NBA Starting 5: Wednesday, March 8th
Tonight we have a monster 11-game slate to attack. We have only one team (Washington) on the second half of a back-to-back. There are also plenty of injury situations to monitor, so I envision another mad scramble before lineups lock and plenty of value to choose from.
Today, I’m going to continue to discuss how I can quickly glance at two of the Research Tools available to identify good situations for my starting five. First, I always browse the Salary Charts tool to see if I can identify some players that DraftKings has priced lower than FanDuel so I can take advantage of the better pricing — this is especially important with pricing becoming more dynamic on each site. I will then click the Advanced Player Stats tool and focus on their USG%. It’s also nice to glance the peripheral stat percentages available to see if I can expect peripheral points.
Point Guard: Isaiah Thomas, Boston Celtics, $8,800
Warning, I’m a Celtics fan and live in Boston, but do believe that this is a great spot for Thomas tonight. We get a $600 discount on DK tonight and he comes into tonight with a 35.3 True Usage % – the highest on the slate at the point guard position tonight. You can bet he will be ready to play after calling out his team and coach recently in the media as well as missing a free throw and committing a costly turnover to blow their last game against Phoenix. This game has a juicy 222-point total and I love targeting Thomas in pace up games. The matchup itself is decent, as the Warriors rank 15th in DVP vs. the point guard position. Over the last month of play Golden State has given up big games Russell Westbrook, Mike Conley, Jameer Nelson, Rajon Rondo, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Dennis Schroder was on pace for a career game the other night before he was benched for arguing. I’ve heard a lot of talk about Avery Bradley affecting Isaiah’s usage, but it’s only slightly and I actually think having another weapon helps free him up. I like the price, love the usage, and love the extra possessions and expect a really nice game tonight.
Shooting Guard: DeMar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors, $8,700
Tonight seems like a great bounce back spot for DDR, who burned many in his last game against the Bucks, who defend well against the backcourt and were able to really bother him. We get a huge $1,300 discount on DK and we all know that DeRozan is running the show now and has a 40.3 USG % with Kyle Lowry off the floor. New Orleans does a decent job at limiting production to the shooting guard position, but DeMar is actually running the offense like a point guard now, where New Orleans currently ranks 23rd in DVP vs. the point guard position. I don’t see Toronto having much success with the frontcourt against Boogie and AD and therefore see Toronto relying on the backcourt to score. That leaves DDR as the best and pretty much only option and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hit some threes tonight as New Orleans ranks 23rd in opponent threes made per game. In this game DeMar simply has to step up and I believe he will.
Small Forward: Andrew Wiggins, Minnesota Timberwolves, $7,500
We get a $400 discount on Wiggins tonight and I’m expecting very low ownership tonight in what should be a competitive game against the Clippers in a game with 211-point total. I love this matchup for Wiggins, as the Clippers currently rank 23rd in DVP vs. the small forward position. If you break it down even further, the Clippers rank near the bottom at allowing twos, free throws, rebounds, and assists to the position which should really match Wiggins’ ability to score from the midrange at will and get to the free throw line. I’m expecting Wiggins to dominate in this one, making him a really sneaky play tonight. Keep an eye out for news of Danilo Gallinari sitting tonight, which would immediately make both Wilson Chandler and Will Barton nice plays against Washington.
Power Forward: David Lee, San Antonio Spurs, $3,700
We got the news early today that both Kawhi and LMA will rest for the Spurs tonight making Lee one of the best values on the board. We get an $800 discount on DK which will definitely make him popular, but I cannot ignore his close to 6% increase in usage with both Kawhi and LMA off the floor and he’s average 1.5 fantasy points per minute in 26 minutes against Sacramento this year. I have him projected for 23 minutes at this point making him a great play tonight.
Center: Hassan Whiteside, Miami Heat, $7,700
It looks like there will be some decent value at the center position tonight, but I will try to beat it with upside. Whiteside is $800 cheaper on DK tonight and should be able to completely dominate the Charlotte frontcourt, as Charlotte currently ranks 22nd in DVP vs. the center position, has given up the fifth-most fantasy points to the position this season, and allow plenty of extra rebounds, blocks, and steals to opposing centers. Whiteside has been in good recent form while averaging over 42 DK points per game over his last six games. He also has extreme home/road splits where he averages close to 7 more DK points per game at home this season. He offers the potential to go toe-to-toe with any center on the slate at a bargain price of $7,700.