NBA Starting Five: Friday, March 18th

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The Starting Five series will provide Grinders with a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.

Today we’ll take a closer look at our Ceiling and Consistency Tool, specifically looking at tonight’s FanDuel salaries .

As the page header states, the Ceiling and Consistency tool shows you how often each player has hit their value based on that day’s salary. The percentage columns (%3x, %4x, etc) show the percentage of the time that particular player has hit that value multiplier. For example, if a player has a salary of $5,000, the %3x column will show the percentage of games in which he has scored at least 15 fantasy points ($5,000 divided by 1000, then multiplied by three).

Personally, I enjoy using the tool to help identify underpriced players. Many new DFS NBA players fall into the trap of using the same players on all or most sites they play on, regardless of price. Perhaps as much as any DFS sport, a player’s price is supremely important for the NBA, and the Ceiling and Consistency tool lets us easily visualize that, seeing how that player has done historically given his price.

Point Guard: Deron Williams, Dallas Mavericks

Okay, hear me out on this one. I haven’t rostered Williams much this year, but this is an example of where the numbers can lead us somewhere we otherwise might not consider. Just take a look at his season-long numbers:

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He’s basically hit 5x his salary tonight in half of games. His recent game log doesn’t show much potential, but he’s been at 27 or more FanDuel points in five of his last 10 games. I’ve typically avoided players against the Warriors, even with the pace bump because of their generally efficient defense and blowout potential. However, Dallas is a good enough team to keep it reasonably close, and they get the benefit of playing at home. That’s reflected in the spread of just 8.5 in favor of Golden State. There should be a few extra possessions in this one for Dallas, and with Williams’ high floor for rebounds and assists, he’s one of the safer plays of the night in this price range. I think he has a little more upside here than we’d normally assume, too.

Just keep in mind that this time of year injury news is absolutely paramount. Plenty of good teams will be starting to rest players for the playoffs and plenty of bad teams will be sitting players to “see what they have for the future” (a.k.a. tank for a chance at a better lottery pick). For example, if Rajon Rondo sits again, Darren Collison becomes a much better play than Williams with way more upside in the same price range. Be sure to keep checking the news up until lineups lock.

Shooting Guard: Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns

The Suns’ backcourt is a little more crowded now that Brandon Knight is back, but Booker is still getting strong minutes (32+ in each of his last 10 games), and we can’t deny that he’s been productive with that time. Here’s how the last three weeks have looked at shooting guard:

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He’s averaged 0.79 FanDuel points per minute over the last ten, and tonight he gets a very good matchup with the Lakers.

Booker’s a little more inconsistent than I’d like, but that’s to be expected from a rookie and especially against a team like Utah in his last game where he only managed 16.1 FD points.

Obviously tonight’s matchup will be a good deal easier, and as long as he sees his usual 30+ minutes, I think we’ll see another 30+ FD-point night, with upside well into the mid-forties if he really gets it going.

Small Forward: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder

KD against the Sixers is about a good a matchup as we could have. Obviously there’s some blowout risk, but check out how he’s done over the past three weeks:

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The Thunder have the highest projected total on the board at 118 points, and while they’re favored by 16, at least the game is on the road and the Sixers have an outside shot at keeping it competitive for a while. He’s scored at least 20 points in every game but one this year, and it’s hard to imagine him not going for at least his season average of 28 in this matchup. The huge upside isn’t there since I do think the Thunder will have a comfortable lead at some point in the fourth quarter, but the floor is extremely high and I think it’s worth paying for in cash games. If you averse to the blowout factor, take a look at Andrew Wiggins (just a little bit lower in the image above) for a much cheaper price in an uptempo game that should stay a little closer.

Power Forward: Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors

I love rostering Green, specifically because of his peripheral stats. Anytime we can roster the Warriors in a road game with a spread under 10 is just a bonus since that should help us avoid the typical Golden State blowout. Here’s how he’s fared over the past three weeks:

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Green hasn’t shown us the upside he did earlier in the year, but he’s still averaged 1.08 FanDuel points per minute over the last 15, and being a favorite in the highest total game of the day certainly doesn’t hurt his chances tonight.

I’m a big fan of “safe” plays when paying up, and Green fits that bill nightly – it’s rare that he’ll put up a complete dud, and at some point he’s going to go off again.

I’m hoping tonight is that night.

Center: Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons

Center will really be all about Bismack Biyombo tonight if Jonas Valanciunas is out again. However, if Valanciunas plays, or if you’re looking to roll out some different tournament lineups, let’s take a look at what the tool shows us for Centers over the last three weeks:

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Drummond has been absolutely killing it lately (he’s averaged 1.2 FD points per minute over the last 15 games), and now he gets the Kings in a superb, uptempo matchup at home where the Pistons are expected to score close to 113 points. Foul trouble is always a concern with Boogie Cousins on the other side, but barring that Drummond will be in line for his typical double-double and in an uptempo matchup like this we could see another 20-20 game from him.

Good luck tonight, Grinders!

About the Author

dre87
David Erfley (dre87)

David Erfley, aka dre87 is a top 50 overall daily fantasy player in the RotoGrinders rankings. He’s been playing fantasy sports since 1999 and daily fantasy sports since 2013, and he began contributing to RG in late 2015.