NBA Starting Five: Friday, March 4th

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The Starting 5 series will provide Grinders with a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.

Today we’ll take a closer look at our Ceiling and Consistency Tool, specifically looking at tonight’s FanDuel salaries.

As the page header states, the Ceiling and Consistency tool shows you how often each player has hit their value based on that day’s salary. The percentage columns (%3x, %4x, etc) show the percentage of the time that particular player has hit that value multiplier. For example, if a player has a salary of $5,000, the %3x column will show the percentage of games in which he has scored at least 15 fantasy points ($5,000 divided by 1000, then multiplied by three).

Personally, I enjoy using the tool to help identify underpriced players. Many new DFS NBA players fall into the trap of using the same players on all or most sites they play on, regardless of price. Perhaps as much as any DFS sport, a player’s price is supremely important for the NBA, and the Ceiling and Consistency tool lets us easily visualize that, seeing how that player has done historically given his price.

Point Guard: Goran Dragic, Miami Heat

In the eight games the Heat have played after the break (all without Chris Bosh as he deals with his blood clot issues), Dragic has been remarkably consistent:

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He’s hit 5x his salary in six of those eight, and in the two he didn’t, he managed 25.9 and 26.6 FanDuel points. He’s playing very consistent minutes (at least 33 in seven of those eight games, 29 in the other game), and his role in the offense means he’ll have plenty of scoring and assist opportunities, and he chips in on the boards pretty well for a point guard. There are lots of good options in this range at point guard tonight – D’Angelo Russell will be popular because of his recent success and opportunity, as will Ricky Rubio and Kyrie Irving to a lesser degree. I definitely wouldn’t talk anyone out of playing them (especially Russell), but I love Dragic’s high floor, and in tonight’s matchup with the 76ers in Philadelphia, the Heat should be able to do what they want offensively (currently projected to score over 107 based on the opening Vegas line).

Shooting Guard: Victor Oladipo, Orlando Magic

Editor’s Note: Victor Oladipo has been ruled OUT for tonight.

Here’s how the shooting guards have looked over the last three weeks:

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Many DFS players were burned by Oladipo on Tuesday against the Mavericks when he only managed 13.8 FanDuel points in 23 minutes. Outside of that, though, he’s been very consistent lately as the trade of Tobias Harris for Ersan Ilyasova and Brandon Jennings left the Magic relatively thin at SG and SF. Even with Evan Fournier now probable for tonight’s game, it’s more than likely that Oladipo will get 35+ minutes again in this game, a number he’s hit in 10 of his last 13 games. He’s been a 0.88 FanDuel point per minute producer over his last 15 games, but in this matchup we can expect a little more. The Magic are at home against the Suns and they’re currently projected to score more than 113 points. And where are they weakest? A quick look at the DvP Cheat Sheet shows us that Phoenix is the second-worst team in the league in terms of fantasy points given up to opposing shooting guards:

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Oladipo will be very popular tonight, especially if Fournier does happen to sit again, but this is a great spot for him and he’s in play in all formats.

Small Forward: LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers

You can make a case that at his current salary, LeBron has been the most consistent small forward on the season:

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He’s hit 4x tonight’s salary (39.2 FanDuel points or more) in 77% of his games. He doesn’t possess a ton of upside unless Kyrie Irving or Kevin Love miss a game (and literally as I was writing this, Kevin Love was ruled out tonight), but I’m a big fan of locking in consistent points at small forward. There are often opportunities for value with the Matt Barnes’ of the world, but as we saw just a couple nights ago when Barnes went for just 6.9 FanDuel points in 27 minutes, most small forwards are reliant on either hitting a few threes or picking up a few steals to hit value – their role in the offense just isn’t large enough. With LeBron we know we’re locking in a very high floor at a tough position, and tonight’s matchup sets up very well for him. The Cavaliers will be getting a nice pace bump (Washington is fifth in pace at 100.3 possessions per game, Cleveland is 29th at 95.2), and they’re projected to score over 108 in this game. Plus a quick look at the DvP Cheat Sheet shows us that the Wizards are a bottom five team against small forwards on the year:

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With Kevin Love out, the pace-up home matchup against a team with no one to defend him, and the decent price under $10K, Lebron will be popular tonight. I’d be wary of fading him – especially in cash games.

Power Forward: Jabari Parker, Milwaukee Bucks

Parker has been great recently – just check out the last three weeks:

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He’s played at least 34 minutes in all seven games since the All-Star Break, and those minutes have helped give him a very high floor (21.5+ FanDuel points in those seven games). His price on FanDuel is very fair (he’s $6,500 on DraftKings for reference), and in a home matchup against Minnesota tonight, the Bucks should be able to score in bunches (they’re currently 5-point favorites and expected to score 109 points based on the current Vegas line). The bottom line is that Parker probably has the highest floor dollar-for-dollar at power forward tonight, and we should enjoy this low price will it lasts – it won’t be long until he’s near or above $7K.

Center: Alex Len, Phoenix Suns

It’s pretty clear that Len far and away been the best performer at center over the last 3 weeks:

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That’s a trend that will continue as long as Len gets the type of minutes he’s been getting (averaging 30+ since the All-Star Break), given that he’s been a 1+ FanDuel point per minute producer over his last 15 games. At just $5,300 on FanDuel, he’s arguably one of the better values on the slate. Part of me is still a little wary given that Tyson Chandler is still there, and the Suns frontcourt hasn’t historically been the most stable place to rely on for DFS purposes, but most of that risk is mitigated by the price and the fact that he’ll be very popular in cash games. If the ship goes down tonight, a lot of people will be going down with it.

What he has going for him tonight though is a decent matchup (Orlando is just average at defending opposing bigs), and the last time these two teams met, Len went off for 20 points, 14 rebounds, and three blocks. The bottom line: given how popular he’ll be, and how inconsistent the Suns frontcourt has historically been, he probably makes for a decent tournament fade. In cash games I still think he’s the way to go, as he should be good for at least 15+ FanDuel points even if he has a rough game, and the price will help us spend up elsewhere.

Good luck tonight, Grinders!

About the Author

dre87
David Erfley (dre87)

David Erfley, aka dre87 is a top 50 overall daily fantasy player in the RotoGrinders rankings. He’s been playing fantasy sports since 1999 and daily fantasy sports since 2013, and he began contributing to RG in late 2015.