NBA Starting 5: Tuesday, March 14th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
We have a small five game slate of games with no shortage of elite players to choose from. Today, I’m going to to use the Vegas Odds and Lines tool to quickly assess which games offer the best situations for fantasy production, and which to avoid based on game total and spread. As always, we can’t simply use one tool to identify our top plays. The Vegas lines act as a guide and a time-saver in that factors such as defensive rating and pace have already been analyzed for you. We’ll start with the Vegas lines and apply what we know about individual teams and players to find today’s top plays.
Editor’s Note: Hazardous weather could affect multiple games this evening. Be sure to check DFS Alerts for any updates!
Point Guard: Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder, $13,400
When we’re spending $13,400 on one player, we want to make sure we’re targeting that player in a very favorable situation. Things don’t get much better than a road matchup against Brooklyn, and Vegas agrees, assigning this game a 224.5 total, the highest of the day. Further, Oklahoma City is listed as only a six point favorite, meaning Vegas isn’t expecting a blowout. With this game likely to stay close enough to force Westbrook into his normal complement of minutes, he’s in terrific position to post another monster stat line against one of the most fantasy-friendly opponents in the league. The Nets play at a fast pace and struggle considerably on the defensive end of the floor, giving Westbrook well over 70 fantasy point upside tonight.
Shooting Guard: Victor Oladipo, Oklahoma City Thunder, $5,900
The same Vegas line information that we applied to Westbrook’s analysis applies to Oladipo as well. Oklahoma City is clearly in the best situation tonight on the road against an extremely fantasy-friendly Nets team. What’s also very encouraging is that Oladipo just played 38 minutes last game against Utah, meaning we shouldn’t expect him to be on any post-injury minutes restriction going forward. He should log well over 30 minutes once again, and I believe he’ll finish at or above 30 fantasy points tonight. On a per-dollar basis, he’s my top play at the shooting guard position.
Small Forward: Paul George, Indiana Pacers, $8,100
While Vegas lines offer a very solid foundation and start for our daily research, it’s important to keep things in perspective. The small forward position is fairly week, and with LeBron James likely involved in a comfortable home win over Detroit, he may not be worth the hefty price tag tonight. While tonight’s game between Indiana and New York has been assigned the lowest total of the day, the Pacers are three point favorites and are projected to score a healthy 107 points. George is the clear focal point of the offense, and with Indiana trying to stay in the playoff hunt, I expect him to play heavy minutes in what Vegas believes will be a close game between these two teams. The lack of reliable options at the small forward position combined with the favorable game situation make George my top small forward play tonight.
Power Forward: Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks, $6,600
Only the Sixers are slated to score less points than the Knicks tonight, but this is another example of how we can’t simply rely on Vegas lines to determine the top plays. Porzingis is grossly underpriced at just $6600, and after logging two straight 40+ fantasy point performances, it’s safe to say he’s playing at a high level once again. As we discussed above, tonight’s matchup between the Knicks and Pacers has a close spread, meaning this one should go down to the wire. Expect Porzingis to log heavy minutes and easily reach or surpass value at his depressed price tag.
Center: Brook Lopez, Brooklyn Nets, $7,000
The center position is rather thin tonight. DeMarcus Cousins doesn’t have the same value in New Orleans as he had in Sacramento, Andre Drummond isn’t on my radar with the Pistons being heavy underdogs in Cleveland, and Jusuf Nurkic is a sketchy play at the Pelicans in a game where he could easily get into foul trouble against both Anthony Davis and Cousins. With the cheaper options looking rather unappealing, Lopez is left as the only guy I’m seriously considering. A matchup against Steven Adams is never a great thing, but despite being listed as six point underdogs, the Nets are still projected to score the fifth-most points on tonight’s slate. I think Brooklyn will keep things close enough, which means around 30 minutes for the number one option for the Nets offense. Both teams really push the pace, so this one is likely to turn into a shootout that should see Lopez finish well above 30 fantasy points.