NBA Tool Analysis: Ceiling vs. Consistency
Hello Grinders!
This will be our second time taking a look at the Ceiling vs. Consistency tool. In this edition I’m going to sort by the highest floors and take a look at the top five players at each position. These lists are sure to be full of the top NBA stars, but we might just find a few guys in there what we didn’t expect to see.
First up is the point guard position, and it’s clear that paying up for point guards might be an optimal strategy on most nights. Four out of the top five have a floor of over 30 fantasy points. The only other position with multiple 30-point floor players is the power forward spot, which has two players that fit the bill.
One player to point out is Kyle Lowry. He has been amazing from a fantasy perspective since DeMar DeRozan went down with an injury. However, his price has risen to the same neighborhood as the top three in this list, so on some nights it might be a little bit safer to simply pay up a little bit more for Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook or Stephen Curry. Lowry is also about to take a hit in his usage rate with the impending return of DeRozan.
Shooting guard is usually a dumpster fire of a position to roster on a nightly basis. There are very few two-guards in the league that dominate the ball. Most are pure shooters or wing defenders. James Harden is one exception to that rule though, as he is usually the one dictating the offense for the Rockets. This list shows him having the second highest floor in the league.
Kobe Bryant comes in at number two on the list, but he is aging and is now resting in back to backs, so he won’t always be an option for your rosters. Jimmy Butler has been a revelation this season, as he has transformed himself into an MVP candidate. His price keeps creeping up though, so some sites are starting to price him out of cash game range. The one guy to really stand out on this list for me is Klay Thompson. He has really started to expand his game and is more than just a 3-point shooter now. Thompson isn’t priced with the top guys either, so I really like him in cash games on most nights.
The small forward spot has the usual suspects of LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony. They will be on this list for years to come for sure. The two guys that were surprising to me were Rudy Gay and Tobias Harris. In the past, Rudy Gay has been impossible to roster for cash games, because he always had that 10 fantasy point game waiting to come out and bite you. Something has changed for him in Sacramento though, as he has shown a more consistent scoring ability while also adding in other peripheral stats.
Tobias Harris was rotting away on the Bucks bench until a mid-season trade shipped him off to the Magic. All that he has done since is become a legit NBA small forward. He plays a ton of minutes and can score inside and out while also being a solid rebounder. He is also agile enough to provide the occasional block and/or steal. What’s more, Harris is priced way down compared to the other four guys on this list, so he finds his way into my cash lineups on a frequent basis.
Like I mentioned above, the power forward position is the only other spot to have multiple 30-point floor players. Anthony Davis is about as safe as they come, because he can do some much on the defensive end with blocks and steals. LaMarcus Aldridge is almost just as safe, but in a totally different way. LaMarcus might be the best shooting big man in the league inside of 20 feet (Dirk is still the top dog in the long-range department). Game flow also favors Aldridge in a lot of games, because if it’s a close game, the Blazers like to run their offense through him. As a result, he is usually the one jacking up shots in crunch time.
Meanwhile, Pau Gasol has been great for the Bulls this year. He is basically duplicating Joakim Noah’s production from last year while also being a more prolific scorer. Pau will be in the Hall of Fame one day and I’ll gladly argue with anyone that thinks otherwise.
DeMarcus Cousins is the “king” of the cash game floor now. You see what I did there? What’s not to love about DeMarcus Cousins though? He’s the most dominant scoring big man in the league since Shaq, while also being just as nuts on the court as Dennis Rodman. All jokes aside, Cousins has certainly matured and is nowhere near the head case that he was earlier in his career. His usage rate is always through the roof, and I would never fault anyone for building his or her rosters around him.
We all know how good Marc Gasol has been for the Grizzlies this season and this list proves it. Further down, the one player to really jump off the page is DeAndre Jordan. Even since college, he has always had the physical tools to be a solid NBA center. He just needed time to develop, and Doc Rivers has done a fantastic job helping. Rivers has molded Jordan into a force that hardly anyone could have envisioned. Jordan always has the potential for 15-20 rebounds on any given night, and throw in a few highlight reel dunks and he is one his way to reaching cash game value on most nights.
This really is a great tool for both cash game players and tournament players. I always make sure to take a look at it before finalizing my rosters for the night.
Hopefully this information helps you tonight and going forward. Check back next week as I highlight another free RG research tool. As always, feel free to leave a comment or reach out to me on twitter, @Socky21.