NBA Starting 5: Tuesday, January 3rd
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’re going to take a look at Defense vs Position over the past four weeks to help identify today’s top plays on FanDuel. We have a solid eight game slate with no game total under 200 and close spreads so this is shaping up to be a fun night in terms of daily fantasy. Let’s take a look at the numbers and uncover tonight’s top plays at each position.
Point Guard: Shelvin Mack, Utah Jazz, $4,200
George Hill just can’t catch a break. After missing 13 games with a toe injury, he suffered a concussion in his second game back. He missed last night’s game, and he seems likely to miss tonight’s game as well. We should get an update well before tip off, and if Hill is indeed out, Mack makes a lot of sense as a value play. With Dante Exum also out, he won’t have much competition for minutes, and he should see well over 30 again. Further, as we can see from the DvP chart, Boston has been the fourth worst team in the league against opposing point guards over the past four weeks. If Mack starts, I think he finishes with over 20 fantasy points, and given the rash of injuries to the pool of point guards today, I’m likely going to lock him into cash game lineups.
Shooting Guard: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Detroit Pistons, $5,700
Shooting guard is tough today as the best player at the position, DeMar DeRozan is likely to see a lot of Kawhi Leonard, which puts him off the radar for me. We’re left with a bunch of guys that are difficult to rely on for consistent production on a nightly basis. Caldwell-Pope draws the best matchup of the group, facing a Pacers team that ranks fifth-worst against opposing shooting guards over the past four weeks. Further, they are the worst team on tonight’s slate at defending the position. I don’t love KCP’s price, but I can say that about just about any other shooting guard, so I’m going to trust the numbers, and the bump in pace for the Pistons, tonight and slot KCP into one of my shooting guard slots.
Small Forward: Wilson Chandler, Denver Nuggets, $5,600
I didn’t include the full table for small forward as most of the teams at the top are not in action tonight. The only team that ranks worse than Boston and Sacramento is the Lakers, but if you want to take a small forward from Memphis, you’re on your own. This position was a toss-up between Chandler and Hayward, and I definitely do like Hayward tonight, especially if George Hill is out. I would use both he and Chander, or possibly Kawhi Leonard as my two cash game small forwards.
Sacramento ranks 18th against opposing small forwards over the past four weeks while Chandler has been logging heavy minutes. In what projects to be a very close, very high-scoring matchup between these two teams, I expect Chandler to again see a heavy workload while easily surpassing value. Given his price, his floor, and his upside relative to cost, he’s an easy cash game play for me.
Power Forward: LaMarcus Aldridge, San Antonio Spurs, $7,900
Aldridge has been on fire lately, eclipsing 43 fantasy points in four of his past five games. He draws a very favorable matchup against a Raptors team that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards over the past four weeks. Toronto doesn’t really have anyone that can matchup against him well, and in what projects to be a high-scoring game, especially considering the Spurs are involved, I expect another solid outing from Aldridge. With no elite power forward options available today, it makes a lot of sense to me to lock in the best player in a great matchup.
It’s worth mentioning that if Marc Gasol (questionable) sits out tonight, JaMychal Green and Zach Randolph both make for solid options as well.
Center: Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers, $7,200
Embiid is going to play 28 or 29 minutes in what should be a close home game against the Timberwolves. Minnesota has not defended opposing centers well this season, and they currently rank fifth-worst against the position over the past four weeks. The Sixers are also weak against centers, but I’ll take the $2100 discount that Embiid offers over Towns. Plus, Embiid offers more upside relative to price, so he’s my preferred play. Embiid’s usage is through the roof, and I’m expecting him to finish around or over 40 fantasy points tonight. His ability to rack up stats on both ends of the court give him an extremely high floor, and he’s a terrific play in both cash games and tournaments tonight.