NBA Starting 5: Tuesday, February 28th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’re going to take a look at an extremely important aspect of daily fantasy basketball – pace. It’s crucial that we understand which teams are going to be paced up by their opponent, and which players lose value playing against a team that slows things down. We’re going to use the Team Stats tool over the past four weeks to take a look at the pace at which teams have currently been playing. This should help us identify players on FanDuel that we can reasonably expect to outperform their season averages.
As always, the tool serves as a starting point. We will be considering other factors when selecting our players. Also, be aware that I used the filter option to remove other statistics so only the pace is displayed in the below screenshots.
Point Guard: Kemba Walker, Charlotte Hornets, $8,200
Walker draws an exciting road matchup against the Lakers in a game that Vegas has assigned a 215 total with Charlotte listed as slight favorites. This tells me we’re looking at a close, high-scoring game. Pace stats back this up as the Lakers have been playing at the sixth-fastest pace while Charlotte is not too far behind at 13th. Given the likely close game and the fact that the Hornets will be playing one of the more up tempo teams in the league, we can have the expectation that Walker will outperform his season averages more often than not in this spot. When we also consider that the Lakers are a favorable matchup in general, Walker makes for a terrific option at the point guard position.
Shooting Guard: Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards, $7,000
Not surprisingly, tonight’s matchup between the Warriors and Wizards features the highest total of the evening. With the Warriors listed as just six point favorites, the expectation is that the Wizards will keep this one close enough that starters should play their full complement of minutes. These two teams are ranked seventh and eighth in pace over the past four weeks, making this one of the best games to target on the slate. Beal has been very good lately, and given head coach Scott Brooks rides his starters more than most head coaches, Beal should see a heavy workload and surpass the 35 fantasy point mark. The players involved in this game are expensive, but you’re going to want to get as much exposure to them as you can.
Small Forward: Gordon Hayward, Utah Jazz, $7,900
The normally slow Jazz get a nice pace up game against an Oklahoma City team that ranks fifth in pace over the past four weeks. Hayward is typically going to get you around 30 to 40 fantasy points, and I believe he’s likely to finish at the high end, or above, that range tonight given the matchup. This one should stay close, and we should see Jazz players getting a few more opportunities than they would against other, slower-paced teams. Kevin Durant and Jimmy Butler are strong options as well, but on a per dollar basis, I like Hayward more than those two.
Power Forward: Nikola Mirotic, Chicago Bulls, $4,400
With Taj Gibson gone, minutes have opened up at the power forward position, and Mirotic has taken advantage. He’s still difficult to trust because he can have a horrible game at any time, but he’s extremely cheap and draws a favorable matchup against Denver. The Nuggets are currently playing at the ninth-fastest pace in the league while Chicago is an acceptable 15th. This is a pace up situation for the Bulls, and given Mirotic has seen around 30 minutes the last two games, he’s a terrific value play tonight.
Center: Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz, $7,900
Again, it’s always nice to target Jazz players when they’re facing one the fastest-paced teams in the league. Like Hayward, Gobert should see some extra fantasy point-producing opportunities given the extreme discrepancy in pace between these two teams. While the Thunder all get a downgrade, the Jazz see a significant upgrade and should be expected to outperform. Plus, given Gobert isn’t too reliant on scoring for his production, we don’t need to worry much about a tough matchup against Steven Adams. He should stick rack up plenty of rebounds and blocked shots while chipping in 10 or more points.