NBA Trend Blend: Monday, November 28th
Defense versus Position isn’t everything – pace isn’t everything – defensive rating isn’t everything, but the combination of trends and metrics is something; it’s the NBA Trend Blend.
Admittedly, there is no single article or tool that you can use to build perfect lineups night in and night out, but this will be another awesome article/tool that you can use to gain an edge over the competition. Some may look at one tool/trend and make decisions solely based on a narrow set of data, but we will dive in to take a deeper look at some of the best plays on the slate.
This article will feature some of my favorite plays (and occasionally overrated plays) at each position based on DvP, pace, defensive rating, and other factors.
DRtg/A – An estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for strength of opponent offense
Pace – Possessions per game
DvP – Defense versus Position
Slate Info
Games
Seven
Highest O/U
Atlanta Hawks @ Golden State Warriors – 218
Lowest O/U
Utah Jazz @ Minnesota Timberwolves – 194.5
Highest Projected Total
Golden State Warriors – 115.5
Lowest Projected Total
Minnesota Timberwolves – 96
Largest Spread
Golden State Warriors: 13-point favorites over Atlanta Hawks
Closest Spread
OKC @ NYK: 1.5-point spread
CHA @ MEM:1.5-point spread
Point Guard
Favorites
Derrick Rose ($6,000 DK – $6,100 FD) – On this seven game slate, there isn’t a clear PG matchup in terms of our trends that stands out above the rest, but there are two that I am currently favoring. Rose is one of them. I confess that I have not rostered Rose at all this season, but there is plenty to like in this spot. The spread on this game is just one point, while the O/U is an excellent 213. Russell Westbrook and the Thunder currently represent the third most favorable PG DvP matchup in the NBA, and they also play at the third fastest pace in the NBA. This is a nice pace-up spot for D-Rose and the Knicks, and Rose should have extra opportunities for peripheral stats in this game. Rose has also flashed 45-50 FPTS upside recently, and I think he’s a lock to meet value in this game tonight.
George Hill ($6,600 DK – $6,500 FD) – Hill finds himself in a pace-up spot against the Timberwolves tonight (although, literally every opponent will be a pace-up spot for the Jazz). I like targeting competitive games, and Vegas has this game as a two-point spread. In his last two games since returning from injury, Hill has scored 22 and 23 points with 35 plus FPTS. Hill played fewer than 30 minutes in both games, but both games were blowout wins for the Jazz. With tonight’s game expected to be closely contested, Hill should be in line for more minutes. Minnesota is currently 25th in DRtg/A, and are also an above average matchup for opposing PG’s. I like Hill to crush value tonight.
Others worth mentioning
Russell Westbrook
Stephen Curry
Kyle Lowry
Brandon Jennings
Shooting Guard
Favorites
Bradley Beal ($6,900 DK – $6,300 FD) – Beal has been on some kind of tear recently. He has 25 or more real life points in three of his last four games. What I really like to see from Beal is the recent uptick in peripheral statistics. Beal has long been a scoring dependent shooting guard (like most SG’s), but he has recently increased his assists and rebounds while also increasing his shot volume. The Kings are a favorable matchup in terms of our trends – they are 27th in DRtg/A, 21st in SG DvP and the pace is nearly identical for both teams (both slightly below average in pace). Vegas projects this game to be decided by five points or less, which is always a positive when building a lineup. While the price is steadily climbing, Beal has met or exceeded value in five straight games, and should have no problem doing it again in this spot tonight.
Victor Oladipo ($6,600 DK – $6,300 FD) – Oladipo is also seeing an uptick in performance recently. It has to be hard going from Orlando (where he was the main scoring threat and handled the ball a large amount) to OKC (where he is very much the second fiddle to a certain PG). Oladipo has been excellent lately and seems to be finding his role. The Knicks represent the fourth most favorable DvP matchup for opposing SG’s and are 24th in DRtg/A. Again, this is a great game to target as it is expected to be closely contested throughout, and Oladipo should be able to show his stuff tonight.
Others worth mentioning
Victor Oladipo
Klay Thompson
Small Forward
Favorites
Rudy Gay ($6,800 DK – $7,100 FD) – The Wizards struggle in team defensive measures and currently rank 26th in DRtg/A. Rudy gets a tougher draw as Washington typically does a solid job against opposing SF’s, but I still like Rudy in this spot given the spread and O/U. Rudy also owns the fifth highest USG rate among all SF’s in the NBA and 23.89. Given the close nature of this game and the role that Gay has for this Sacramento team, I think he’s a great bet to meet value and he is my favorite SF play on the slate at the moment.
Others worth mentioning
Kevin Durant
Carmelo Anthony
James Johnson
Power Forward
Favorites
JaMychal Green ($5,000 DK – $4,600 FD) PF is void of any great matchups tonight, but Green gets the trend blend nod here. Green has seen 31 plus minutes in four straight games and has scored double digit real life points in all four. Green isn’t going to win the night for you, but he’s likely to meet or exceed value for you in this spot. If Zach Randolph misses tonight’s game again, Green should be in line for more minutes and more production yet again. The DvP and DRtg/A matchup is average against the Hornets, but Green remains cheap and doesn’t need to do a whole lot to reach value tonight. I can’t strongly endorse any PF on the slate, but given the options, I’d rather go cheap.
Others worth mentioning
Kristaps Porzingis
Paul Millsap
Center
Favorites
Hassan Whiteside ($8,500 DK/FD) – Whiteside gets a great matchup against the Celtics tonight, which is only improved by Al Horford missing tonight’s game due to the birth of his child. Whiteside has seen a dip in production and a dip in salary over the last week, which may lower ownership on him tonight. The Celtics rank 25th in C DvP, and are below average in DRtg/A. The Celtics are also a bottom five rebounding team in the NBA, and that alone should boost Hassan’s floor tonight. Vegas has this game at a 3.5-point spread, which means that the starters should see plenty of run. Whiteside is nearly a lock for a double double against this weak rebounding frontcourt of the Celtics.
UPDATE: Whiteside (knee) is now listed as questionable to play tonight.
Steven Adams ($5,100 DK – 4,800 FD) – Adams gets a top 10 DvP matchup in what Vegas anticipates to be a closely contested game. The Knicks are also a bottom seven team in DRtg/A, and are an average rebounding team. Adams is in a sneaky good spot and his price continues to drop. One thing that I like to look at is Vegas implied points. OKC’s total has already increased by two points since earlier this morning, which bodes well for the Thunder on the offensive end. Adams usage rate and roll don’t figure to be a large factor on the offensive end, but he does enough in the rebounds/assists/blocks/steals categories to keep him more than relevant, particularly in games that are expected to be close.
Others worth mentioning
DeMarcus Cousins
Jonas Valanciunas
Tendencies To Exploit
The natural instinct is to want to roster studs from each position and to ultimately “settle” for less optimal plays, but that doesn’t have to be true. There are optimal plays at various price points on any given slate, and tonight is no different. Consider the trends and consider what Vegas has to say, and find the best plays regardless of price. Hopefully this article gets you on the right track!
Give me a shout out on twitter when you win the money tonight! Thanks for reading.