NBA Trend Blend: Monday, October 31st
Defense versus Position isn’t everything – pace isn’t everything – defensive rating isn’t everything, but the combination of trends and metrics is something; it’s the NBA Trend Blend.
Admittedly, there is no single article or tool that you can use to build perfect lineups night in and night out, but this will be another awesome article/tool that you can use to gain an edge over the competition. Some may look at one tool/trend and make decisions solely based on a narrow set of data, but we will dive in to take a deeper look at some of the best plays on the slate.
This article will feature some of my favorite plays (and occasionally overrated plays) at each position based on DvP, pace, defensive rating, and other factors.
DRtg/A – An estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for strength of opponent offense
Pace – Possessions per game
DvP – Defense versus Position
While the season is still young, I will reference statistical measurements from both this season and last season.
Point Guard
Favorites
Chris Paul (8.5k DK – 9.3k FD) – Last season, the Phoenix Suns were a team to attack with Point Guards, and there isn’t much of a reason to deviate from that this season. Phoenix was a top seven PG matchup in terms of pace, DRtg/A and DvP. CP3’s price is reasonable, and his slow start to the season may scare some off, but he’s in a prime spot to do damage in an up-tempo game. The Clippers also have the second highest O/U on the slate. The spread is a bit concerning at 10 plus points, but if the Suns can keep this one close, Paul should be able to exceed value in this matchup.
Jeremy Lin (6.3k DK – 6.5k FD) – It’s time to start considering Lin as a viable play on every night that he’s playing. I know, I know. Through three games, he’s averaging a healthy 14 shots (including 5.3 three pointers per game) to go along with six plus assists and six free throws per game. Lin and the Nets face the Bulls tonight, and both Rajon Rondo and Jeremy Lin are in play. I slightly prefer Lin because of his offensive role for his team. Rondo gets off fewer shots, but collects more assists. Last season, the Kings ranked 25th against Point Guards thanks to Rondo’s defensive ineptitude. Meanwhile, the Nets have been playing at a quicker pace this season with Lin at point. Lin may not be the most efficient point guard on the slate tonight, but his upside is as high as anyone’s when you consider his role, price and the matchup.
Others worth mentioning
Shooting Guard
Favorites
DeMar DeRozan (7.3k DK – 7.9 FD) – The masses will likely be on DeRozan tonight, and I can’t strongly argue against it. There are some red flags, but there is more to like than not. First off, DeRozan has taken 55 shots through two games (only three 3-point shots). That’s a ton of offensive usage. The Raptors aren’t likely to play at a fast pace, but this is an uptempo game for them as the Nuggets are playing at the fastest pace in the league so far (though that is inflated somewhat by an OT game). The Nuggets ranked 26th in Shooting Guard DvP and 23rd in DRtg/A last season. The concern for DeRozan is that he isn’t doing much in peripheral statistics (nor has he ever, really), and he is turning the ball over at a high rate. DeRozan has faced Detroit and Cleveland, who are both more difficult matches than he will face tonight, which makes me willing to overlook the red flags and strongly consider him on a small slate tonight.
Others worth mentioning
Will Barton
Devin Booker – GPP only
Small Forward
Favorites
T.J. Warren (5.4k DK – 5.5k FD) – Last season, both the Suns and Clippers played at above average pace. While the DvP matchup could be better (LAC ranked 12th in SF DvP last season), Warren has already shown himself to be able to produce in difficult spots (and this is a four game slate, so we’ve got to roster someone!). Warren is taking his shots (14, 18, 21) and is producing in real points and in peripheral statistics as well. His price is climbing, but he continues to be affordable. As mentioned, the Clippers are not an easy matchup in terms of DvP or DRtg/A, but this game does feature the second highest O/U on the slate and at a cheap salary, he should be able to meet/exceed value tonight.
Jimmy Butler (7.6k DK – 8.0k FD) – Jimmy won’t come cheap, but he is playing in the highest O/U on the slate. If you don’t want to go cheaper with Warren, I’d go to Jimmy. With Wade in town, the usage is going to decrease, but Butler does enough peripherally that the shot attempts doesn’t concern me as much. Some will reference the defensive abilities of Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, but Jae Crowder ate him alive on opening night, and as mentioned, Jimmy doesn’t need 25 real life points to meet value. He’s the highest priced SF on the slate, but he does have multiple position eligibility on DK and he does bring a safe floor to your cash games. Last year, the Nets ranked second to last in DRtg/A and they have been playing at a faster tempo this season, which only enhances this spot for Butler and the Bulls.
Others worth mentioning
Bojan Bogdanovic
Wilson Chandler (Gary Harris is out, which means continued minutes for Chandler)
Power Forward
Favorites
Blake Griffin (8.8k DK – 9.0k FD) – The PF position is fairly deep for a four game slate, but Griffin is the play that brings the safest floor. Last season, the Suns were a top ten matchup in terms of DRtg/A and pace, while they were an average DvP matchup. Blake is another guy who does a lot across the stat-sheet, including shooting more three’s this year. The price isn’t cheap, but you’re paying up for one of the highest floors of anyone at any position.
Taj Gibson (5.1k DK – 5.4k FD) – I could easily put Trevor Booker here as well with his recent production and his cheaper price, but the matchup is slightly better for Taj. Ultimately, I like both plays a lot. The Nets struggle against opposing bigs’ as both Booker and BroLo leave something to be desired defensively. As previously mentioned, the Nets owned the second worst DRtg/A last season and are showing no signs of vast improvement on that end. Combine their defensive issues with an uptick in pace, and this is a spot to take advantage of. Taj has only been seeing 25-28 minutes so far on the young season, but his shot efficiency and rebounding has allowed him to exceed value in both games. Taj should be able to meet and exceed value once again in this prime matchup.
Others worth mentioning
Trevor Booker
Kenneth Faried
Nikola Jokic
Center
Favorites
Jonas Valanciunas (6.7 DK – 6.4 FD) – There is no truly elite matchup on the board at the Center position, so I’m looking for the best high floor/high ceiling combo. While that may be DeMarcus Cousins, I’m not looking to spend close to 11k on him tonight. That leaves us with a handful of other options, and Val is my favorite among them. The adage has long been that we should pick on the Nuggets with opposing big men, but that doesn’t really hold up anymore. Jokic and Nurkic are forces to be reckoned with these days. However, Val no longer has Bismack hanging out on the bench behind him, which has meant extended run in the minute’s department. Valanciunas has also seen an uptick in usage so far this season, taking 15 shots in each of his first two games. As a team, the Nuggets ranked in the bottom eight in DRtg/A last season. Vegas projects this game to be close enough that we should anticipate starters playing well into the fourth quarter here, so I’m trusting the minutes to be there along with the production tonight.
Others worth mentioning
Tendencies To Exploit
This could backfire, but tonight I’m choosing to go with an all-out fade of the most expensive player on the board – DeMarcus Cousins. Many DFS’ers will want to capture his upside, but Dwight Howard poses a tougher than average matchup (assuming he wants to play defense, which he has so far this season). At his price, Boogie will need over 50 FP’s to meet value. It could happen, but it’s something I’m willing to be wrong about if he does. Either way, I don’t see him putting up a monster stat line on the road against a defensively improved Hawks frontcourt. If this backfires, I am prepared for the hate tweets tonight.
I welcome your thoughts and feedback as we look to make this article something useful for you throughout the NBA season.