NBA Starting 5: Tuesday, November 8th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
As I did last Tuesday, I’m going to use the Ceiling and Consistency tool to identify strong cash game plays on DraftKings. This is not the end all be all for me in terms of research, but as someone who primarily plays cash games, I want players who can be relied upon to get the job done night in and night out. As always, it’s important to look at matchup and understand a player’s role before selecting them, but this tool is a great way to get a quick look at the top players who are worth your salary cap dollar investment.
Point Guard: J.J. Barea, Dallas Mavericks, $6,000
Barea is about as chalk as it gets today, and for very good reason. He’s been posting solid lines off the bench, and a move to the starting lineup and a minutes boost is only going to help him. Deron Williams is doubtful tonight, so there’s essentially no chance he plays. Dirk Nowitzki is also out, meaning much of the scoring responsibility will fall on Barea’s shoulders. If we look at the chart above, we can see that Barea has been very consistent so far this season. He’s reached 5× 66.67% of the time, which is tied for best on the slate given Ty Lawson will be ceding starting point guard responsibilities to the returning Darren Collison. His 4x would likely be 100% if he started every time, so we have to realize that these numbers would be even better if he were always in the same spot he’s in tonight. In a likely close game with the Lakers, I’m firing up Barea confidently in all of my cash game lineups tonight.
Shooting Guard: Lou Williams, Los Angeles Lakers, $4,700
The nice thing about targeting Lakers this season is that we can predict what’s going to happen. Head coach Luke Walton, unlike his predecessor Byron Scott, has an established rotation and does things that make sense. Williams is seeing a consistent 25 to 27 minutes off the bench, and when he’s on the court, he’s going to be shooting and handling the ball. Over the course of the season, he’s tied for the highest frequency of both 4x and 5x value for all of tonight’s active shooting guards. Will Barton would be on top, but he’s out tonight. What’s also important is that Williams is hitting 6x over half the time, which is easily the highest mark on tonight’s slate. I think he’s a terrific play at just $4700, and I’ll likely have him in my cash game lineups tonight.
It’s also worth mentioning that Nick Young, while he doesn’t appear on this chart, is a solid play tonight as well. He played 36 minutes last time while Jordan Clarkson was the only other Laker to play 30. He’s made significant improvements on the defensive end, and Luke Walton can’t stop raving about him. For just $4000, he’s a fantastic value play tonight.
Small Forward: LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers, $9,900
Small forward looks a bit better than it actually is. I think a lot of players will gravitate toward T.J. Warren, and while he’s certainly been very good lately, his recent numbers have been buoyed by some overtime games. At $6900, I’m just not feeling it, and I’m not convinced he’s going to be this consistent night in and night out. James, however, as consistent as it gets, and the matchup simply doesn’t matter. He can’t be defended, and he stuffs the stat sheet every night. You certainly don’t have to worry about a dud or a lineup-crushing performance. With value at other positions, I’m perfectly happy sticking LeBron in my small forward spot.
Power Forward: Trevor Booker, Brooklyn Nets, $4,900
Booker’s been getting it done for Brooklyn despite not seeing as many minutes as we’d like. In the absence of a good rebounding center, Booker has been very active on the boards. He contributes enough across the board to frequently pay off his cheap price tag, and I think he’s a safe cash game option tonight. We should see a close game between the Nets and Timberwolves tonight, and I think you can pencil Booker in for around 25 fantasy points with some possible upside. I’ll take that in my cash game lineups every time.
Center: Kevin Love, Cleveland Cavaliers, $7,300
Multi-position eligibility means we can use Love at center, and I may very well do that tonight. However, it’s worth mentioning that although he doesn’t appear at the top of this chart, Karl-Anthony Towns is a fantastic option tonight. The one thing you don’t really need to worry about is a dud performance from one of the Cavs big three. Most of the offense comes from Irving, James, and Love, and given they’re arguably still the best team in the league, they’re not going to have games where they just don’t show up. As we can see from the chart, Love has been very consistent. LeBron James is the only usable power forward that’s hit 4× 100% of the time, and we’re using him at small forward. In a game where I expect the Hawks to stay mostly competitive, Love should see a full set of minutes and finish with at least 35 fantasy points. He’s a terrific cash game option with over 6x upside if things run through him a bit more than usual.