NBA Starting 5: Wednesday, January 4th
Tonight we have a seven-game slate. There are three teams (Miami, Memphis, and Sacramento) on the second half of a back-to-back, so as usual I will try my best to avoid players on those teams. In addition, it seems most of the NBA has been sick with the flu, just like me, so keep on top of the news for updates on health and to see if any additional value opens up.
Today, I’m going to discuss how I can quickly glance at the DvP Cheat Sheet Tool to identify good matchups to attack for my starting five. Basically, I’m looking for high USG% players in good matchups to build my core starting five.
Point Guard: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks, $10,400
There are plenty of studs we can pay up for tonight, but I think Giannis offers the best value of the group as he offers a similar ceiling to the top at a slightly lower price. The Bucks are just 2.5-point road favorites to the Knicks in a game with a substantial 212-point total. He draws a stellar matchup, as the Knicks rank 25th in total fantasy points allowed, 24th in opponent fast break points per game, and 22nd in opponent points in paint per game. Also, Knicks coach Jeff Hornacek said yesterday that Kristaps Porzingis is doubtful to play. I see no plausible way the Knicks will be able to slow The Greek Freak down tonight, as they simply have nobody that can matchup on defense. To envision them throwing Carmelo/Rose or Lee on him is laughable. I believe Giannis and his 27.96% Usage will have his first huge Madison Square Garden performance tonight sending Spike Lee home angry yet again.
Shooting Guard: Victor Oladipo, Oklahoma City Thunder, $5,500
Oladipo has played well in both games back from injury and it’s time to take advantage of his low price of $5,500 that is sure to rise soon. He draws a good matchup on the road with Charlotte, currently ranked 20th in total fantasy points allowed and 18th in DVP vs. the shooting guard position, in what should be a very competitive game with a 208-point total. He has 20.48% Usage, just slightly below Nicolas Batum, and has always matched up well against him. We can expect most of the fantasy points to come from the guards in this game, making Oladipo an affordable way to get a piece of this game and a nice pivot off of Westbrook.
Small Forward: Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks, $7,100
On paper Carmelo draws the best matchup at the position tonight, as the Bucks rank 28th in DVP vs. the small forward position. He comes into tonight with 28.5% Usage, only second to Lebron at the position tonight and sees an almost 5% increase in usage with Porzingis off the floor. This game is projected to be competitive with the Knicks only 2.5-point underdogs, so if they keep it close you can bet Carmelo has a big night.
Power Forward: Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, $7,500
I want a piece of this game due to the monster 223-point total – the highest of the night. As usual, there is extreme blowout risk with the Warriors being 16-point home favorites against the Blazers who should be without Damian Lillard, but teams have been hanging with Golden State, as we saw with Denver the other night. The Blazers rank 30th (dead last) in DVP vs. the power forward position and Portland ranks in the bottom half of the league in both opponent blocks and steals allowed per game. Draymond went for 40.5 DK-points in their blowout meeting last game on 2/17 while only scoring three real points! He offers a safe floor based on peripherals alone tonight, but if he can contribute more on offense or if the Blazers keep it close, could be in store for a monster night.
Center: Dwight Howard, Atlanta Hawks, $7,300
This is one of my favorite games to target tonight, as the game sneakily has the third-highest projected pace on the slate. Howard gets to take on his former team back in Orlando tonight where the Hawks are currently favored by 2.5-points. He gets a great matchup, as Orlando ranks 27th in DVP vs. the center position and 24th in the league in overall rebounding. Dwight has been sneakily having an outstanding season. He has 19.07% Usage, is 4th in league in rebounds per game, and 2nd in the league in offensive rebounds. He should be able to dominate just as he did in their last meeting when he put up 20-points with 16 rebounds on 12/13.