NBA Starting 5: Tuesday, March 28th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
If you haven’t noticed by now, RotoGrinders’ Ceiling and Consistency tool is one of my favorite places to begin my research for the day. Maximizing return on your investment is extremely important in daily fantasy basketball, because unlike higher variance sports like baseball, football, and hockey, it’s very difficult to have a profitable night if one of your players completely flops. Baseball is starting soon, and if you haven’t played before, you’ll see that zeroes are extremely common while you’ll often have one player carry your entire team if he has a huge night. In basketball, especially in cash games, we’re looking for guys who consistently get the job done night in and night out.
We have a very solid eight game slate tonight with some very high game totals. Let’s start our research with the Ceiling and Consistency tool then narrow our choices down by looking at some other factors.
Point Guard: Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers, $9,400
Over the past four weeks, no point guard has reached the 4x mark more often than Lillard. Further, he’s achieved 5× 33% of the time, which is terrific for a player priced at $9,400. He draws an extremely favorable matchup against a Nuggets team that has been torched by opposing point guards all season. While this game certainly doesn’t have a 233 total like Warriors/Rockets, 223 is still very high, and although Stephen Curry is certainly capable of having a huge game against Houston tonight, I think Lillard is the better play. Both have extremely high floors and ceilings, but we’ve been seeing 50+ fantasy point performances much more often from Lillard than Curry.
Shooting Guard: Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors, $7,000
Thompson has a couple of duds in his game log, but with the Warriors and Rockets likely to combine for a zillion points tonight, I don’t think we need to worry about him disappearing. Purely looking at the chart, Tim Hardaway Jr. looks like a terrific play tonight, and he certainly is given Kent Bazemore is out and the Hawks are facing the fantasy goldmine known as the Phoenix Suns. I see no reason not to slot Thompson and Hardaway in at shooting guard in cash games tonight.
While Thompson appears a bit lower when we’re sorting by 4x, it’s important to understand the situation. This game has a massive total and an extremely tight spread. Plus, Thompson’s upside is tremendous. If he gets hot, he can drop 40 real points and easily eclipse 50 fantasy points when you throw in whatever peripherals he manages. In cash games, he’s a no-brainer, and I think you need tournament exposure as well given his ceiling is so high.
Small Forward: T.J. Warren, Phoenix Suns, $6,400
Warren is an easy cash game play at the small forward position. Brandon Ingram might have been in this spot, but he’s listed as doubtful tonight, so make sure you don’t have him in any lineups. Warren is playing nearly 40 minutes per night, and a quick look at the chart shows you all you need to know. Aside from Ingram, only Danilo Gallinari is reaching the 4x mark more often than Warren, but we’re talking about less than one percentage point. Warren’s upside easily exceeds Gallinari’s, and I believe that, overall, his floor is higher and his dud potential is much lower. For me, Warren is a lock in cash games, and is another guy you’ll want tournament exposure to because of his ability to hit the 6x or even 7x mark.
Power Forward: Ersan Ilyasova, Atlanta Hawks, $4,800
Ilyasova is an easy value play tonight as Paul Millsap continues to be sidelined by a knee issue. Ilyasova has played well over 30 minutes in each of Atlanta’s past two games, and it’s important to realize that this four week view of his production includes time before Millsap was hurt and Ilyasova’s playing time and production were more inconsistent. Now that he’s playing significant minutes and offering a more consistent level of production, his $4,800 price tag makes him an easy choice, especially given we’d like to be targeting as many of the high-priced studs in attractive games as we can. Ilyasova can crush value at this price, and I think it’s extremely unlikely he finishes below 20 fantasy points tonight against a Suns team that bleeds fantasy points to every position.
Center: Jusuf Nurkic, Portland Trail Blazers, $6,700
Nurkic is too easy tonight. While I do like Clint Capela and Alan Williams, both guys just don’t see enough minutes for me to use them over Nurkic. If Nurkic were more expensive or weren’t playing tonight, I would likely side with one of those two guys, but Nurkic simply offers too much upside for me to fade. He’s finished with no less than 30 fantasy points in each of his last seven contests, which puts him between the 4x and 5x mark on a very consistent basis. Plus, we’re looking at a game with a high total and close spread, so as long as he stays out of foul trouble, he could post a huge stat line. Let’s also not forget that Denver is the team that misused him, gave him extremely inconsistent playing time, and eventually let him rot on the bench. He has to be excited for the chance to stick it to his former coach and team. I’m expecting a big performance tonight, and I see no reason to look elsewhere in cash games.