NFL Pick'em Pool Week 10 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
Each week in this article, Nick Galaida will rank each of his selections in order of confidence and also provide reasoning on all of his top picks. As a disclaimer, these picks lock before the first game of the week for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
Happy Week 10! Chalk struck back in a big way last weekend, as we predicted, finishing 13-2 SU in this article – including a perfect 6-0 on our top-six confidence selections.
Week 11 promises to be a little bit more difficult for pick’em pools, with only three teams favored by more than a touchdown, none of which are playing at home.
This is my 6th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Since 2021, we have correctly predicted the winner of 64% of all NFL regular season contests. In 2025, this article went 17-1 on its top prediction of the week and 57-14 (80.3%) on top-4 selections.
We are locked in for Week 10 and ready to do everything we can to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again.
Below, we have our Week 10 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
NFL Week 10 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 10 Selections
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
2. Buffalo Bills
3. Seattle Seahawks
4. Los Angeles Rams
5. Houston Texans
6. Cincinnati Bengals
7. Kansas City Chiefs
8. Green Bay Packers
9. San Francisco 49ers
10. New England Patriots
11. Indianapolis Colts
12. Carolina Panthers
13. Washington Commanders
14. Los Angeles Chargers
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy: Week 10
Jaguars (vs. Titans)
The Jaguars don’t play with their food. They have played 6 games this season against teams with 5 or fewer wins – Jacksonville has finished each of those contests with a positive net success rate (NSR).
Overall, the Jaguars are 2nd in my schedule-adjusted EPA/play ratings, with a top-6 offense and defense. The Titans rank 32nd, with a bottom-5 ranking on both sides of the football.
Trevor Lawrence is the superior quarterback in this matchup. Liam Coen is the superior head coach. It wouldn’t be surprising to see this game turn into a rout.
Bills (vs. Jets)
Earlier this season, Josh Allen was carrying the entire load for the Bills en route to a strong start to the 2026 campaign. Lately, Buffalo’s defense has been contributing at a high level, too.
The Bills defense ranks 14th in my schedule-adjusted EPA/play ratings following consecutive games of holding their opponent to 10 points or fewer. Of course, facing Joe Fagnano and Carson Wentz isn’t a true litmus test, but their defense has nonetheless played well in those games.
Meanwhile, the Jets continue to find ways to lose games. They are 1-5 SU in one-score games this season, which is a reflection of their head coach more than anything else. They continue to make inexcusable mistakes at key points in games, and that doesn’t look likely to change in the near future.
Expect Allen and company to roll here.
Seahawks (vs. Raiders)
Is there a tougher task for a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start than to face a defending Super Bowl champion defense? Just about the only thing that could make this a tougher test for Fernando Mendoza would be if this game were played on the road.
Seattle’s defense has been elite again in 2026, ranking 4th in schedule-adjusted EPA/play and 2nd in success rate. Head coach Mike Macdonald is going to make it tough for Mendoza to find much success this weekend.
Las Vegas has allowed 30+ points in 6 consecutive games. If Seattle can get anywhere near that number in Week 10, they are likely to leave town with a victory.
Rams (vs. Cardinals)
The Rams have not been good offensively of late. They scored only 16 points against the Cardinals in Week 6, went nearly the entire first half against the Chargers without a first down, and had only 6 points in the first half last weekend against the Commanders.
Now, they will be without Puka Nacua for the foreseeable future.
All of that said, they still have Sean McVay on the sidelines and Matthew Stafford under center. That counts for a lot against an Arizona team that will be running out their third-string rookie quarterback in Week 10.
The Rams have a strong ground attack and the better defense in this matchup, which should be enough for a win – even if they don’t cover the spread.
Texans (vs. Browns)
Are we sure the Browns are a good football team? They have 5 wins this season, but all of them have come by 4 points or fewer. They rank only 23rd in my schedule-adjusted EPA/play ratings and 22nd in success rate. Cleveland has been outgained by 214 yards in their 9 games.
The Texans have only three wins, but four of their five losses have come in one-score games. They had a 64.9% win probability in the 4th quarter against the Bills and a 78.5% win probability in the 4th quarter against the Cowboys as the two most notable examples.
There have been 31 quarterbacks who have played at least 5 games this season – CJ Stroud ranks 9th in schedule-adjusted EPA/play. Deshaun Watson ranks 17th and has been trending down for the last month. He hasn’t posted a positive EPA/play in a game since Week 4.
Houston is the better team on both sides of the ball here. They should be able to do enough to win and keep their playoff hopes alive for another week.
2026 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 11-5
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 8-8
- Week 4: 6-10
- Week 5: 11-3-1
- Week 6: 7-7
- Week 7: 8-6
- Week 8: 10-4
- Week 9: 13-2
Image Credit: Imagn