New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Patriots vs. Falcons Odds
| Patriots Odds | -6.5 |
| Falcons Odds | +6.5 |
| Over/Under | 47.5 |
| Date | Thursday, Nov 18. |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NFL Network |
The New England Patriots and the Atlanta Falcons will open Week 11 of the NFL season on Thursday Night Football at Mercedes Benz Stadium. Oddsmakers are expecting a comfortable victory for the Patriots, pricing New England as a touchdown favorite on the spread.
In this Thursday Night Football betting preview, we’ll take a closer look at the matchup and Patriots vs. Falcons odds to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks before things kick off.
Read more: Patriots vs. Falcons Same Game Parlay
New England Patriots (-6.5)
Per CBS, the NFL record for completion percentage by a rookie quarterback over a full season is held by Dak Prescott, who completed 67.8 percent of his passes during the 2016 campaign. Through 10 games this fall, Mac Jones owns a 69.0 percent completion rate and has been an integral component of New England’s current four game winning streak. Over the last month of action, the Patriots have defeated the New York Jets by 41 points, earned impressive road victories against the Los Angeles Chargers and the Carolina Panthers, and annihilated the Cleveland Browns by a final score of 45-7.
As we mentioned during the preseason when we encouraged bettors to wager on Mac Jones to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, New England has themselves one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL. Jones has seen his preseason odds of +450 improve to +130 for good reason. Per Pro Football Focus, Jones has graded as the fifth-best quarterback in the league so far in 2021. During New England’s current winning streak, Jones has a sterling 6-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He is helped out by a strong offensive line and capable pass catchers, including Hunter Henry, who has been an elite red zone target this season.
Defensively, there are few teams better than the Patriots in the NFL. This unit held Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to only 19 points. New England has allowed only 50 combined points over the last four weeks against the Jets, Chargers, Panthers, and Browns. Opposing quarterbacks have a dreadful 75.7 passer rating against the Patriots this season and are completing only 59.4 percent of their pass attempts. New England has also been a top-10 defense against the rush, permitting only 4.2 yards-per-carry. Coming off of a three-point performance in Week 10, it could be difficult for the Falcons to put points on the board on Thursday.
Atlanta Falcons (+6.5)
Atlanta has alternated wins and losses since their bye week. In Week 7, the Falcons defeated the Miami Dolphins on a last second field goal. On Halloween, Atlanta scored only 13 points in a loss to their division rival, the Carolina Panthers. In Week 9, the Falcons surprised a number of people by going on the road to defeat the New Orleans Saints. Yet, as we have come to expect—Atlanta fell flat on their faces, scoring only three points in a 40-point slaughter against the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday.
Matt Ryan has alternated 300-plus passing yard performances with sub-200 passing yard performances over each of his last four games. Ryan could find life difficult again this week against a Patriots defense that has been arguably the best in the entire NFL over the last month of action. Atlanta’s prospects of having a strong offensive output on Thursday is further hampered by two extremely vulnerable holes at left guard and right tackle on the offensive line. It certainly does not help matters that rookie Kyle Pitts has been the only reliable pass-catching option for Ryan this fall.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Falcons have a lockdown corner in A.J. Terrell, who has shown exponential growth in his sophomore season. However, there is not much else to love from this group. Atlanta has been decent against the run, allowing only 4.2 yards-per-carry. However, only the New York Jets have allowed a higher passer rating to opposing signal callers this year. Opposing quarterbacks have totaled 19 touchdowns against only three interceptions when playing the Falcons in 2021.
Thursday Night Football Picks & Prediction
The Patriots have been one of the best teams in the NFL over the last month. Yet, it is a lot to ask of a rookie quarterback to cover an entire touchdown on the road on a short week. As we saw last week, betting road favorites on a short week can lead to heartbreak for bettors. Instead of playing the spread, bettors should turn their attention to the total in this one. New England’s elite defense is likely to give Matt Ryan and the Falcons trouble from the opening kickoff on Thursday. New England’s offense, though surging, should find itself contained somewhat by an Atlanta defense that has allowed zero completions of 40-plus yards and only 29 completions of 20-plus yards. Do not expect many quick scores in this one. The under has value in this spot.
PICKS: Under 47.5 (-110)
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