NBA Starting Five: Wednesday, March 23rd
The Starting Five series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’ll take a closer look at our Vegas Odds and Lines Tool as this is an easy way to figure out which teams we need to target players from. From there, we can use tools such as the Defense vs. Position Tool to identify players from those teams.
Here is the chart sorted by team “projected points” for the night.
Point Guard – Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers
The Warriors/Clippers game is the marquee fantasy matchup of the night, as it has a healthy projected total of 224 points. Even though the Clippers are underdogs, they are still projected for one of the higher totals of the night. Stephen Curry is a great player, but he is by no means a lock-down defender.
Paul is the engine that runs the Clippers offense and should be in a line for a fine game this evening. He is also playing some good basketball right now, so lock him in as a top-end play that actually comes at a bit of a discount from the other elite point guards in the league.
Shooting Guard – Zach LaVine, Minnesota Timberwolves
Shooting guard is a fine position to fine some mid-range plays today. Zach LaVine is locked into a 36-40 minute role for the Timberwolves, and he draws a prime matchup against the Kings this evening. Sacramento doesn’t play a lick of defense and they are terrible against the shooting guard spot, ranking 29th in the league against the position. LaVine’s price hasn’t moved much in recent weeks, and he should be a solid option in all formats this evening.
Small Forward – LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
We have a fun small forward matchup tonight as LeBron James and the Cavs take on Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks.
He may not say it publically, but you know LeBron wants to show who’s boss in this game. He is coming off a fine 65 fantasy point performance the other night, and King James is playing some of his best basketball of the year right now. Expect him to be aggressive in this game, and I like James as my preferred option. Milwaukee has surprisingly been poor against opposing small forwards this year, and that won’t get any better with a matchup against James and the Cavs.
Power Forward – Derrick Favors, Utah Jazz
Even though the Jazz aren’t listed in the top table here as one of the highest totals of the night, I will make an exception for Derrick Favors. Houston has had all sorts of problems defending opposing power forwards this year, as they have rotated through a cast of characters at the position including Clint Capela, Josh Smith, Terrence Jones, Michael Beasley, and others. None of those guys have proven capable of packing a defensive punch, and I expect Derrick Favors to take full advantage.
This is an absolutely vital game in the Western Conference playoff race, with both teams (along with Dallas) fighting for the last two playoff spots. Favors is one of my favorite plays of the night on a per-dollar basis.
Center – Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons
Drummond doesn’t have the best DvP matchup, as Orlando is ranked in the middle of the pack against opposing centers this season. However, Drummond has 20/20 upside with his rebounding ability, especially when you tack on a matchup against an Orlando team that will once again be without Nikola Vucevic. Give Drummond a long look for his immense upside in tournament formats this evening.
If you want a safer play or a pick that relies more on the DvP values, take a look at….
Marcin Gortat. He has a favorable matchup against an Atlanta squad that has struggled on the interior all year, especially on the glass. I would lean toward Drummond as a GPP play and Gortat as a cash game play this evening.