NFL Best Bets for Week 12: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under
NFL Best Bets for this week’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under each week of the NFL season. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
Welp. We finally had a week where we didn’t split the picks. Unfortunately, we whiffed on both of them. Chicago eked out 19 points against Green Bay. Najee Harris managed just 3.5 yards per carry against Baltimore but earned a hefty 18 carries with Pittsburgh playing with a lead. The volume boosted him over his rushing yards prop. It’s time to get back on track.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 5-6
- Prop Picks: 5-6
New York Giants Under 17.5 Team Total (-110 on Caesars)
I hate to be the one to rain on the Tommy DeVito parade. It was a great story last season. But, DeVito is a 26-year-old undrafted free agent who had minimal college production. He went 3-3 as a starter in his rookie year, and 2 of the wins came against the worst teams in the league (Washington and New England). DeVito led the Giants’ offense to 17 points per game in his 7 games as the primary quarterback.
The biggest issue is the sacks. DeVito took a preposterous 34 sacks in those 7 games. He ranked top 10 in sacks despite only appearing in 9 games. Tampa Bay has had plenty of issues slowing down opposing passing games, but they can get to the quarterback. The Bucs rank top 10 in sacks and quarterback pressures.
It’s not like this offense has been any good with Daniel Jones under center. The Giants rank dead last in scoring. They’re 26th in EPA/play, and it’s ticked down since the Andrew Thomas injury.
D’Andre Swift Under 58.5 Rushing Yards (-117 on BetMGM)
This line has appeared and disappeared frequently over the past couple days. Swift is apparently dealing with a groin injury, though head coach Matt Eberflus didn’t sound overly concerned. I’m going to include a backup pick in case Swift gets ruled out.
In the first game under new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, carries were split fairly evenly between Swift and Roschon Johnson. Swift’s 14 attempts were his fewest since Week 3. Johnson’s 10 carries tied a season high. Johnson had totaled 11 carries in his 4 previous games. Both backs benefited from Chicago running a silly 68 plays in Week 11. We shouldn’t anticipate that type of volume again.
Minnesota has allowed the fewest rushing yards per game. They’ve held running backs to the 3rd-fewest yards per carry. Notably, the Vikings are tied for the 2nd-lowest explosive run rate (runs of 15+ yards). Swift is generally inefficient on the ground, but he excels at breaking off big plays. He ran for 71 yards on 14 carries in Week 11, and more than half of those yards came on one play. If he can’t bust a long run, he’s in trouble. Add in the competition from Johnson, and it’s a tough spot.
Bonus pick: My other running back fade this week is Chuba Hubbard. His rushing yards prop has ticked down a bit, but it’s still above 50 in most spots. Kansas City is the toughest matchup in the league for running backs, they’re the best against zone concepts (which the Panthers have used at the 5th-highest rate), and Hubbard has to deal with Jonathon Brooks now.
Editor’s Note: Looking for more places to play? Check out our PrizePicks promo code and Underdog Fantasy promo code, two of the best DFS sites available today.
Image Credit: Getty Images