NBA Starting 5: Thursday, November 16th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research tools.
Thursday, November 16th
We have another small two-game Thursday slate, but the good news is that both games feature high totals, so we should be able to identify some solid plays. As always, finding the cheap guy who crushes value will be of paramount importance tonight, and as I always recommend, you should steer clear of cash games tonight. There’s just too much variance when lineups are mostly identical except for one or two players. So, as I typically do, I’m going to give my top potential value-crushing plays at each position. These won’t necessarily be high floor guys, but that’s ok because I’m always tournament-focused on two-game slates.
We’ll be looking at FanDuel pricing today. I won’t be focusing on any specific tool, rather I’ll be finding players in good spots that could really pay off if they have a good night.
Point Guard: Tyler Ulis, Phoenix Suns, $4,000
The point guard position is one where there aren’t many ways to go. Chris Paul will be in the lineup, but he’ll be limited, so he can’t be used. Stephen Curry and Kyrie Irving are both top plays that have extreme upside, but in terms of value, you’re really left with just one option. Kyrie Irving return has mostly taken Terry Rozier out of the discussion, but with Tyler Ulis and Mike James reversing roles in Phoenix, we at least have the opportunity to roster a very cheap starting point guard for just $4000. This game has a huge total, and while the Suns are double digit underdogs, Ulis is likely going to play the same 27 to 28 minutes he normally does. He’s flashed some upside before, and I think he’s worth a shot in some tournament lineups if you’re looking to spend elsewhere.
Shooting Guard: Nick Young, Golden State Warriors, $3,300
Young is as risky as it gets, but honestly, he’s the only value play at the shooting guard position that’s worth mentioning. Young, sadly has a floor of about two, especially if this one stays close. I don’t think he’ll sniff 20 minutes in a close game unless he gets hot, but you’re still relying on a mostly scoring-dependent player. The good news is that he’s been racking up a few steals lately, and he’s also just $3300. If the expensive options bust, a 10 from him at $3300 may end up being a part of an optimal lineup.
Small Forward: PJ Tucker, Houston Rockets, $4,000
Tucker is seeing a consistent 20+ minutes off the bench for Houston, and while he’s another player with a fairly low floor, we’ve seen him finish above the 20 fantasy point threshold several times in his backup role. A matchup against the fast-paced, defensively-challenged Suns certainly doesn’t hurt his prospects, and he may see some extra run if this game gets out of hand and the starters are given the fourth quarter off. Be aware of his downside, but take some shots on him in your tournament lineups.
Power Forward: Marquese Chriss, Phoenix Suns, $4,500
Chriss should draw another start in what is projected to be a fast-paced, high-scoring matchup with the Rockets. Houston is a heavy favorite, but i think young guys like Chriss get their minutes anyway. The good news here is that Chriss’s minutes are trending up, and it certainly doesn’t hurt that Tyson Chandler will be out tonight. Chriss may soak up a couple of extra minutes with the Suns lacking a bit of front court depth. Either way, he has plenty of upside relative to his price as we’ve seen him crack the 30 fantasy point threshold on multiple occasions. Of course, there’s a good chance he busts as well, but you’ll need exposure to him in the event that he has a strong performance.
Center: Alex Len, Phoenix Suns, $4,800
Last time Tyson Chandler missed a game, Len drew the start and played 39 minutes. He may not see that much court time tonight, but with Chandler out, he’s likely to play over 30 as long as he stays out of foul trouble. Len is a very solid per minute producer, and given his role tonight, he’s a near must play for me at the center position, especially on a two-game slate where finding value is extremely difficult. My plan would be to go overweight on him and veer away from the crowd at other positions.