NBA Starting 5: Tuesday, January 17th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’re going to take a look at the Defense vs Position tool over the past four weeks to help identify today’s top plays on FanDuel. We have a short five game slate tonight, but there are a couple of teams in action that have consistently provided profitable daily fantasy situations. Let’s take a look at the tool to confirm our initial impressions of tonight’s games.
As always, the tool we’re focusing on is just one piece of the puzzle, and we’ll have to look deeper to determine if we truly want to be using a particular player this evening.
Point Guard: Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors, $9,000
The three teams offering the most favorable matchups for opposing point guards are all in action tonight, and all three of Kyle Lowry, D’Angelo Russell, and Deron Williams make for solid options. Given the inconsistency and unreliability of both Russell and Williams, Lowry checks in as the clear top play at the point guard position. Along with DeMar DeRozan, Lowry is the co-centerpiece of Toronto’s offense, and we can expect him to be highly productive each and every night. The Nets have been roasted by opposing point guards all season, and there’s no reason to think we won’t see more of the same tonight. With FanDuel requiring two point guards, there’s not much justification for leaving Lowry out of your cash game lineups. I would look to pair him with Russell as I trust him more than Williams.
Shooting Guard: Will Barton, Denver Nuggets, $4,800
The Lakers actually check in as the eighth-best team against opposing shooting guards over the past four weeks, so you might be wondering why Barton is showing up here. It’s just not enough to target teams that are giving up the most points to a certain position. We have to go deeper than that. Yes, the Nets are awful defensively, and yes DeMar DeRozan will likely have a good game, but $9400 might be a tough pill to swallow tonight. Regardless, we need two players at the position, and with Barton expected to both draw the start and see extended minutes with Gary Harris out, this is a situation where opportunity trumps matchup. Barton is too cheap at $4800 with the expectation he’ll see 30+ minutes tonight, and he’s a top value play in all game formats.
Small Forward: DeMarre Carroll, Toronto Raptors, $4,600
Not surprisingly, the Nets have allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards over the past four weeks. This team is a fantasy goldmine given their pace and complete inability to play defense. Carroll’s minutes have ramped up recently, and given the Nets will likely keep this one competitive on their home floor, Carroll should be in line for 30+ minutes in an extremely favorable matchup. He should be able to contribute enough to eclipse the 20 fantasy point mark, and he has upside well over 30 if things happen to go his way. He’s a terrific value option at the small forward position, and he’s viable in both cash games and tournaments.
Power Forward: Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets, $8,500
Power forward is loaded with solid options tonight, but Jokic stands head and shoulders above the rest. The Nuggets have been a much improved team since he’s become the focal point of the offense, and it’s not surprising to see him post big numbers night in and night out. He draws an extremely favorable matchup against a Lakers team that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards and fourth-most to centers. Jokic starts at center, so I’m more concerned with Los Angeles’s numbers against fives, but even if Jokic happens to see time at the four, his value won’t suffer. It’s a terrific matchup, and he’s the clear top play at the power forward position in what should be a close, high-scoring matchup between two of the faster-paced teams in the league.
Center: Jonas Valanciunas, Toronto Raptors, $6,000
Center is a rather uninspiring position tonight. I’m not too high on any of the options. When in doubt, take players against the Nets. In case you haven’t noticed, the Nets are downright atrocious defensively, and any player that sees minutes and has a pulse can have a big game against them. I wish Valanciunas played more minutes, but even if he sees 25 to 28, he should be able to put together a 30 fantasy point performance against this team. It certainly doesn’t hurt that Brook Lopez is one of the worst rebounding big men in the league. In a point-per-dollar sense, Valanciunas is my favorite play, and his salary is such that I should be able to get who I want at other positions.