NBA Underdog Player Predictions for Thursday (12/11)
Thursday, December 11, 2025: Below are three of the best picks for today’s NBA slate on Underdog according to our projections team. Using factors like advanced analytics, minutes, matchups, and pace, every single pick is going to be based on what our projections say is a meaningful edge. Get access to all of these picks, including much more, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Keep in mind that the NBA news cycle can get crazy, so what is listed below may become a better/worse play depending on how news breaks. Be sure to keep close tabs on our NBA starting lineups page and NBA injury report to get a current snapshot of who is in/out and what a team’s rotation and depth chart looks like.
Below, I’ll detail how I’m approaching things on Underdog for this Thursday slate.
First… Sign Up to Make NBA Underdog Picks
If you want to play along but haven’t signed up yet, grab a special offer with our Underdog promo code “GRINDERS” to unlock a generous bonus. Underdog – one of the most popular DFS pick’em sites – provides player projections for NBA matchups each day. It is then up to the user to decide whether a player will ultimately exceed or fall short of those projections in the games. With a huge roster of players available from which to choose, we just need to make a minimum of two picks to build an entry.
When making your NBA Underdog picks today, let RotoGrinders do the heavy lifting for you!
Underdog Top NBA Picks for December 11, 2025
Now that you’re signed up, here are some of our top NBA DFS picks on Underdog for Thursday:
- Ryan Rollins lower than 4.5 Rebounds
- Jonas Valanciunas lower than 1.5 Assists
- Trey Murphy III higher than 2.5 Threes
Celtics vs. Bucks NBA Underdog Predictions
Ryan Rollins lower than 4.5 Rebounds
The rebounds projection for Ryan Rollins looks like a strong pick based on the current data. The Underdog projection of 4.5 compares favorably based on our NBA simulations. This pick projects to hit 60.6% of the time based on the assumptions, and that represents a 5.0% edge.
Nuggets vs. Kings NBA Underdog Predictions
Jonas Valanciunas lower than 1.5 Assists
The assists projection for Jonas Valanciunas looks like a strong pick based on the current data. The Underdog projection of 1.5 compares favorably based on our NBA simulations. This pick projects to hit 61.4% of the time based on the assumptions, and that represents a 3.6% edge.
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans NBA Underdog Predictions
Trey Murphy III higher than 2.5 Threes
The threes projection for Trey Murphy III looks like a strong pick based on the current data. The Underdog projection of 2.5 compares favorably based on our NBA simulations. This pick projects to hit 56.8% of the time based on the assumptions, and that represents a 2.8% edge.
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Image Credit: Imagn