NBA Starting 5: Tuesday, January 24th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
We have six games on tonight’s slate with plenty of attractive matchups. Today, we’re going to take a look at the Defense v Position tool over the past four weeks as a starting point to help identify some of today’s top plays.
Once we determine the best matchups, we’ll dig a little deeper to make sure the player we’re interested in is actually worthy of a lineup spot tonight.
Point Guard: Jerian Grant, Chicago Bulls, $3,600
Chicago head coach Fred Hoiberg is changing things up again, inserting Grant into the starting lineup tonight against the Magic. It’s a great opportunity for Grant as he will take on an Orlando team that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing point guards over the past four weeks. Grant has been a bit hit or miss as a starter this season, but it’s hard to ignore him as a value option tonight. Both Michael Carter-Williams and Rajon Rondo have had plenty of opportunities to run with the starting point guard job, and both have been unimpressive. My assumption is that Grant will get plenty of run tonight as the Bulls give him a chance to take over as a member of the starting five.
I’m always interested in cheap starting point guards, and when they draw a terrific matchup, that’s just icing on the cake.
Shooting Guard: Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards, $6,700
Beal is often frustrating to roster, but he draws a great matchup against a Celtics team that has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards. They’ll also be without top defender Avery Bradley, which won’t do them any favors. This game has the highest total on the board with a one point spread, meaning we’re likely to see a very close, high-scoring game. We’ve seen Wizards head coach Scott Brooks give his starters major minutes in close games this season, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Beal play nearly 40 tonight. He’s my favorite play at the shooting guard position, and I highly recommend him in both cash games and tournaments.
Small Forward: Otto Porter, Washington Wizards, $6,300
Most of the teams giving up big games to small forwards aren’t in action tonight. You’ll probably notice the Magic toward the top of the list, and while they’re certainly a good matchup for Jimmy Butler, I have a hard time spending nearly $10,000 for him. I prefer Porter against a Boston team that will be missing Avery Bradley tonight. Porter is certainly capable of dropping the occasional dud, but he usually does enough across the board to justify his price tag. He’s a solid rebounder, and will likely chip in enough points and steals to finish with around 30 fantasy points.
Power Forward: David Lee, San Antonio Spurs, $5,100
Lee has filled in nicely for the injured Pau Gasol, and despite coming off the bench last game, he still managed 27 fantasy points over 25 minutes. I would expect to see him back in the starting lineup tonight, but even if he’s not, he’ll see plenty of minutes off the bench against a Raptors team that has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards over the past four weeks. His price has come up, but he’s still very fairly priced at $5100. There’s not much to like at power forward tonight, so Lee remains a top play given his high floor and ceiling relative to his price.
Center: Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves, $10,500
Towns is the top play on tonight’s slate, and sometimes you just have to realize that the player, his role, and his expected production trump matchup. The Suns rank 15th against the center position over the past four weeks, which isn’t great, but isn’t terrible either. However, Towns has been eclipsing 50 fantasy points on a regular basis, and I see no reason he can’t put together another huge performance in what’s expected to be a very close, high-scoring game against the up tempo Suns. Sure, you can use Robin Lopez as a value option against a poor defensive Magic squad, but he doesn’t have much upside and can lay an egg in any matchup given his lack off involvement on the offensive end of the floor.
There is nothing about a matchup against Phoenix that makes me think Towns can’t have a big game, and given the lack of elite options at other positions, I recommend locking him in as the top overall play on tonight’s slate.