North Carolina State vs. Purdue Final Four Preview: Betting Odds, Prediction & Pick
NC State vs. Purdue Odds
| NC State Odds | +9 |
| Purdue Odds | -9 |
| Over/Under | 146.5 |
| Date | Sat, Apr. 6 |
| Time | 6:09 PM ET |
| TV | TBS |
On Saturday night, NC State and Purdue will meet in the Final Four, with the winner advancing to Monday’s National Championship Game at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. Ahead of tip-off this evening, 1-seeded Purdue is heavily favored by 9 points on the spread against 11-seeded NC State. The total is set at over/under 146.5 points.
Below, we break down the matchup for both teams and offer a free pick for the betting community!
North Carolina State Preview
Teams seeded in the double-digits are not expected to still be alive in the NCAA Tournament by the time March Madness transitions into the April portion of the bracket. Just don’t tell NC State about those expectations.
This team has now won 9 consecutive games, dating back to prior to the tournament, including a pair of contests that have gone to overtime. In bracket-play, NC State took down No. 6 Texas Tech in the opening road and then narrowly managed to escape with a win against No. 14 Oakland two days later. In the Sweet 16, NC State easily handled No. 2 Marquette, and then beat No. 4 Duke by 12 points in the Elite 8.
This group has gone through the gauntlet to get to this point. They have every intention of pulling off another upset on Saturday.
Can NC State’s defense hold up against Purdue?
Though NC State’s defense has seemingly turned a corner in recent weeks, holding Duke, Marquette, and Texas Tech to 67 points or fewer – this is likely their most difficult matchup in the tournament. Purdue finished the year ranked 12th out of 362 schools in TS%, 13th in eFG%, and 3rd in AST%, all while doing a good job taking care of the basketball. Teams that have good shot selection, move the ball well, and don’t give away possessions are extremely tough to spot on a consistent basis. It’s possible we see NC State’s recently “improved” defense exploited in this spot.
Purdue Preview
As a 1-seeded team, Purdue had the privilege of opening the tournament against No. 16 Grambling – typically a warm-up game for the higher-seeded team, considering that No. 1 seeds are 154-2 in those contests. However, Purdue wasn’t viewed as a mortal lock in that game after they lost to No. 16 FDU in 2023.
Nevertheless, Purdue didn’t let the program’s recent struggles in the tournament seep into 2024. They took care of Grambling 78-50 and beat No. 8 Utah State by 39 points two days later to advance to the Sweet 16. Even No. 5 Gonzaga failed to give Purdue much of a game in the Sweet 16, losing by double-digits in a game in which they were thoroughly overmatched around the rim. Purdue wasn’t truly tested until the Elite 8 against No. 2 Tennessee, which took the game down to the wire after leading by as many as 11 points earlier in the game. Still, Purdue’s dominance on the glass and in the paint allowed them to escape with a win, despite a poor shooting night from the perimeter.
Purdue looking to take care of business as heavy favorites
If we have learned anything from Purdue so far in this tournament, it’s that they have multiple pathways to victory. As we saw in the Elite 8 against Tennessee, Purdue can dominate the rebounding battle en route to victory. We have also seen them score as many as 106 points in the last month, with their good shot selection and excellent ball movement giving them the potential to explode offensively any time they can knock down their open looks. This team is favored by 9 points for a reason.
NC State vs. Purdue Prediction
This total might seem slightly inflated for a Final Four matchup, which implies an increase in defensive intensity. However, the perception that defensive intensity increases without any change to offensive capabilities in later rounds of postseason play is more myth than fact, for one. There is also the reality that neither of these defenses are particularly well-equipped in this matchup. It wouldn’t be surprising in the slightest to see Purdue hang 80 points or more by themselves this evening. If NC State can knock down enough shots to keep this game competitive, it’s possible that the total goes soaring over 146 points.
- PICK: Over 146 (-110), DraftKings Sportsbook
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