NBA Starting 5: Wednesday, March 30th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders with a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’ll take a closer look at the Defense vs. Position cheat sheet to identify some good matchups.
DvP is always going to be one of the first places I go when I start researching which players I want in my lineups on a particular evening. It’s certainly not the only tool I use, and you shouldn’t simply plug players in because the numbers say they have a great matchup. You have to take all things into consideration, but DvP is a great place to start to narrow the player pool down to players you’ll want to take a look at.
Point Guard – John Wall, Washington Wizards
Despite their loss to the Warriors lastnight, the Wizards are still clinging to faint hopes in the Eastern Conference playoff race. They sit three games behind the #8 seed with eight games to go and will need every win they can get to have a chance. What this means for us is that you will likely see a heavy workload for the starting unit. This is a fantastic game to target from a fantasy perspective, as both the Wizards and the Kings love to run and gun. The game has a two point spread and a projected total of 221 points. It’s hard to see Wall struggling against a Kings defense that ranks 24th in the league against point guards this season.
Shooting Guard – Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks
The sizzling play from the young guns of the Bucks has cooled off as their schedule has gotten more difficult. There was a stretch in early to mid-March where daily players were rostering Middleton and Antetokounmpo on a daily basis despite rapidly rising price tags. That interest has waned as the production has dropped off, and that is a common example of the recency bias that we see in DFS. A matchup against the defensively-challenged Suns should be the recipe for a breakout. Phoenix ranks dead last in the league against the shooting guard position, making Middleton a fine target for upside this evening.
Small Forward – P.J. Tucker, Phoenix Suns
On the other side of this game, we can give the enigmatic P.J. Tucker a look tonight. His defense will be needed against the athletic Giannis Antetokounmpo, and we can likely count on him to approach 35-40 minutes if this game stays close. Milwaukee has not been very good against the small forward spot this season, which is surprising given the presence of Middleton and Antetokounmpo. This one is more than just the DvP though, as Tucker isn’t exactly a scorer. He will be on the court for his defense, and that gives him the opportunity to produce in this game.
Power Forward – Markieff Morris, Washington Wizards
I let this table go down a little farther than the others, so you can see the teams that are poor against the power forward spot. This might not be the best place to take the DvP route today, as eight of the ten worst teams against the position are among the twelve teams that are off today. If you want to play the DvP game, give Markieff Morris a look. His calf did not appear to be bothering him lastnight, and he played 24 minutes in the loss to the Warriors. Also, as I wrote above, Washington is clinging to faint playoff hopes in the Eastern Conference. This is a must-win game against the team that is worst in the league at covering power forwards, so Morris is at least in the discussion as a cheap option at the power forward spot.
Center – Hassan Whiteside, Miami Heat
Even though he continues to come off the bench, Whiteside has been putting up big lines on a fairly regular basis. His minutes have not seen a drastic change even with the bench role, meaning there hasn’t been a dip in his fantasy value. The upside is obviously huge in a matchup against the defensively challenged Lakers, who rank 28th in the league against opposing centers this year. The only concern here is how close this game will be in the second half. Assuming he gets 30-35 minutes of court time, this could be a massive outing for Mr. Whiteside. He is obviously a great tournament target, and he is even in play for cash games tonight.