Best Patriots vs. Bills Wild Card Prop Bets for Saturday
What kind of performances can prop bettors expect from Mac Jones, Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and Hunter Henry on Wild-Card Saturday? Follow along as NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down his four favorite Patriots vs. Bills player props. Not in a state with legal sports betting? Sign up at PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy to start winning cash on NFL player props tonight!
On Saturday evening, the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills will battle at Highmark Stadium. In Week 13, New England defeated Buffalo 14-10, despite totaling only 19 passing yards on three attempts. In the rematch at Gillette Stadium in Week 16, the Bills defeated the Patriots by a final score of 33-21 behind a big day from Josh Allen.
In the third and final matchup between these two teams this season, oddsmakers are anticipating a Buffalo victory–pricing the Bills as 4.5-point home favorites on the spread. As we approach kickoff, the value on the spread and the total has been reduced compared to its opening market price. Instead of forcing action on saturated markets, bettors may find more expected value on player props for this NFL playoff game.
Patriots vs. Bills Player Props
Mac Jones u203.5 passing yards (-115)
PrizePicks: O/U 203.5 Yards
In Week 13, Head Coach Bill Belichick entrusted Mac Jones with only three passing attempts on Monday Night Football against the Bills. In the rematch at Gillette Stadium in Week 16, Belichick allowed Jones to throw the ball 32 times, but the result was a disappointing 145 passing yards, zero touchdowns, and two interceptions. Belichick is smart enough to realize that his path to victory in this game is on the ground, considering that New England has totaled 371 rushing yards on only 73 attempts in their two meetings against Buffalo in 2021. Expect for Belichick to reduce Jones’ responsibility through the air in this one. Unless the Patriots’ wide receivers rack up an extraordinary amount of yards-after-catch on Saturday, Jones is unlikely to eclipse this number. Jones has only gone over this number four times in his last nine games. Playing arguably the league’s best pass defense, the under makes sense here.
Josh Allen – Most Passing Yards (-194)
PrizePicks: N/A
The implied odds on a line of -194 are 65.99 percent. In Week 13, Josh Allen had 126 more passing yards than Mac Jones. In Week 16, Josh Allen had 169 more passing yards than Mac Jones. After two installments of this head-to-head matchup, it is evident to all parties involved that Buffalo’s path to victory is through the air, and New England’s path to victory is on the ground. This line should be much closer to -300. Bettors are often hesitant to play such heavy lines, but there is tremendous value on this prop.
Stefon Diggs u70.5 receiving yards (-110)
PrizePicks: O/U 70.5 Yards
When these two teams met in frigid playing conditions in Week 13, Stefon Diggs led the Bills with four catches for 51 receiving yards. In even colder conditions on Saturday, it is unlikely that Diggs explodes for a huge performance. Diggs is likely to see a considerable amount of coverage from J.C. Jackson in this one, who was one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL during the regular season. Take the under in this spot.
Hunter Henry – Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+270)
PrizePicks: N/A
Hunter Henry is a sneaky threat to find the end zone on Saturday. Despite catching only a single pass in Week 16 against the Bills, Henry was targeted six times. If New England struggles to run the ball without Wynn on the offensive line, Henry could be a threat to sneak out on a potential goal line play for a touchdown. Obviously do not bet the house on a play with such unlikely odds, but if looking for a home run in this matchup – there are worse options than a frequently targeted red zone tight end.
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