NBA Trend Blend: Wednesday, January 11th
Defense versus Position isn’t everything – pace isn’t everything – defensive rating isn’t everything, but the combination of trends and metrics is something; it’s the NBA Trend Blend.
Admittedly, there is no single article or tool that you can use to build perfect lineups night in and night out, but this will be another awesome article/tool that you can use to gain an edge over the competition. Some may look at one tool/trend and make decisions solely based on a narrow set of data, but we will dive in to take a deeper look at some of the best plays on the slate.
This article will feature some of my favorite plays (and occasionally overrated plays) at each position based on DvP, pace, defensive rating, and other factors.
DRtg/A – An estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for strength of opponent offense
Pace – Possessions per game
DvP – Defense versus Position
Slate Info
Games
Six
Highest O/U
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Portland Trail Blazers – 221
Lowest O/U
Memphis Grizzlies @ Oklahoma City Thunder – 203
Highest Projected Total
Cleveland Cavaliers – 112.5
Lowest Projected Total
Orlando Magic – 99
Memphis Grizzlies – 99
Largest Spread
Los Angeles Clippers – 10.5-point home favorites over Orlando Magic
Closest Spread
New York Knicks – 1.5-point road favorites over Philadelphia 76ers
Favorite Games To Stack
Houston Rockets @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Washington Wizards @ Boston Celtics
Quick Thoughts
This is now the fourth consecutive Wednesday of taking a slightly different approach. I continue to receive a lot of positive feedback, so we’ll keep this format going each Wednesday until further notice.
These plays listed aren’t meant to be the only options that you should consider, but they are intended to get you pointed in the right direction as to who the best plays on the board are at each position based on a variety of trends, rotations, injuries and other statistics. As always, feel free to comment below with thoughts and questions. Thanks for reading!
Point Guard
Favorites
Isaiah Thomas versus Washington Wizards – eighth in PG DvP – 16th fastest pace – 21st in DRtg/A
Mike Conley versus Oklahoma City Thunder – 19th in PG DvP – sixth fastest pace – ninth in DRtg/A
Patrick Beverley versus Minnesota Timberwolves – 16th in PG DvP – 25th fastest pace – 26th in DRtg/A
John Wall versus Boston Celtics – 13th in PG DvP – 18th fastest pace – 22nd in DRtg/A
Shooting Guard
Favorites
James Harden versus Minnesota Timberwolves – third in SG DvP – 25th fastest pace – 26th in DRtg/A
Zach LaVine versus Houston Rockets – 25th in SG DvP – fifth fastest pace – 18th in DRtg/A
Note – With Zach LaVine looking doubtful, it’s worth noting that Andrew Wiggins sees a boost in usage by 10% (27.2% with LaVine on – 37% with LaVine off) when LaVine is off the court, which is a massive number. Nemanja Bjelica may see the biggest minutes boost (as was the case last time LaVine missed), but keep an eye on news and updates. The biggest benefactor would appear to be Wiggins.
C.J. McCollum versus Cleveland Cavaliers – 26th in SG DvP – 14th fastest pace – 10th in DRtg/A
Marcus Smart versus Washington Wizards (If Bradley is Out) – 13th in SG DvP – 16th fastest pace – 21st in DRtg/A
Small Forward
Favorites
LeBron James versus Portland Trail Blazers – 28th in SF DvP – 12th fastest pace – 28th in DRtg/A – 25th in rebounding differential
Andrew Wiggins versus Houston Rockets – 15th in SF DvP – 25th in SG DvP – fifth fastest pace – 18th in DRtg/A – sixth in rebounding differential
Robert Covington versus New York Knicks – 21st in SF DvP – eighth fastest pace – 27th in DRtg/A – 13th in rebounding differential
Otto Porter versus Boston Celtics – 27th in SF DvP – 18th fastest pace – 22nd in DRtg/A – 28th in rebounding differential
Power Forward
Favorites
Kevin Love versus Portland Trail Blazers – 30th in PF DvP – 12th fastest pace – 28th in DRtg/A – 25th in rebounding differential
Ersan Ilyasova versus New York Knicks – 20th in PF DvP – eighth fastest pace – 27th in DRtg/A – 13th in rebounding differential
Kristaps Porzingis versus Philadelphia 76ers – 13th in PF DvP – ninth fastest pace – 15th in DRtg/A – 22nd in rebounding differential
Markieff Morris (yes, really) versus Boston Celtics – 25th in PF DvP – 18th fastest pace – 22nd in DRtg/A – 28th in rebounding differential
Center
Favorites
Joel Embiid versus New York Knicks – 27th in C DvP – eighth fastest pace – 27th in DRtg/A – 13th in rebounding differential
Karl Anthony-Towns versus Houston Rockets – 15th in C DvP – fifth fastest pace – 18th in DRtg/A – sixth in rebounding differential
DeAndre Jordan versus Orlando Magic – 22nd in C DvP – 20th fastest pace – 20th in DRtg/A – 24th in rebounding differential
Marcin Gortat versus Boston Celtics – 24th in C DvP – 18th fastest pace – 22nd in DRtg/A – 28th in rebounding differential
Tendencies To Exploit
This slate has a good mixture of elite defensive teams (Grizzlies, Clippers, Thunder, Cavaliers) and poor defensive teams (Trail Blazers, Knicks, Timberwolves, Celtics, Wizards). On a slate this size, it’s not a bad idea to focus your attention on taking players against those bad defenses, whereas it is also not a bad idea to fade high priced players against those elite defensive teams. That particularly applies to your cash game lineups. At the very least, it is a good place to start. Best of luck tonight!
Give me a shout out on twitter when you win the money tonight! Thanks for reading.