NBA Starting 5: Tuesday, March 29th
The Starting Five series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
I’m going to use the CourtIQ tool to identify players who are in favorable situations based on the possibility or certainty that one or more of their teammates will be out tonight. At this point in the season, who is playing and, more importantly, who isn’t, determine everything. If you’re not aware of which players benefit in the absence of an established starter, you have no chance. RotoGrinders’s CourtIQ tool is a fast and easy way to analyze different scenarios and quickly determine who, if anyone, is likely to see a boost in production due to an injury or rest.
Let’s take a look at today’s Starting Five on DraftKings.
Point Guard: Kyrie Irving, $6,900
It’s been a long time since we’ve seen Irving under $7.000 on DraftKings, but some recent poor shooting and, subsequently, poor fantasy performances have served to suppress his price. LeBron James has already been ruled out for tonight, and as we can see from CourtIQ, Irving benefits greatly when James is off the floor. While Irving is averaging 1.02 DraftKings points/minute this season, his production skyrockets to 1.32 DraftKings points/minute with James off the floor. With Irving likely to play around 36 minutes against the Rockets, that works out to about 47.5 fantasy points. Yes, Patrick Beverley is a solid defender, but the Rockets are still a poor defensive team that pushes the pace. In what is likely to be a close, high-scoring game, Irving is one of my favorite plays of the day. Hopefully his off the court drama doesn’t impact his play.
Shooting Guard: James Harden, $10,400
The Rockets certainly aren’t resting players while they’re fighting for a playoff berth, and unless some news breaks after I finish writing this article, no Houston players are expected to sit. You might be wondering, then, why on earth am I writing up Harden? How does CourtIQ help when a team is expected to have all of its starters available? Well, as you can see, Harden is averaging 1.34 DraftKings points per minute over the course of the season. He’s also played 42, 42, and 44 minutes over Houston’s past three games. None of those games went to overtime.
At this point in the season, some players are going to play ridiculous minutes because their team is in must-win mode. That’s exactly the case with Houston, and if we take Harden’s 1.34 DK points/minute and multiply by 42 minutes, we get 56.28 fantasy points. Now consider that Harden has been playing out of his mind, and you’re looking at a player that has a likely floor of 50 with upside well over 60. I don’t know about you, but there’s just no way I’m fading that in cash games. Even with Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant in action, Harden is the clear number one play on the slate.
Small Forward: Kevin Durant, $10,000
For Durant, I’ve supplied his numbers when Russell Westbrook is off the floor. No, Westbrook is not sittng this one out, but it’s important to understand what is happening with the rotations in Oklahoma City. Often times, Durant has been coming off the floor halfway through the first, returning toward the end of the first as Westbrook is taking his first break. With Billy Donovan staggering when his two best players on the court, Durant has been playing a lot of second quarter time as the primary option with Westbrook sitting on the bench. Even though no one is missing tonight’s game, we can still use CourtIQ to analyze the effects of changes in playing time or rotations. At just $10,000, you can target Durant with confidence as tonight’s matchup with the Pistons should stay close through all four quarters. Both Westbrook and Durant finished above 60 fantasy points against Toronto last night, and I’m expecting something similar tonight.
Power Forward: Kevin Love, $6,800
Here we have a perfect example of the CourtIQ tool telling us something that we didn’t expect. As you can see, Love is earning 1.07 fantasy points/minute with LeBron James off the floor, and 1.08 when he’s on. Don’t blindly assume one player is going to benefit from another player sitting out. Do the research and check the numbers yourself.
That said, Love is a terrific option today. While the production doesn’t see a boost without James, we likely don’t need to worry about the fact that Love’s minutes have been a little erratic at times. Love is going to play big minutes, and he should do very well against a Rockets team that has been dreadful against opposing power forwards all season. An up tempo game against a team that plays little to no defense puts Love in a great spot, and although the numbers aren’t supporting a boost in production during Lebron James absence, I’m exercising some common sense and not holding it against him. At just $6,800, Love is an easy play for me.
Center: Pau Gasol, $7,200
Gasol missed some games and was put on a minutes restriction when he returned, which served to push his price down. He simply couldn’t put together the sort of performances required to keep his price above $8,000, so now we can roster him at $7,200. The Bulls should have everyone tomorrow, but as we can see, Gasol produces at a high rate regardless of who is on the court with him. His 1.29 DraftKings points per minute are elite, and if we project him to play the same 34 minutes he played last night against Atlanta, we can estimate he’ll finish with around 44 fantasy points. That’s a terrific score for a $7,200 player. It’s also important to note that Gasol is extremely consistent, and sports an incredibly high floor. With Chicago desperate to try to get into the playoffs (I don’t think they will), the starters are going to play all the minutes they can handle until they’re eliminated from contention.