NFL Advanced Matchups: Week 10
Before we plunge into the matchups, I want to highlight the importance of always taking the expected game script into account for DFS. Even with Vegas providing us with their point spreads, expected game totals, and direction of wagered money, NFL games usually end up with a complete mind of their own. In addition, gameflow can be disastrous to offensive output. With script and flow in mind, we can have a matchup on paper seemingly scripted in gold bullion that falls well short of expectations due to time of possession limiting opportunities.
Unfortunately, historical coverage shell success is far from exempt from these factors. A positive game script entirely cutting off passing offensive production, or a negative game script leading the defense, for example, toward a zone secondary funnel when we rostered a player to attack its expected man coverage. For instance, Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen were set up for monster games after having their way during the first quarter with the Detroit secondary in Week 9. Cousins had connected with both Jefferson (22 yards) and Thielen (30 yards) on deep targets and hit Irv Smith Jr. on a nine-yard scoring strike.