NCAA Tournament Predictions: Best Bets for Round 1 of March Madness
March Madness is BACK! On Thursday, there are 16 opening round contests, beginning at 12:15 PM ET on CBS, with the final tip-off of the day scheduled for 10:05 PM ET on truTV.
Below, we take a look at three of our best bets for Thursday, March 21st!
NCAA Tournament Best Bets & Predictions for Today
According to ESPN, across the last three tournaments, there has been at least one #15 seed each year win a 1st-round game. In the past five tournaments, 14 of the 20 matchups between #4 and #13 seeds have been decided by single digits. In the last 15 tournaments, at least one top-4 seed has been upset in the 1st round in all but one bracket.
All of this is to say that underdogs are live at this time of the year, both on the spread and at enticing moneyline prices. Each of our Thursday best bets takes a look at a potential surprising upset in college hoops!
Morehead State (+11.5) vs. Illinois, O/U 147.5
Expectations are low for #14 seed Morehead State going into March Madness, but they shouldn’t be this low. In 34 games this season, only seven teams in the entire nation had a better raw defensive rating than Morehead State, and only one team held their opponent to a lower TS% and eFG%. Morehead State has also played at an extremely slow pace this season, which should limit the total number of possessions in this contest. Illinois has an elite offense, but their defense could struggle against Morehead State, a team that has good shot selection and moves the ball well.
- PICK: Morehead State +11.5 (-102), FanDuel
Oakland (+13.5) vs. Kentucky, O/U 162.5
In 34 games this season, Oakland played at a below-average pace but ranked 91st in offensive rating out of 362 teams, per Sports Reference. They also ranked in the top 130 in assists, limiting turnovers, TS%, and eFG%. Playing a Kentucky defense that ranked 258th in defensive rating and 108th in adjusted defensive rating, this could be a more competitive contest than the market is currently suggesting.
- PICK: Oakland +13.5 (-104), FanDuel
McNeese State (+6.5) vs. Gonzaga, O/U 149
Entering play on Thursday, McNeese State is 30-3 this season. Though their strength of schedule certainly has a lot to do with their impressive record, the fact of the matter remains that this is a team that is used to winning, and thus, a team that expects to win. Gonzaga is a tough 1st-round opponent for them, but McNeese State plays a good brand of basketball that fits the “upset” mold. Notably, they force a lot of opponent shot attempts from beyond the arc, which we know to be a high variance offensive strategy at this time of the year. Getting 6.5 points, it’s tough to pass up this opportunity.
- PICK: McNeese State +6.5, -110, bet365
For more March Madness tips, check out our NCAA Tournament betting preview.
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