over on FD today where he is $7,400, but he is a great play over on DK at this price tag. The obvious play today here is Westbrook because there is more value out there than there are open parking spots at a movie theater showing a morning matinee of a new Adam Sandler movie (what happened to you Adam?). I don’t expect Schroder to be highly owned today and he has been crushing value as of late. In his last four games, he has been averaging close to 7x on a nightly basis. You’d think that DK would catch on with pricing, but I guess they can’t respect someone who looks like they are hiding a full lemon in part of their hair. His price has actually gone down $300 over the last four games. It may be because that little number two next to the DvP for tonight for Memphis, but as you’ve heard me say over and over again: MIKE CONLEY IS NOT GOOD AT DEFENSE.
Conley currently ranks 53rd at the PG position in terms of DRPM which is horrid. If all this weren’t enough to get you all antsy in your pantsy, with both Ilyasova and Millsap on the court, Schroder averages 1.6 FPPM (giving credit to Seige here, which is my least favorite thing on earth). Add to this that he owns an over 30% usage rate this month and you’ve got yourself a great pivot off of Westbrook and Jamal Murray.
Shooting Guard: Will Barton, Denver Nuggets, $5,300
Sorry, but I’m throwing in a chalk guy here. I would put Norman Powell in here, but who knows if Carroll is going to play tonight. If he doesn’t, Powell is a nice pivot off the chalk, but Barton is a great play tonight. If you didn’t already know, then playing in Denver on the second end of a back-to-back is the equivalent of playing with one eye open. The Clippers are resting both Jordan and Griffin tonight and this game stands at Denver being four-point favorites with a 220 over/under. Denver has more people sitting today than I have clean pairs of underwear — #laundryday. With all the people sitting today, Barton is going to get the one thing we always need him to in order for him to crush value, and that’s minutes. According to RG’s CourtIQ, Barton gets a 2.7% usage and .1 FPPM bump with these guys off the court and he’s going to get all the minutes he can handle tonight.
Yes, his ownership will be high, but the main reasons for fading a guy at high ownership is if there are other great high-upside options (there aren’t), or if he has a decent chance at busting (with those minutes he shouldn’t), or if he’s expensive (he isn’t). Outside of Klay there aren’t good options at the SG position tonight, so just stick with Barton and eat the ownership.
Small Forward: Gordon Hayward, Utah Jazz, $6,900
At his current price tag, Hayward is averaging (outside of that OKC game) 6x over his last six games. Hood should be out of the game tonight, and with Hood and Favors out of the lineup Hayward gets a 3% usage boost and is averaging 1.15 FPPM over the course of the season. He’s facing the 18th ranked DvP vs the SF position in the Cavs in a moderate paced matchup. His price has come down $1,000 over the last week and we should see around 35 minutes of him, provided the game stays close (which is a small concern).
If he gets 35 minutes, we can expect 40 to 50 DK points, which is enough to crush value. This wouldn’t get me incredibly jazzed on a normal night considering his high expected ownership, but the options at SF tonight are so slim they may as well be the after photo for every single “get skinny quick” scam you see when you’re watching reruns of the Chapelle Show on Comedy Central at 2 AM. I like Melo tonight too, but LeBron has a very tough matchup tonight, and your options outside of them are near non-existent. Play Hayward, or if you have extra balls and money to spare, you can pay up for Melo, but don’t try to get cute here.
Power Forward: Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks, $7,100
Look, I woke up this morning while it was still dark outside and before I could even look in the mirror for my normal morning self-loathing, I could see that Hernangomez and Speights were the right plays at the PF today. If you aren’t playing them tonight, I don’t want to know what you do at night because you clearly like to punish yourself. On the off chance that you are into that, I think Millsap is a decent pivot (or addition on DK) tonight. Outside of the last game against the Spurs (which I’m disregarding quicker than my doctor’s advice that I should stop eating Taco Bell on a weekly basis), Millsap has had less games under 37 DK points in the last nine than salads I’ve eaten this month.
Memphis is a tough matchup, but two games ago he put up 44 against them, and he is pretty much a lock for 40 in any game. Take the consistency and the great shot at around 6x to 7x if you’re going to fade the obvious guys at this position.
Center: Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets, $10,600
Look, Hernangomez, Lopez, and Vucevic are all great plays tonight and because of that they will all garner high ownership. With Westbrook being on this slate and with all the value to go around, Jokic’s ownership, unlike the majority of people in his state, is not going to be high. We’ve all seen what he can do when everyone’s healthy, but when all these players are off the floor, Jokic has some absurd numbers.
According to CourtIQ, Jokic averages 1.61 FPPM with everyone who’s injured tonight are off the floor. If Jokic is on the floor for over 30 minutes tonight, he has a chance to outscore Westbrook, and by fading Westbrook for all the other great PG plays and playing Jokic, you have a great shot and separating yourself from the field. Add in that Jordan is sitting and that Speights owns a DRPM close to zero and you have a real plus matchup for Jokic. I have no problem with playing any of the three guys I mentioned at the beginning of this paragraph, but I think that Jokic has the best upside of all of them. Do what you wish here, but I suggest a high amount of Jokic for tournaments tonight.